Week 15 Lookaheads

Looking at early lines + a new name emerges for comeback player of the year?

Nice win for the Lions, the Deep Dive 2nd Half over, the newsletter play, and honestly, for anyone with the good sense to care about market entry. All the early Packers money was rewarded, and anyone who bought back with the Lions at -3 at least got a push.

The biggest storyline afterward is Man Campbell’s decision to go for it on 4th down late. I think it’s probably a 50/50 thing, but considering the offensive line, the running backs, and his penchant for doing it anyway, I’m fine with it.

The “other” story that popped out of this was a bit more surprising, and maybe it isn’t as wide-spread as I think. Maybe I’m stuck in the echo chamber of gambling/NFL Twitter, but I saw at least a couple of calls for a long-shot play on Tim Patrick to be comeback player of the year. This is a market I’ve been purposely avoiding all year, but the #discourse has drug me back in again.

After last year, I don’t actually know that the market is a good indicator of the actual sentiment of the voters, but I certainly understand the idea behind playing some long shots in this market. It was supposed to be a two-horse race between the old dudes with Achilles injuries, and neither is really delivering right now.

The issue I have with the argument from the poster above is the comparison to Flacco and how he managed to win the voters’ hearts with a December push. I still think that’s the path, but Joe Flacco was a Super Bowl-winning QB who single-handedly saved a team’s season. Tim Patrick had a nice game this week, but he’s stuck on a team with 5-6 offensive weapons ahead of him and likely has some pretty quiet games down the stretch and certainly won’t be given a heaping helping of credit for the Lions’ success.

All this to say: I really don’t know how hard the league is going to push the “new criteria,” and this could be a second straight year where we get very surprising results as each voter has slightly different interpretations of the rules. I won’t be getting involved here, and while I don’t think Tim Patrick is a good bet (especially now at 35/1), I love the idea of finding the road map to crushing it in December.

If you think Kyler is going to win the division, or that Richardson finds a way to sneak into the playoffs, maybe this isn’t the worst way to get a little more money down in a fun/horrible awards market.

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Lookaheads

  • Pittsburgh -6 is now -7 in the market: gold star for me (even though I’m banking on this being a low-scoring game and back the under as well)

  • KC -4.5 is down to -4 and I’ll be stubbornly doubling down. I still don’t know about the market’s rating for the Chargers.

  • ATL/MIN over 46.5 is down to 46 at most shops, so it's working against me, but I suppose it's not crossing key numbers (cope).

  • Dallas +6 is another mild move, this time in my favor, down to +5.5 for MNF. Lots of time for that market to shape up yet.

This week will be a bit lighter.

  • Cincy -3.5 @ Tennessee: yeah, it’s a dead team, but with the injuries in the secondary for the Titans and Joey B showing no signs of stopping, I make this closer to -5 with a lot of scenarios for a blowout.

  • Tampa Bay +3 @ LAC: Not only do I price this around +1.5, but my Bucs play the Raiders at home, while the Chargers head to LAC. Chalk doesn’t always hold. But, if it does, this price could improve.

I do show some value on Arizona -7 over the Pats next week, but with the Cardinals facing a tough opponent and the Patriots on bye, I don’t know if it’d be wise to bank on this gaining value.

Rams +3 is tempting as well, but with LA a home underdog this week and the 49ers health status so up in the air, I’m not worried about this number disappearing on me.

Same goes for the Panthers facing the Cowboys next week. I think I may just end up with a better price if I wait, as Carolina could get full-on embarrassed this week, and Dallas has a soft Cincy defense to look forward to.

Maybe this is the best use of lookahead pricing and evaluation: finding some spots extra early to monitor and wait on.

Keeping an eye on👀

weather

  • Basically just Jacksonville at Tennesee this week. Will it rain or won’t it? 50% chance right now.

  • Small chances of rain in Pittsburgh as well, with the wind forecast starting to pick up as well.

injuries

  • Again, basically all the players for the 49ers.

  • DK Metcalf and Kenneth Walker didn’t practice for the ‘Hawks on Thursday

  • Star rookie pass rusher Jared Verse found himself on the Rams’ injury report

  • Ladd McConkey has been limited in practice for the Chargers

  • TE Dallas Goedert doesn’t seem likely to play, but it's worth seeing about him today.

  • Ja’Marr Chase was limited in practice on Thursday.

  • CeeDee Lamb was a DNP on Thursday

  • Mike Evans and Bucky Irving DNP on Thursday for the Buccos

  • The Raiders might be in trouble, AOC was out with an illness yesterday. Jakobi Meyers and Zamir White were also out.

  • Tyreek Hill is still fighting a wrist injury.

  • The Jets have a few key spotsthat are not practicing with Breece Hall, Sauce Gardner, and CJ Mosely out on Thursday.

  • Tennessee’s defense has a pile of injuries.

  • Browns WR Cedric Tillman is still in the concussion protocol.

  • Keon Coleman to return this week? He and Dalton Kincaid have been limited.

There is not much for teaser legs this week; maybe when we wake up on Sunday. I’m heading to the beach as I already got yelled at for putting this newsletter together on vacation.

See ya Sunday morning! Have a GREAT WEEKEND!