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Market

Lookahead prices were as high as +6 for the Packers in this one and reopened much lower on Sunday with most shops showing a +3.5 after the Thanksgiving results (and possibly the extra injuries for the Lions’ defense). Saw some movement down to 3 after more Packers money came into the market, but we’ve returned to 3.5 as the Lions saw some buyback when the smaller price showed.

It is less of a story on the total, with the lookahead price sitting at 51.5 and opening Sunday night a half-point lower. A little bit of back and forth over the week, but it never strayed far from those two prices and currently sits at

Injuries

Lions

LT Taylor Decker will miss his second straight game with MCL and ankle injuries. The Lions will also be thin at the defensive line with DT DJ Reader (shoulder), DE Josh Paschal (knee), and DT Levi Onwuzurike (hamstring). LB Malcolm Rodriguez (ACL) and DL Mekhi Wingo (knee) headed to the IR last week and will miss the rest of the season.

Cornerbacks Emmanuel Mosely and Carlton Davis are good to go.

Packers

Green Bay will again be down CB Jaire Alexander (knee) and WR Romeo Doubs (concussion). Also sitting out are LB Edgerrin Cooper (hamstring) and CB Corey Ballentine (knee).

Running back Josh Jacobs was limited in practice this week, but it’s just a precaution to make sure he gets fewer reps on his calf; he’ll go into the game without a designation.

Matchup

One of my gripes about TNF is that teams don’t get a full week to prepare and sometimes it shows. So, it’s nice that we get our annual “TNF with two teams that played on Thanksgiving and get a normal amount of rest, recovery, and prep time” game.

Looking back at the first matchup, you’ll find a box score where the Packers outgained the Lions by 150 yards, almost two yards per play, but lost by 10. They went 1-4 in the red zone, 3-12 on third down, and threw a pick-six on a drive that could have taken them into halftime tied rather than down 17-3.

I want to think the offense should have at least that much success again, especially given the number of defensive injuries for the Lions, but even that just feels like a net neutral with how well the Detroit offense is moving at times right now. Playing at least that good, if not better, seems like the bare minimum to keep pace.

Whenever you’re looking at the second match of the year between two divisional foes, you do have to ask yourself what’s changed since the first game. Maybe not as obvious since he was playing through it all, but Jordan Love’s health is vastly improved from a month ago. He had been fighting knee and groin injuries that were hampering his ability to move around, but now he looks much more comfortable and mobile. Over the past two weeks, he has been your NFL EPA/play leader and has been pushing the ball down the field more efficiently and accurately.

In the end, though, Jordan Love doesn’t play DT or LB, and while improving, it’s still not a great run defense for the Packers when facing good rushing offenses. I do not see a way for them to win this one with the D.

The Lions, as always, are going to get theirs.

Love and LaFleur are going to have to find a way to make it happen in the red zone this time around. Maybe they’re trending that way at the right time. Again, looking at the past two games, they’ve been 8/10 on converting those opportunities to TDs. If they can’t find a way to keep that rolling, the Packers faithful had better be ready to travel for the playoffs.

At home, amid a long winning streak, a win here would all but sew up the division title for the Lions. Technically, they haven’t even clinched a playoff spot yet, but they likely will have that taken care of at the end of the weekend (scenarios).

Betting

My ratings:

Lions: #4 offense, #7 defense

Packers: #6 offense, #12 defense

My power ratings say that I should be betting on the Packers. Still, as I mentioned yesterday, if that’s what they could limit Tua to in a freezing-cold game, I’m not confident in the defense holding the Lions’ offense and worry about a track meet.

I want to back the Packers, and a team total can win even without the defense holding down the Lions. If the Lions were to score and score quickly to give Love and company the ball back and force some aggressive play, I guess I wouldn’t mind.

Packers Team Total over 23.5 -122

Futures

I promised I’d run my updated power numbers for the week through the simulator and look at pricing. Still, with the AFC playoff picture pretty much tidied up and the only question marks outside of the NFC West being the positioning of the three NFC North teams, I sadly didn’t find much value out there.

There are a couple of things out there that I had an edge on:

Baltimore Ravens Super Bowl +1200 (DK)

Denver Broncos AFC Champs +4000 (DK)

Tampa Bay Bucs over 9.5 wins +142 (FD)

Seattle Seahawks over 9.5 wins +125 (DK)

Las Vegas Raiders over 3.5 wins -135 (MGM)

Tennessee Titans under 5.5 wins -155 (MGM)

The best part is that I’m writing this from the Philly airport, so I (a Minnesota resident) don’t even have to go hunt down the next best prices I can find on the offshores. I’m in a legal state, baby!

We’ll revisit these bets in a couple of weeks. Enjoy the game tonight!

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