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Week 14 NFL Power Ratings
Bills and Eagles Charging up, but Detroit is still on top
Carolina š
I know Iāve alerady gushed about Bryce Young once, but Christ on a cracker, this is a different person playing football right now.
The crazy segment of the internet pushed a conspiracy theory a few years ago that Damar Hamlin actually died on the field that night and what we were seeing waving to us from the press boxes after his recovery was actually a clone.
I (a sane person) never bought into that for obvious reasons but, if you floated the same theory to me regarding Bryce Young, I just may hesitate for a moment before dismissing it.
No longer a sad lonely dot on the far left/bottom of charts, Bryce has been closing in on something I never thought weād see: league average. It doesnāt change much about how this year ends up for Carolina. The defense is still abhorrant, the offense has more holes than Sonny Corleone at a tollbooth, and the nine losses sort of eliminate them from some late season run even in the joke of a division they reside in.
I suppose this is more of an exciting revalation for next seasonās team. Looking forward to what this team can do in free agency and the draft to finally release them from this post-Cam funk (last winning record was in 2017).
A lot of glazing for my 27th rated team, but Iāve always been on record as saying: more good quarterbacks make for a better product. We should cheer for them all to succeed.
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Other upgrades: Tampa, Philly, Green Bay
Even in a pretty poor showing from the defense, the Tampa offense looked solid at times and may have gotten the best of the rookie running backs in Bucky Irving. It wasnāt Bakerās best day, but they managed a top-5 running offense vs Carolina.
The Packers defense giving up what they did to Tua (by all acconts, a top-5 performance) has me concerned for this weekend, but the offense had the 2nd best EPA/dropback week, only behind the Buffalo Bills.
The Eagles got a big win even after getting punched in the mouth to start the day. I was a bit worried about the defense after some losses up front, but this was a complete performance heading into the home stretch.
Tennessee š
On the surface, the stats donāt look that horrible, but if you sort out some garbage time, this is what you get:
Unable to get much going on the ground while the defense was getting ragdolled, it got out of hand in a hurry last week. A bottom-2 performance from the offense and the defense against a team that had been reeling a bit. Possilbly down another cornerback after Roger McCreary suffered a shoulder injury.
Other downgrades: DET, SF, LAC
I donāt want to say bad things about Detroit. I simply had them a titch too high. The defensive injuries are mounting at the wrong time for a team that has the Vikings and Eagles hot on their heels. Going from the presumptive one seed to a wildcard isnāt that wild of an outcome if they are forced to be perfect on offense for the final five weeks.
The 49ers are injured. Not sure how much more I need to elaborate on that. Sending two RBs to the IR and possibly missing your best offensive and defensive linemen again this week may be the end of trying to catch up and win the NFC West
The Chargers defense did a great job of standing in the way of Kirk Cousinsā errant passes, but the offense was absolute ass in the 2nd half. If the Falcons had just punted on every first down, the game would have likely been closer. A look at 2nd half performances from all 32 teams last week:
Biggest Disagreements
Iāll stick to sides since Iām not 100% done with getting my totals ready for the week. A peek at three sides where my raw numbers arenāt lining up with the market.
Kansas City -4 (My price KC -6) - As I just pointed out, I wasnāt impressed by Greg Romanās offense vs my 27th-rated Atlanta defense last week and with the Chiefs getting an extra day to prep for a division foe, I make this price closer to a TD. I donāt love laying big prices with Kansas City, so Iāll need some prodding to take this.
NYJ +6 (My Price NYJ +4.5) - There is Jets steam every week and I try to avoid it despite the fact that they look good on paper for me every week as well. I think this number is more derived from how the Jets offense should match up here and may just end up playing this over 45 instead of relying on Rodgers for 60 minutes.
Chicago +4 (my price CHI +2.5) - Coming off extra rest, getting rid of the coach the whole team/city hated, the 49ers season likely cooked. Plenty of reasons to talk myself into taking the Bears to keep it close.
Futures
After I tighten things up again, Iāll run my updated power numbers through the simulator again to see what value lies out there this week. Iāll include it in tomorrowās TNF newsletter if I find anything.
A quick review of how these are doing:
Rams/Seahawks both improved greatly (+280/+150) but still have a chance for both to lose to the Cardinals. Still a long way to go but at least the 49ers dropped off.
Commanders to win the division is like 20/1 now. VERY underwater.
Vikings to win the North still around +500, holding steady. Baltimore improved slightly as well, +140 at most shops.
My AFC āto make the playoffs betsā appear to have at least high chance to breakeven after Miami lost. Denver is -240 to make it while the Colts are +210. The next most likely teams to ruin this are Miami +450 and Cincy +1300.
šØPodcast Tonight TodayšØ
Iām flying out to Florida early tomorrow for a few days on the beach followed by a week at sea, so weāve gotta get the live stream done early again this week.
NOON Central time live on the YouTube channel and released later on in podcast form.
Whatās on the Docket for Tomorrow?
TNF Best Bets
First TD scorer darts
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