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My Week 13 Power Ratings Update

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Last week: I worried about the downfall of the Commanders with Jayden’s injury, but my numbers still thought it was a bad price, and then everything went wrong. Washington lost, Tennessee won, and my -7.5 is underwater like Miami is 30 years.

The other three have aged a little better, especially the Cleveland +6.5 for Monday night (down to +5.5). Falcons +1.5 was looking like a puzzling equity loss, but the market is starting to turn on that and is now +1 across the board. Indy -2.5 is slowly moving in the right direction but is having trouble moving up to the key number and, for the most part, has just been indexed up to -120 at most shops. So, as usual, a bit of a mixed bag, but more good news than bad.

This week:

Pittsburgh -6: I don’t even think I make this price all that much bigger than this, but situationally, it’s a bit of a nightmare for the Browns, coming off a Monday night game at altitude on their 2nd straight road game with the Steelers able to get some measure of revenge.

Kansas City -4.5: Another rough schedule spot with the Chargers traveling to play a cold weather game against a divisional foe (who has an extra day’s rest) on their 2nd straight week of travel after getting back from Atlanta. I love the Chargers, but think this could get bet out.

Atlanta/Minnesota is over 46.5. Even if the Falcons’ defense gets healthier, this total should be 48, in my opinion.

Dallas +6: This one sucksssss, but even right now, my pricing can’t quite get to a spot where Cincy is ~8 points better on a neutral field considering the matchup against the Dallas offense (now with Brandin Cooks!). Dallas has 10 days of rest here, and there’s a chance that Cincy will get a mild downgrade by the market if they look poor against the Pittsburgh defense this week.

Black Friday Game

Las Vegas at Kansas City -13, total 42.5

My fair prices: Kansas City -11.64, 43.1

No strong opinions on this one, but now that AOC is in at QB, it’s clearly a better situation than what I worried we’d see after Minshew went down last week. The Chiefs are one of the last teams in the world I’d be excited to lay a big number with, but with cornerbacks and running backs still hurt for the Raiders, there’s no chance I’m going to war with them (until we get like a +19.5 Live line in the third quarter so I can sweat some garbage time Raidas).

A couple of tight end props in this one is all I landed on. Obviously, Bowers needs to be the crux of the game plan if they want to have a chance, and I’ve loved how the Chiefs have been using Noah Gray, and not just as an outlet; he’s getting some intermediate area love. Not so sure he keeps up the pace of two TDs per game, but with issues in the secondary for the Raiders, he could hit his yardage total on one nice clear out route underneath.

Brock Bowers o6.5 receptions -104
Noah Gray o20.5 yards -110

good luck, have fun

Keeping an eye on

weather

• IT’S GOING TO SNOW IN BUFFALO. We just need to get a better grib on how bad it’s going to be. Forecasts fall between “light snow” and “snowglobe from hell”

• There are some chances of snow in Kansas City, but it seems those keep diminishing, and it’ll just be a normal, cold day on the plains.

• Cincinnati should be frigid as well, with wind-chill temperatures possibly going down below 20.

• There is not much for wind games, with the biggest possibility being in the Meadowlands for the Seattle-New York Jets game. 10-15 mph projected right now.

injuries worth monitoring

• The entire 49ers team

• Breece Hall was limited on Thursday; maybe he’s heading in the right direction?

• DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are missing practices

• Roquan Smith is still limited

• Texans DE due Will Anderson and Denico Autry

• All the Colts WRs: Josh Downs, Ashton Dulin, & Alec Pierce

• The Falcons defense, especially Troy Andersen

• Darius Slay’s concussion status for Philly

• DeVonta Smith, as well

• Browns: Cedric Tillman and Jed Wills (DNPs)

• Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman for the Bills

• Denver CB Riley Moss (not practicing Thursday)

• Vikes TE Josh Oliver

• Alex Highsmith may be coming back for the Steelers.

• Jets LB C.J. Mosley possibly getting back to action.

Week 18 Teaser Rankings (Best to Worst)

Mixed results last week, but the real kick in the ass was the Houston -7.5 leg not getting there despite many late chances to tie/take the lead. Detroit and Miami were seemingly never in doubt, while Chargers +2.5 snuck in the back door.

Very light week with some ugly ones and a few I’ll list as they are trending toward being in the basic strategy leg area but currently aren’t quite there. The rankings are the rankings but for the record, I hate all of these and will be using them very lightly this weekend.

See ya Sunday morning! Enjoy the Black Friday Deals.