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Monday Night Double Header: Best Bets
A look back at a profitable weeked, a teaser, a future, and some first TD scorers
Get this NFL betting newsletter in your inbox six days a week, including a Sunday morning run-down of everything I’m betting on that week.
I haven’t taken it all in yet, lots to catch up on, but from an entertainment standpoint, it was a pretty fun Sunday of ball.
My quick takeaways from each game yesterday:
GB/ATL - The Packers missed Aaron Jones a ton. Going 0-4 on 3rd and 4th down in the 4th quarter lost ‘em the game. Bijan is #good, and maybe Art Smith knows what he’s doing.
BUF/LV - The Bills got right by turning into a dink-and-dunk offense at times and made it look easy. Raiders losing another WR would be crippling for this offense, Adams health is a big one to monitor this week.
If I could choose one play that encapsulates what the Bills & Josh Allen did on Sunday, this would be it..
*Jam Crosby w/ Kincaid to buy time
*Allen goes through progressions
*Decides not to force the issue
*Kincaid releases for the easy gain— Erik Turner Cover 1 Jefe (@ErikJTurner)
10:45 AM • Sep 18, 2023
BAL/CIN - Lamar looked way more comfortable, great win considering the injuries they came in with. The Bengals have started slow before, but if Joe’s calf isn’t right, this time could be different. (update: the betting market doesn’t think Joe is healthy)
SEA/DET - Great bounce-back game by Geno Smith despite missing both starting OTs. Lions defense is still shit, but we may get to unleash Gibbs going forward with Montgomery missing time?
CHI/TB - The Bears’ play calling was still rough outside of the scripted first drive, and Fields is still struggling. Baker is 2-0 but finally has to play a good defense next week.
Justin Fields has to be better than this: #Bears
— ImBearingDown (@ImBearingDown)
6:18 PM • Sep 17, 2023
KC/JAX - The Chiefs’ defense looked really good, next week vs. Chicago should be a great way to get the offense going. Jags did a good job of keeping the KC offense in check as well, but going 0-3 in the Red Zone isn’t going to win you games in Kansas City.
IND/HOU - Anthony Richardson is a legit offensive weapon and I hope he’s not missing time. C.J. Stroud needs his offensive line to get healthy or it’s going to be hard to judge how this season went.
SF/LAR - 49ers defense had some very nice 2nd half adjustments in putting away the Rams, saw some cracks in Purdy though. Puka Nakua is real and now 3rd favorite for rookie of the year! BIT OF A WEIRD ENDING.
The 49ers were favored by 7.5 points and led 30-20 with 4 seconds left before the Rams decided to kick a field goal as time expired to lose by 7 points, 30-23.
— Arash Markazi (@ArashMarkazi)
11:24 PM • Sep 17, 2023
NYG/ARZ - Giants season went from funny to sad in that 1st half, salvaged things with the comeback but now get SF. Dobbs making the most of this opportunity, two feisty losses is the perfect tank so far.
NYJ/DAL - Zach Wilson is bad, not breaking news. Going to be a frustrating season for the stars in NY. The Cowboys haven’t had a tough test yet and won’t get one next week; Micah Parsons is an alien.
WAS/DEN - We saw some life out of Russell Wilson, unfortunately, the defense couldn’t keep Howell down and a great offensive output was wasted. Maybe Bienemy has something cooking in DC, another big test this week hosting Buffalo.
The ball placement on Sam Howell's two TD throws vs. Denver ...
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala)
2:59 PM • Sep 18, 2023
SNF: MIA/NE -Tua did it against a good defense that was very transparent about taking away the deep part of the field. He deserves his MVP favorite status for now. The Pats are the best 0-2 team in the league, this schedule has been rough.
Betting
Very good Sunday again. Always nice to start the season collecting on Monday.
I should just make this the last newsletter, not likely to have a week this good again. But, on top of hitting the prop play and first TD scorer on TNF:
✅Colts Moneyline +100
✅Lions Team Total over 26.5 -110
✅Buffalo/Dallas six-point teaser
✅Tennessee/Los Angeles over 45.5 -110
❌Patriots Moneyline +134 (I still think that lineman had a first down)
Market
This total opened 41 and took immediate money down, working its way to the current 39.5.
New Orleans took some early money to move this up to the -3. A little bit of back-and-forth money coming in on the sides, but never enough to really push it off the key number for long so far.
Matchup
D.J. Chark is back after a full practice on Friday, but the Carolina defense will be without Jaycee Horn, who was placed on the IR this week with a hamstring injury. It’s a home game, but they’ll probably need Bryce Young to stop throwing balls to the opposing safeties to stay in this one. We’ll see how much having his WR1 back helps.
The Saints are fairly healthy and just like Carolina, probably should have put up a few more points last week. They got the win and moved the ball nicely, but going 1-4 in the red zone left things in doubt right up until the end. If Derek Carr continues to look good in this offense, this team could end up being a very tough draw from one of the wildcards who would have to head to New Orleans in January.
Betting
I don’t have any action on this one, but I don’t have some advice. If you like the Saints to get the win here, you may want to think about getting a bet down on them to win the NFC South as well. It’s +155 at FanDuel right now.
The Falcons will be underdogs of 3-4 points the next two weeks, the Bucs take on a rested Philly team before heading to New Orleans, and the Panthers may not be part of the equation.
The Saints do have a tough test up in Green Bay next week, but I really think we’re sitting here after week four with the Falcons and Bucs 2-2 each while the Saints have moved into the division lead with a 3-1/4-0 record and the price would be much more expensive. Just some food for thought, I’m taking a small piece of it.
Market
Nothing but under money here. Injuries on both sides, sluggish offenses in week one, and the familiarity of the two teams have driven this price down to 38 after opening up at 42.
Cleveland has been the bet side after opening as a 1 point underdog. The ugly performance vs. SF and the loss of Dionte Johnson and Cam Heyward left the market not wanting to back Pittsburgh as a small favorite, even at home.
Matchup
Pickett looked very frazzled last week, missing open receivers and throwing two picks. Not that much easier of a task this week versus Myles Garrett and a Cleveland defense that held Cincinnati to 2.6 yards per play last week. A loss here would be a backbreaker for hopes of winning the division with Baltimore already 2-0 and a fair-sized favorite in week 3.
Cleveland is banged up as well, losing RT Jack Conklin for the year, and as of right now looking like they’ll be playing without their top WR in Amari Cooper. Safety Juan Thornhill is questionable but did get some limited practice Friday after missing last week.
Source: #Browns WR Amari Cooper (groin) still was not feeling 100% ready to go this morning, but will give it a go in warmups today and go from there. Still a game time decision, but was in pain this morning.
— Brad Stainbrook (@StainbrookNFL)
5:10 PM • Sep 18, 2023
Betting
Opening another teaser! The Steelers are injured and missing Cam Heyward is going to hurt versus Nick Chubb but I was not impressed with Deshaun Watson last week and still think we see a tight game here. Steelers being faded down into a +2 with a low total helps me get over all the injuries.
Next week’s leg will be Baltimore. I’m not sure if it’ll be Minshew or Richardson, either way, I don’t trust the Indy secondary on the road against an actual offense.
It will be interesting to see what the market does if Richardson is ruled out, I have it as a very small downgrade to Minshew.
6-point Teaser: Pittsburgh +8/Baltimore -1.5
Teasers have been ripping so far this year, so if I lose a second with the Steelers, it may be time to re-evaluate how I feel about this squad.
Calhoun is back with his best bets for Cleveland/Pittsburgh first TD scorer. I went ahead and hunted down the best number I could find in the legal books, but I didn’t check everywhere, so, by all means, poke around a bit and let me know if you find something better.
Elijah Moore +1200 (FD)
Jaylen Warren +1300 (DK)
George Pickens +1300 (FD)
Deshaun Watson +2000 (MGM)
You can be the smart one this week at the water cooler when you remind your buddies that actually it’s NOT a second straight trip to the West Coast for the Giants on a short week. They’ll be staying in Arizona before heading up to the Bay to take on the 49ers on TNF. Things may be a little messy for them so far, but at least they planned ahead.
The 49ers are currently 10.5-point favorites at home, the total is 45.5
What’s on the docket for tomorrow?
A look at how all the awards markets are shaking out and some buy low opportunities on some players and coaches with a ton of football left. Probably look at the wildness that is the LAR/CIN line as well.