Betting Markets

Lookahead lines before last week’s games opened Eagles -7 and 48. Reopened at 48.5 and -7.5 on Monday and has taken a steady stream of Vikings money, with some places dipping as low as Vikings +5.5. A couple of places have reached 50 on the total, but for the most part the market was pushed up to 49.5 currently.

Injuries

Minnesota

Starting Center Garrett Bradbury is out with a back injury he suffered vs. Tampa.

Left Tackle Christian Darrisaw is listed as questionable and outside LB Marcus Davenport is questionable with an ankle as well. Davenport missed last week’s game as well.

Philadelphia

The Eagles will be a little shorthanded on defense with CB James Bradberry and S Reed Blankenship ruled out and LB Nakobe Dean placed on IR this week. Running Back Kenneth Gainwell will also miss the game with a rib injury.

Fletcher Cox is the only player on the injury report with a chance to play. He’s listed as questionable with a rib injury.

Game Thoughts

Neither offense was nearly as crisp as we expected from them last week, both getting graded out as middle-of-the-pack performances. To be fair, they both played good to great defenses and have chances to turn it around this week, but that seems to apply much more heavily to the Eagles getting a shot at the Vikings after having to take on a Belichick defense.

Maybe we’re a bit too anchored to last year’s matchup between these two teams, but honestly not much has changed in the makeup of either squad. If the new regime under Flores tries to blitz as much as they did last week versus Tampa Bay and leaves these CBs on an island with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, an 0-2 start seems likely. I understand the Vikings money coming in on the other side of 6 and 7 but I’m fine passing on the side here at the price.

The total feels a bit dicey if the Vikings’ injuries up front start to manifest a ton of pressure on Kirk Cousins. Lots of high-end receiving weapons in this game to go with the injuries in the defensive backfield (Philly) or lack of good corners (Minnesota). I’d lean towards the over here, but again don’t have any action at the current number.

Prop Bet

I love Jordan Addison, I think he has a shot at a big year, but it appears they are still easing him in a bit. K.J. Osborne outsnapped him last week 40 to 29 and ran routes on 85% of dropbacks compared to 61% for Addison. I don’t think this is the plan all year and it may even become a bit more even this week.

With Addison definitely being more of a deep threat I like Osborne to get more looks again this week as the beat-up offensive line versus Philly’s defensive front will more than likely have Cousins needing to get the ball out quicker and increase the target shares of Osborne, Hockenson and the running backs.

Osborne averaged 38.2 yards per game last year on roughly five targets and 3.5 catches per game. I like him for 6-7 targets here and if the game goes according to plan and the Vikings are trailing, more pass-heavy game scripts should help that even more. Darius Slay will play strictly on one side of the field sometimes, but when it’s called for against a stud WR (last year vs. MIN being one of those times), he’ll shadow a guy like Jefferson. I expect Osborn to avoid the CB1 for most of the game as well, and with the injuries to Bradberry and Blankenship the assignment for everyone gets a little easier (as long as Cousins isn’t lying under Jalen Carter with the ball.)

I’m betting these small, but I’m still 0-8 on hitting one this year with the nasty chalk of ARSB and Stephon Diggs coming in on Thursday and Monday.

I did what any man would do: I turned to a guy who was better at this than me and asked Link Calhoun who he was taking. It just worked out that I like them all well and think I’m finally in for some joy to start a primetime game.

I did my best to hunt down the best of the numbers that I could find in the legal books, so try not to get numbers too much worse than these:

Devonta Smith +1000

Dallas Goedert +1400

T.J. Hockenson +1700

K.J. Osborne +2700

see ya at halftime…

Few decent-sized movements in the market here, silly to think too hard about it after just a single week, but to be fair the writing may be on the wall for a few of the “guys who can win this” list I made before the season started.

Nice wins for Matt LaFleur and Dan Campbell. It really feels like whichever of them wins the NFC North after missing the playoffs last year is VERY LIVE. Arthur Smith’s odds actually dropped a little bit after a win, and 2017 winner, Sean McVay saw a big jump as well after a nice road win in the division to start the season (do it against San Fransisco, and then we can talk).

Two quick ones I wanted to highlight:

Big Drop: Matt Eberflus, Bears

Was +1600, Now +3000

Not only did the Bears lose a divisional game, but they also had a WR they traded for give a half-assed effort and only got two targets to their new WR1. They rolled out a poor offensive game plan and they made Jordan Love look like he’s been doing this for a while. I don’t see a ton of scenarios where they right this ship quick enough to get him back in the conversation.

Big Gain: Mike McDaniel, Dolphins

Was +2000, Now +1300

We were promised a great offensive mind, and what we saw last week was a great bleeping offense. Everyone else in the division did him a favor: The Bills lost, the Pats lost, and the Jets lost (their QB). A fun offense that gets noticed and the wins that come with it will be big but it feels like winning the division for the first time since 2008 would really put him over the top.

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