🍻Friday Free Bet: Free Prop Bet for Lions/Ravens

Connor Allen's Free Prop, a TNF Recap, & my Week 7 Teaser Leg Rankings

Author

Andy Molitor
October 20, 2023

I moved the prop play to first billing last Friday and while I’m not a superstitious guy, maybe you are, so we’re keeping it batting lead-off until it loses.

Free Prop

Lions vs Ravens: Connor Allen Likes His Unders

This week, our good buddy from 4for4 has a take on the backfield situation in Baltimore:

Gus Edwards under 44.5 rushing yards -115

“The Lions are yet to allow a single running back to eclipse 43 yards so far this season and have been absolutely dominant in the running game. The most yards to a back so far is when Kenneth Walker had 43 yards on 17 carries. They are allowing just 3.08 yards per carry so far and are 5th in rushing success rate allowed. They are top-5 in both yards before and after contact per attempt as well.

Edwards led the team in carries but is still in a timeshare with Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell figures to play a role sooner than later. In the last three weeks the Ravens have either seen a massively positive game script or a great matchup and Edwards has barely squeaked over this total. Play to 42.5”

Obviously, follow Connor on Twitter for more NFL betting content, and get in the 4for4 Discord if you want to see everything he’s betting each week.

…and if you’re around this afternoon and want more free prop bets, be sure to check out the live stream on the 4for4Bets YouTube.

They will have AT LEAST SIX MORE FREE PROPS for the weekend⬇⬇⬇


I never thought I’d enjoy seeing teams being aggressive on 4th down so little. Bad call on the under, as soon as Trevor took off on the first scramble I knew I was in bad shape.

The 4th down calls and the defensive TD didn’t help, but there was a pretty solid amount of yards in this one, I’m certainly not going to call it a “bad beat” just because of some big plays here or there.

The Morning After: Jaguars Look Like the Contenders We Expected; Derek Carr's Frustration Boils Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars seem to be past their early season stumble, while the Saints are nearing their breaking point.

The Jags seem to be back in a spot where they have a solid grip on the AFC South once again. With Tennessee and Indianapolis finding themselves turning to backup QBs, they’ll likely just have to fend off the CJ Stroud-led Texans to return to the playoffs as a division winner this season.

The Saints on the other hand are right back in the muck with the NFC South mess and still probably a gross three-team race going forward. The winner of the Falcons-Bucs game will take possession of the lead for now, but neither of the three teams has shown an ability to consistently win. We may be looking at an 8-9 division winner here.

As far as the game goes, we brought it up a little at halftime, but Travon Walker is seemingly not yet paying dividends after the Jags used their top pick on him last year. In a game they won, I was left wondering about Travon and Calvin Ridley.

A second straight primetime game where we saw both running backs look below average from an efficiency standpoint. Obviously, Kamara was a huge piece of the passing game with 12 catches on 14 targets.

My biggest takeaway outside of the crazy bad 3rd down conversion rates (especially for the Saints) was the protection Trevor got in this one and what he did with it.

He was not sacked, had some nice scrambles when they opened up, and didn’t turn the ball over.

Hats off to him, that’s how you win on the road.

Betting:

I had unders in a game with a defensive TD and like 50 points: so not great. Looking forward to Sunday, losing sucks. đź‘Ž

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Last week’s teasers ran hot as hell: I listed six basic strategy teaser legs and they all won. Hopefully, you did some mixing and matching and were able to pad the accounts a bit.

The official teaser of the week for Sunday morning was a couple of teams who won outright (even if they didn’t deserve to, so not much of a sweat there.

Again sitting on half a winner from Monday Night Football with the Chargers keeping it close enough to get this through to Sunday.

Seven (plus a bonus) in the rankings this week. Some nice low totals, some weird QB situations, and even another home divisional underdog.

Week 7 Teaser Rankings (Best to Worst)

Seattle -7.5 vs Arizona (teased to -1.5)

NY Giants +2.5 vs Washington (teased to +8.5)

Buffalo -8 at New England (teased to -2)

Chicago +2.5 vs Las Vegas (teased to +8.5)

Denver +1.5 vs Green Bay (teased to +7.5)

Atlanta +2.5 at Tampa Bay (teased to +8.5)

Miami +2.5 at Philly (teased to +8.5)

Not really a “Wong” but gonna be a tempting bonus leg:

San Francisco -7 at Minny in MNF (down to -1) on the road.

I’ll check back in on Sunday morning! Good luck if you’re betting on college ball tomorrow, or any of the Championship Series baseball.

What’s on the Docket for Sunday?

  • Injury Updates

  • All of my Sunday Bets

  • A free defensive tackle prop from Noonan

  • Full Sunday Score predictions, based partly on the garbage model that spit out an under in TNF

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