Injury Round-Up

• Both starting CBs for the Jets will be out

• Sam LaPorta is still not a guarantee to play but is trending in the right direction.

• NYG: Saquon is probably in and Waller sounds like he’ll play (Bills are still -15)

• Tank Dell out for the Texans

• David Njoku in for the Browns despite still healing from his burns

• Tee Higgins in for the fightin’ burrows

• Malik Cunningham was not just elevated by the Pats but signed to a 3-year deal (I personally think he’s going to lineup as a WR a few times)

• Miami ruled RB Jeff Wilson Jr. out, meaning a heavy dose of Mostert.

• The Bears are going way down the depth charts to find a starting RB

Longer term updates:

Went over every game on Wednesday afternoon, a few disagreements again this week, but a couple of spots where Drew and I aligned for sure.

Time stamps in the video notes if you want to skip to a certain game. The podcast is available for anyone who wants to listen with the sound off on the Ravens game.

Everything I’ve wagered on so far (that’s still a fair price, I’m not gonna sit here and give you Ravens -4):

Bengals -3

Moved a bit off the -2.5 I took earlier in the week but it is still a spot where I show an edge if we move my Bengals pricing to anywhere near where I, or the market, had them at the beginning of the season. The Seahawks are off the bye and starting to get healthy on defense (still no Artie Burns or Coby Bryant though), but I still struggle to get behind them if they can’t generate a pass rush without bringing extra defenders from the second and third levels. This is a team that can actually take advantage. Higgins being back is big, but Chase might have eaten either way.

Eagles 1st Half -3.5 -105

With the starting CBs out, obviously, it’s easy to like all the weapons that the Eagles have at their disposal. Even if it’s not Smith and Brown getting it done, the fact that resources and schemes will have to be used to stop them may just unlock Goedert, Swift, and maybe even some Hurts on the ground. Not a team I’m wild about backing at a big number due to their tendencies in the 2nd half with a lead, I’m willing to look for them to come out of the gates fast and build a lead à la the 2022 version of this squad.

Pats/Raiders u41.5

I’ll bet against this BOB offense until further notice, Zappe or Cunningham stepping in doesn’t change that. The reports are that Mac Jones is on a short leash this week, but that remains to be seen. Injuries in an already underperforming WR room is brutal for this team’s hopes of picking up the scoring.

The Raiders are not a good defense by many metrics, but this isn’t a daunting task for them (plus their HC may be able to help a bit with the prep). Two bottom-ten offenses that I’d love to see punt from their 40-yard lines all day long.

Chargers +117 (MNF)

Struggling to get behind the coaching for Dallas and willing to just go with the Chargers straight up at home off the bye. The Cowboys defense hasn’t been the same after the Diggs injury and so far all the news for the Chargers has been positive. Ekeler sounds like he’s close to 100% and Herbert with no injury designation. I assume no Bosa, so that’d be a cherry on top if he plays.

Teaser: Texans +8 / Commanders +7.5

Back to the well with Stroud and the Texans in a teaser. Tank Dell out isn’t great, but this is still a home game against a team that has struggled a bit on the offensive side of the ball. While I love the Saints’ defense, Stroud has been good against teams that haven’t consistently gotten it done with the pass rush.

I have the Commanders rated about equally with the Falcons and like them a little more in this spot after seeing what happens when you are able to pressure Desmond Ridder a bit. Washington is starting to see a bit of a cluster injury in the secondary, but Atlanta may not be the offense to take advantage of that. I think we see another close one here.

Another week of boxscore watching pays off with a nice look on the defensive side of the ball from Ryan Noonan. EASY WINNER last week with Jalen Pitre (HOU) Over 5.5 Tackles/Assists (he had 13).

Not getting cute.

Not overthinking it.

Nooners is going back to the well.

Jalen Pitre (HOU) Over 6.5 Tackles + assists (-139, CZR)

“I played this at 7.5 + money at open and I assume it met some resistance because he was posted at 5.5 last week. I have him projected for 8.1, so it's a bit juicy but it's a tremendous value.

Pitre gets a slight boost for the scorekeeper and the matchup. We're back to an appropriate line for Pitre after he got us 13 last week on a 5.5 line, but he had a stretch last season (his rookie year) where he nearly topped this week on solos alone. He averaged 11.83/TAs over the final 6 games last season and is an incredibly willing and efficient tackler. I'd probably bet this regardless of the projection.”