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Cowboys at Chargers: MNF Best Bets ⚡
Sunday Recap, MNF Preview, First TD Scorers and how the Weekend Went
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Weirdest week from the standpoint of reconciling the finals with the box score, but sometimes that’s what football is: don’t turn the ball over, be good in the red zone, and find a couple of explosive plays. If you fail at those, all the yards in the world can’t save you.
My quick takeaways from each game yesterday:
Baltimore 24 - Tennessee 16 (London)
Baltimore still hasn’t figured out the red zone play calling after again moving nicely between the twenties, now 2-9 over the past two weeks. I guess at least they didn’t drop passes this week.
Tennessee got some juice out of Derrick Henry, but lost Tannehill to an ankle injury in the 3rd quarter, making the comeback efforts a lot tougher. Sounds like an existing high ankle issue that got worse after a hit from Justin Madubuike. Willis had as many completions as sacks taken.
Washington 24 - Atlanta 16
Howell wasn’t great, but the fields were short thanks to Atlanta miscues and a nice punt return. He was still sacked five times (that’s just going to be a thing) but did enough to get the win and pull this team back to .500. Fewer than 200 total yards.
This one is high on my list of games to rewatch today just to see exactly what was happening with Atlanta’s offense. The playcalling and sequencing limited what they could do against a beatable secondary, but Ridder was part of the problem as well with the picks and errant throws. Having to call a timeout after spiking the ball is embarrassing.
A little frustration on the #Falcons sideline after that interception as Matt Ryan points out.
Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder figuring out what went wrong
— Miles Garrett (@MilesGarrettTV)
7:42 PM • Oct 15, 2023
Minnesota 19 - Chicago 13
The big question here was how the Vikings offense was going to look without Justin Jefferson. The answer was not great. The run game was below average again and a lot of the offense was centered around the TE Hockenson with over half of Cousins’ attempts going to TEs or RBs. Minny’s good turnover (finally) luck was likely the difference.
Justin Fields dislocated his thumb, giving way to rookie Tyson Bagent, who was promptly strip-sacked for a return TD. The defense is getting healthier and probably kept them in the game by limiting MN on 3rd downs (2/13). Ugly game overall, obviously, we need to monitor Fields’ status.
Seattle 13 - Cincinnati 17
Another goofy score. Credit is due to the Cincy defense for stepping up when needed, but Seattle opened things up a bit more, looked good on offense, and then went 1 for 5 in the red zone for just 10 points.
Both pass rushes looked good in this one, and as expected, we got another heavy dose of Ja’marr Chase who saw 13 targets. The Bengals head to a much-needed bye week.
San Francisco 17 - Cleveland 19
I joked about it in the discord, but the blueprint is out on how to beat the 49ers: You simply need an elite defense, off the bye, at home, in bad weather, and to benefit from multiple important injuries.
A little reductive and disrespectful to the job the Browns’ coaching staff did on both sides of the ball. We know that the defense is capable of that, but it was also a good job of putting together the game plan for a backup QB that kept them in this and eventually got them a win.
Deebo Samuel’s injury didn’t sound as serious, hopefully, we get good news on CMC today.
Brock Purdy is struggling in the rain ☔️
— 1 Bay Live (@1QLive)
6:27 PM • Oct 15, 2023
Carolina 21 - Miami 42
Carolina came out hot and never got going again, really not having a decent drive after the 14-0 lead. Really nice scripted portion for the team I suppose? Still a massive mismatch in talent and even without Achane, the Dolphins’ cavalcade of weapons was overpowering.
Indianapolis 20 - Jacksonville 37
Giving up 14 points in like 30 seconds to start the 2nd quarter turned a close game into a bit of a romp and again let the Jags offense off the hook. Despite the 37 points, they only really had three solid drives and only put up 233 total yards of offense. The defense once again stepped up and I continue to be surprised at the defensive numbers for Jacksonville
Minshew having to throw 55 times doesn’t seem sustainable. Three picks quelled any “Mania” that was brewing fairly quickly. A 4-1 turnover margin led to this lopsided score.
New Orleans 13 - Houston 20
Lots of teams unable to finish drives on Sunday, the Saints may be the worst for it? They put up 430 total yards, but were 0-3 in the red zone. Also lost the turnover battle and failed to convert both 4th downs they attempted. Probably deserved a better fate here, but looks like a team that has a nice offense between the 20s that just isn’t translating to scoring when the defense can tighten up and bring guys closer to the LOS.
Not Stroud’s best day, but luck was on his side. Even the pick he threw was fumbled back to Houston on the return. They’ll continue to be a pesky team that can stay in games.
CJ Stroud has finally thrown an interception but the Texans got the ball back on a fumble
— JM Football (@JomboyMediaFB)
5:26 PM • Oct 15, 2023
New England 17 - Las Vegas 21
Gross bad beat of the day for anyone with Pats +3 after a late safety on a Mac Jones sack pushed the game from a two to a four-point margin. Rumors of Malik Cunningham seeing the field were overstated apparently. Pats did put together two nice scoring drives in the 2nd half, but they took over 15 minutes combined and proved to be too little too late in a game where their defense played very tough in the red zone, holding LV to 1-6.
Jimmy Garappolo left with a back injury and Brian Hoyer took over. He’s a capable backup, but still an adjustment down if Jimmy misses time going forward.
Arizona 9 - LA Rams 26
Cards are not as frisky anymore. James Conner probably matters. Just not a good enough offense as currently rostered. 2nd half drives were: punt, pick, fumble, downs, and end of game. Zero points.
The Rams came out a little slow, but getting the running game going against a struggling defense seemed to do the trick for them in the 2nd half. The ineptitude from ARI helps, but Los Angeles put together three 75-yard+ drives in the second half on the backs of Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp. Stafford seemed fine after the injury concerns last week.
#Rams RB Kyren Williams, who rushed for 158 yards and a TD yesterday, suffered an ankle injury and is getting an MRI, per @RapSheet.
The Notre Dame product has been a big part of LA’s offense this year.
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365)
4:22 PM • Oct 16, 2023
Philadelphia 14 - NY Jets 20
The Eagles didn’t score in the 2H, I suppose that’s the headline. Jets limiting what they could do on the ground changed the game plan for the Eagles and that led to turnovers and their first loss of the year.
The Jets are turning out to be a tough out, this is a team that has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball and is sorting out a way to play around having a below-average QB.
Detroit 20 - Tampa Bay 6
Tampa off the bye, another victim of 3rd down shithousery. Going 2-12 isn’t going to get it done, even with the defense playing well enough against a good team. Early down success was poor and definitely contributed, with the average distance to go on 3rd down just a shade under seven yards.
ARSB back and LaPorta in the lineup was big for Detroit, but they did lose another RB with David Montgomery exiting in the 2nd quarter for a rib injury. Goff just continues to quietly be one of the best.
NY Giants 9 - Buffalo 14
Not sure what to say about this one. Between what we saw to end the 1st half and what we saw to end the second half, I really think the Giants deserved better here.
The Bills looked bad early in the game for the second straight week after traveling across the Atlantic but managed to get something going in the 4th quarter. Two long TD drives turned out to be just enough, but this was a lot closer to surviving than thriving and only works when the other team repeatedly gets zero points from the one-yard line. No comment on the final play non-call.
Justin Pugh keeping it real in his first game back 😂 @JustinPugh
📺: #NYGvsBUF on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlusbit.ly/3LWxXPH— NFL (@NFL)
12:29 AM • Oct 16, 2023
Betting
Good week. Despite the horrible bad luck with both Jets CBs being ruled out vs the Eagles, Connor’s Friday prop got home. I sweated all day long, including an early week position on the Ravens that we talked about on the Wednesday podcast, nothing was easy.
Eagles 1st half -3.5 was dicey thanks to Hurts’ turnovers, the Bengals -3 was never comfy, and the Pats under 41.5 got a little squirrely after they found a little offense in the 2nd half, but they all got home. The Texans/Commandos teaser was pretty easy from a scoreboard standpoint, with them leading most of the game, but likely should have been closer in both games.
Noonan’s tackle prop lost a heartbreaker after a strong 1st half for Pitre. I was cheering the Saints on late hoping for OT and more shots at it.
Again, the Bills/Giants game was dumb, weird, and hard to put a finger on, but after some halftime steam to the over, we did grab the 2H under 21.5 (after initially deciding it was a horrible idea to bet into the 2nd half market). Like everything else, it came down to the untimed down and we got a little lucky.
We’ll be back tonight to try and extend the halftime winning streak.
Market
Lookahead was -2.5, reopened as high as -3 in some places, and has taken some Chargers money, especially over the weekend. Guessing books will have teaser liability as well.
The total was as low as 47 and some places on the look-ahead. Opened around 49 and has been slowly and steadily been bet up, finally finding some resistance at 51.
Matchup
Mostly good news for the Chargers offense with Austin Ekeler playing for the first time since week one Unfortunately, WR Joshua Palmer was added to the Sunday injury report with a groin problem. Not great with the already thin WR room in LA, but news this morning makes it sound like he’s expected to suit up and play.
Joey Bosa (toe), DL Nick Williams (back), and TE Donald Parham (wrist) are listed as questionable with DB Deane Leonard (hamstring) and S Alohi Gilman (heel) given the doubtful tag.
For the Cowboys, Leighton Vander Esch and corner C.J. Goodwin (pec) are ruled out and S Juanyeh Thomas (hamstring) is listed as doubtful. OT Chuma Edoga is listed as questionable after missing practice due to an illness.
The Chargers get to come off the bye and host a game against a defense in flux, the issue being if the Chargers offense can actually take advantage. I won’t dig into the Kellen Moore revenge game stuff, but the familiarity there definitely works both ways. Dan Quinn worked with Moore and practiced against his offense for two years, so this is probably a wash.
The Dallas passing offense should have a bit of a chance to bounce back off a rough go of it up in San Fran last week. The Chargers are on the opposite end of the spectrum as one of the nine teams giving up a positive EPA/play on defense when you wash out turnovers. Both teams should be able to move here.
I hate getting the worst of the number but with two of the top ten teams in EPA/dropback against two defenses that can struggle through the air, I’m not sure what’s keeping this total from creeping higher (other than the endemic red zone failure we’ve seen across the league this year)
Betting
From yesterday I did bet the Chargers straight up in this spot and the price has decreased a bit from where I got it. I’d still play them to win on the moneyline down to even (+100), but I do love this as a teaser leg, even with the higher total.
Coupling it with a fade of Arizona. If the Seahawks truly are going to lean into more three WR sets, that’s not a defense that’s going to handle it well.
Week 6/7 Teaser:
Chargers +7.5 / Seahawks -1.5
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First TD Scorers
Darts on the Most Fun Market in Sports
Brimming with confidence after a winning Sunday! Pollard pounding it in from the one should be enough to squash that.
Shopped for the best pricing I could find, Hit me up if you find something better (or have a better angle for this prop):
CeeDee Lamb +1100 (MGM)
Jake Ferguson +1700 (FD)
Josh Palmer +1900 (FD)
Donald Parham +2600 (FD)
What’s on the docket for tomorrow?
Early Week Line Moves
MNF Recap and analysis
Award market updates
QB Injuries news
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