🍻Friday Free Bet: Free Prop Bet for Eagles/Jets

Right off the bat with it to get your Friday started right.

Last week: Desmond Ridder did us dirty by suddenly getting it. This week, my guy at 4for4 has another under he likes quite a bit:

Devonta Smith under 54.5 receiving yards

“Smith is coming off a bad game and I'm not ready to buy a bounce back here. Smith runs nearly 80% of his routes on the outside and leads his team in snaps at RWR. This means he will mostly draw Sauce Gardner (91% LCB) and when he doesn't, Smith will draw DJ Reed (cleared concussion protocol yesterday).

I don't think the Eagles will skew pass-heavy here and when they do pass, it will likely be to attack the middle of the field. Through 5 weeks the Jets have allowed two receivers to exceed 50 yards in Ceedee Lamb and Stefon Diggs...and most of their damage was done over the middle. I would play this down to 50 yards. Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit”

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The Good: Kelce seems fine, eviscerated the coverage. Butker is good.

The Bad: Most everything else

Under bettors were rewarded, but I‘m not so sure the wind was as big a factor as we thought it would be. Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker was a perfect 5/5 kicking last night, including bombs from 52 and 60. Honestly, it was just the teams failing to finish drives, leaving easy 3rd downs on the table. Both teams were below their norms on 3rd down, both failed on a fourth down (in plus territory), the first three turnovers were in plus territory and they combined to go 2/7 in the red zone. All this needed was a fumble through the end zone to complete the under bettor’s wet dream.

Puzzling moments took center stage. I’m not one who loves to question Andy Reid, but we all wondered about the fake they ran with a much smaller center out there to long snap and the reigning MVP on the sidelines as well. Also, probably not a game where you need Kadarius Toney taking multiple direct snaps.

The REAL mind-melter happened right before halftime though. I’m not going to say that the Chiefs only scored their late FG because of this (they had some TOs remaining as well), but the Broncos took their third and final timeout with 22 seconds left after taking a big sack on third down. They essentially handed the man who only needed 13 seconds to rip the collective hearts of Buffalo out an extra timeout to try and get one last shot at some points going into the intermission. Not ideal.

Apparently, the coach that was worth giving up a high draft pick for was JUST NOT SURE WHAT DOWN IT WAS.

Might get worse before it gets better. I guess they have the advantage of a longer week to prep, but it’s never fun having to replace a bunc of your audibles and pre-snap calls because 4k TV showed the world half your play sheet last night.

As for the Chiefs, I guess they won and the defense looked pretty good, but it wasn’t terribly pretty outside of Travis Kelce’s otherworldly ability to find himself open in the middle of the field every other play. Maybe that’s enough to keep this rolling in KC.

We talked it out a bit last night after halftime and couldn’t really name a current AFC playoff team that had the defensive makeup to really stop Kelce in this scheme.

As for the seemingly bad luck of this landing on 11 for Broncos +10.5 backers? This has happened one other time, not too long ago. The Saints were ten-and-a-half point favorites and beat the Minnesota Vikings 20-9 back in 2014 (it was a weird week that ended with Matt Asiata starting at RB for the Vikes).

Perfect Wong Week last week (there were only three in my rankings). But not a ton of doubt for most of the games, the Texans should have probably joined the Jets and Colts as outright winners but chose to kick half a dozen field goals instead.

The official teaser of the week for Sunday morning was mostly easy, even with some surprises at quarterback (Minshew taking over, Ridder looking like he deserves to be a starter).

A wayyyy bigger menu this week, although the 49ers took themself off of it with the news that Deshaun Watson was ruled out. This drove the price all the way to 10 at most places.

Week 6 Teaser Rankings (Best to Worst)

I’ll check back in on Sunday morning with the bets for the week. Sorry that there’s no baseball today, have to find something else to do on a Friday night.