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- šWeek 5 NFL Best Bets: Sides, Totals, Moneylines and Props
šWeek 5 NFL Best Bets: Sides, Totals, Moneylines and Props
Five of my favorite wagers, a defensive player prop and all the stuff that Schefter tweeted while we slept
Andy Molitor
October 08, 2023
Quick Hitters on Injuries:
Despite reports, I find it hard to believe that Jonathan Taylor or Cooper Kupp would just be given full snap counts right from Jump Street, especially considering how their backups have done in relief. I guess weāll see.
Derek Carr says his shoulder feels a lot better this week, but that remains to be seen.
Zay Jones is a go for the Jags in London, Von Miller will also make his season debut today at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Bengals wideout Tee Higgins will miss today with his cracked ribs.
Even with ARSB and Jahmyr Gibbs out, we arenāt expecting a heavy dose of Jameson Williams (coming off gambling suspension), guess itās a LaPorta game.
OBJ, OT Ronnie Stanley and CB Marlon Humphrey are all playing today for Baltimore.
As (probably) expected, Saquon Barkley will not suit up today vs. Miami
The Patriots will have their RB1 with Rhamondre Stevenson expected to play
Week 5 Best Bets
A Five Pack of Games I Like This Week
Everything Iāve wagered on, including one right away this morning in the UK:
Buffalo -5
Iāve gotten super aggressive on my adjustments for the travel situation, and the injuries to the DBs for Buffalo, and even considered giving Jacksonville a tiny bit of home-field advantage in London. I still canāt get close to this price. Obviously, the market disagrees with me, but I still have these two offenses miles apart. The Bills have been hyper-efficient for three straight weeks, while the Jags only put up 9, 17, and 17 after a nice showing in the opener. Even if the injuries to Buffalo prove more costly than Iām accounting for, Iād rather have them in a shootout here.
New Orleans/New England under 39
Played this earlier in the week at 40 and Iām still fine with this at the current price. 24th and 27th in EPA per dropback so far this season with sneaky good defenses. The Patriots have lost some pieces (Judon, Gonzo) to injury but always seem to backfill nicely and will have JC Jackson on the field, just days after trading for him as he already knows the defense from his previous time here.
Baltimore -5
Not going to make it long laying points on the road in division. But I make this -6 and change and with the good news on the injury front for Baltimore, Iām making this a late add to the card.
Pittsburgh has scored FIVE total offensive touchdowns through four games. While I think Baltimoresā defensive numbers are a little inflated due to the opponents, I still have them as a very good unit and just struggle to see this as the spot where the Steelers suddenly start moving the ball with efficiency.
Tennessee/Indianapolis over 43
Iāve gone to bat a couple of times for the Tennessee offense. Despite the horrid offensive line, this team has been able to move the ball when they arenāt playing defensive juggernauts like the Browns. The Colts front seven have struggled with some injuries and I think we see this Titans offense continue to show up in good matchups. Iām not sure weāve seen the best of the Coltsā offense either. At home, indoors against this weak secondary, I like Steichen to dial up more of what we saw in their near-comeback against the Rams.
Teaser: Houston +8.5/Indianapolis +8.5
I mentioned it on Friday, there are not a lot of great opportunities to tease this week. That said, this is one I like quite a bit considering how these young QBs have played so far this year. Obviously, first and foremost it fits the math, but these are two coaches Iām starting to trust in spots where I expect close, back-and-forth games. Houston traveling isnāt super ideal, but their opponent will also be traveling as they returned from last weekās London game.
We went over every game on Wednesday afternoon, including a couple we disagreed on again this week. TIME STAMPS are in the show notes, so you can skip to whichever games you want to hear about. The podcast is available if you want to take it in at 2x speed instead.
The Deep Dive Newsletter is also brought to you by our friends at Prophet Exchange! Check them out if youāre in New Jersey and be sure to follow their Prophet Boosts account. They give you a ton of free money opportunities when their low-margin prices offer an arbitrage spot with another sportsbookās promo boosts. Again, itās free money.
Free Defensive Player Prop
Noonan Likes a Texan to Shine in the ATL
Another early start, but again, our friend Ryan Noonan has answered the call and given us a defensive player prop for the day. So save space for a tab with the box score open and start counting tackles with me in Atlanta.
Jalen Pitre (HOU) Over 5.5 Tackles + assists -120
āAs a rookie last season, Pitre was the best tackling safety in the league. According to PFF, he led all safeties in tackles over expected last season. His final six games were massive, with 16, 12, 13, 9, 13 and 8 TAs.
He got dinged up in Week 1 and came back last week, so we're getting a discount on him here at 5.5. He returned to a box-heavy role vs PIT last week, playing 38% of his snaps in the box, but the game script got out of hand and limited PIT's rushing attempts. That won't be the case vs ATL no matter what the game script is.
I have Pitre projected for 7.1 here, and would play this up to 6.5 at +110.ā
Whatās on the Docket for Tomorrow?
Full Recap of all todayās action
Monday Night Football Betting
MNF First TD Scorers
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