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Rams: My entire Twitter feed was 800 versions of “The Rams are the team NO ONE wants to see in the playoffs”. I agree. The offense is humming along and the weaknesses of the three top teams are secondary and coverage issues. Hell, I think the Buccaneers fall into this category too! The NFC playoffs could get weird as hell right off the bat. Just a great game by Stafford and the luxury of Puka being able to step up like that is so massive for a team that was thought of as an also-ran in the NFC this summer.

Saints: At the risk of sounding like my kids, I just can’t with Derek Carr anymore. The sacks he took on 3rd and 4th down on the first two drives made me seriously question the integrity of the concussion protocol.

He made some good throws as well. Of course, he did! That’s how he’s managed to keep a starting job this long, he has the tools in the bag but somehow makes his backup look like the smart one. The gameplan was tough outside of any time Olave was involved and the coaching decisions were questionable. I would be fine without this team in my playoff viewing experience.

Playoff Implications: I ran some sims after the game and I’m not quite as aggressive as the market for the Saints missing the playoffs, likely because of just how high leverage their games are (Bucs and Saints). Even at 7-8, there’s a path with Minnesota and Seattle as the likely roadblocks. It’s low, but they aren’t dead.

The Rams took a big jump up and probably just need to take care of business versus the Giants next week in New Jersey. I’m a little more bullish than the market currently, making it closer to 75% that they take one of the two open wildcard spots. SF resting players in week 18 would just be gravy, although it’s not like they have a shot to move up past the sixth seed (lost to both Dallas and Philly, so head-to-head tiebreakers would play).

Gambling: I thought I was going to nab a first-TD scorer win on that little 3rd down out to the pylon, but alas the pass was a little off-target for Kupp. Getting the over 46 and our halftime bet on the Saints pk (never in doubt) home on the same TD was nice.

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Last week Connor got off a mini cold streak and got us a winner fading Desmond Ridder against the Panthers. He’s going a different direction this week and betting ON a player in an offense who’s a little rough around the edges:

Jaylen Warren over 68.5 rushing and receiving yards -115

Follow Connor on Twitter for more NFL betting content, and get in the 4for4 Discord if you want to see everything he’s betting each week.

Live Stream!

If you’re stuck at the office this afternoon, you may as well tune in. No one is going to answer that email you’re sending, add some prop bets for the weekend instead.

Live at 3 pm EST, check it out:

Not much last week and I got caught with my hand in the cookie jar with the Cowboys. I ranked them highly, used it in a Sunday play and the teaser leg never had a chance! Funnily enough, the one I was terrified of (KC -8) covered fairly easily.

This Week there are a ton of games JUST out of range and it leaves me with a pretty short list. The Steelers, Titans, Vikings, Commanders Cowboys, & Broncos are all right on the edge of being teaseable.

Buffalo isn’t a Wong teaser, but in a situation where Easton Stick is once again the QB, I’m willing to use it as a nice spot for them to cruise this week.

Anyone vs. Atlanta is a teaser leg since those games always seem to be close late.

Jacksonville and Houston are tough hangs with Keenum and possibly Beathard. I suppose the arguments would be that Tampa is still missing some defensive players and Cleveland’s D has played worse on the road.

Week 16 Teaser Rankings (Best to Worst)

Injury News Dump 🤕

• C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson will sit again for Houston

• Hollywood Brown is OUT for the Cards this weekend

• Trevor Lawrence sounds like he could clear protocol and play

• Zach Wilson has been ruled out, Trevor Siemian will start for the Jets

• Geno Smith is fully practicing and should be back for Seattle

• Zay Flowers was spotted looking like his foot is fine

• Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are practicing in full for Indy

• Keenan Allen, as sort of expected, is out