Happy Sunday, good morning, and welcome to the stretch run.

• Arizona (vs SF) and Washington (@ LAR) are off their bye weeks. This will be the second straight week the Rams are facing a team off their bye.

• New England (vs KC) has had a long week to prep coming off their TNF win over Pittsburgh

• The double MNF game left four teams with a short week to prep: Miami (vs NYJ), Tennessee (vs HOU), Green Bay (vs TB), and NY Giants (@ NO)

• Tampa (@ GB) and Houston (@ TEN) will be on their second straight road games

• Carolina is playing their first home game since November 19th

• New Orleans is in the midst of an extended home stand, having not left town since the 25th of last month. They haven’t played an outdoor game since week seven (and won’t until week 17)

• Despite the 28-6 beatdown, the Saints’ defense is coming off a game that saw them face 79 offensive plays last week.

• MNF: Philly’s schedule is getting easier, but this is their second straight road game (@ SEA)

Weather 🌦️

Chicago @ Cleveland: Should be raining with 15 mph winds and 25+ gusts, but looks like it’ll start to improve as the game goes on.

Atlanta @ Carolina: Heavy rains throughout the rains with strong winds and gusts into the 30s

NY Jets @ Miami: Heavy winds, 35+ mph plus gusts with 20 mph sustained. Again…. this stadium does a good job protecting from winds, but it still could affect things

Dallas @ Buffalo: It probably rains, but it could be on and off. The winds shouldn’t be impactful outside of some gusting.

SNF: Baltimore @ Jacksonville: This one is tonight, so things can change, but some places are calling for 40-50 mph gusts here with strong sustained winds.

MNF: Philadelphia @ Seattle: 80% chance of rain as of now.

Injuries🩼🤕

• Cleveland - CB Denzel Ward is questionable, S Juan Thornhill is OUT

• Chicago - WR D.J. Moore will play.

• Tampa Bay - WR Chris Godwin is expected to play. CB Carlton Davis, DL Will Gholston, DT Vita Vea, and S Ryan Neal are all out or doubtful.

• Green Bay - Christian Watson is doubtful, but Aaron Jones is expected to be back in this one. It looks like a broken thumb will keep A.J. Dillon OUT

• Houston - C.J. Stroud has NOT cleared the concussion protocol and will miss week 15. CASE KEENUM IS THE STARTER! Rookie DT Will Anderson is also out, Nico Collins is not expected to play, Noah Brown is.

• Miami - Letting Tyreek Hill decide if he’s good to go or not.

• NY Giants - Darren Waller is activated and playing!

• New Orleans - WR Chris Olave is questionable, and they did elevate a WR from the practice squad, so it seems like he has a decent chance to miss. OT Ryan Ramczyk is not expected to play

• Kansas City - Pacheco had shoulder surgery and will miss some time.

• New England - RB Rhamondre Stevenson is out again but WR Demario Douglas has cleared the concussion protocol and is available this weekend. Devante Parker is expected to play, Juju Smith-Schuster is NOT.

• Washington - RB Brian Robinson (hamstring) is OUT

• Los Angeles Rams - Tutu Atwell is expected to be OUT due to a concussion

• Arizona - WRs Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson are both expected to play

• San Francisco - The 49ers are beat up: DT Arik Armstead, DT Javon Hargrave, and RB Elijah Mitchell have been ruled out. LB Dre Greenlaw, CB Charvarius Ward, and both starting guards, Spencer Burford & Aaron Banks are questionable.

• Dallas - Brandin Cooks (illness) is expected to play today vs Buffalo

• Baltimore - S Kyle Hamilton is likely back after practicing this week.

• Jacksonville - The Jaguars secondary is again in shambles with CB Tyson Campbell and S Andre Cisco already ruled out and CB Tre Herndon questionable.

MNF

• Eagles CB Darius Slay had surgery and will miss a few weeks

• Geno Smith is practicing, but will still be listed at questionable. It sounds like Devon Witherspoon is likely to miss this one.

Week 15 Bets🏈

Take with several grains of salt, Thursday went well but I couldn’t find a winner with a map and a shovel yesterday.

Green Bay/Tampa Bay over 42

Just a bit of a play on the beat-up nature of both of these defenses and what the high end of their respective QBs can look like. Despite being in Green Bay in December, the weather doesn’t look too terrible. A little bump in the road for Jordan Love last week, but I still trust him to right the ship and have both of these teams projected to score into the 20s

Baltimore/Jacksonville over 40.5

This is dropping, presumably on the terrible weather forecast, so I’m coming in on the other side here.

Not just some QBs I like, but two defenses who were on the field an awful lot last week. I know the weather looks like hot garbage here, but both teams faced over 70 offensive plays last week and have some injury question marks on the defensive side of the ball.

Chicago/Cleveland under 37.5

The weather and injury luck haven’t always been with me on this one, but I still like both defenses to take away what’s been working for these teams of late. Turnovers were a big part of last week’s win over the Lions, but the defense did step up time after time when playing with a lead. On the other side, Myles Garrett seems no worse for wear after an injury scare a couple of weeks back.

6-point Teaser: Dallas +8 / San Francisco -6

Not that I had much success yesterday, but I was happy to avoid the Steelers teaser leg I guess. Not a ton on the menu this week, but I’ll grab a couple of elite offenses, one of them getting points against a team that everyone is awfully keen to start believing in despite what we’ve seen up in Buffalo for most of the year. As for the 49ers: maybe they don’t cover the big closing number again this week, but I have a hard time seeing this one staying terribly close throughout.

Back to the Well: Zeke Props

Currently off the board with the uncertainty of half the WRs on the roster, I guess? I’ll likely split some money up across the various rushing and receiving props but my favorite will again be just his Receptions Over. Hoping for a reasonable price on o3.5?

Noonan helping out on a Sunday like the good guy he is:

Rayshawn Jenkins (JAX) Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists -110