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šŗFriday Free Bet: Prop Bet for Falcons/Panthers
A TNF retrospective, Connor's free prop of the week, a look at teaser legs, and a quick peek at the weekend weather
That escalated quickly.
Not the game we expected, and a tough one to evaluate much from, but it certainly had to be a nice change of pace for the season ticket holders who sat through last weekās 3-0 affair.
Like I said, I donāt have a ton of takeaways. Aidan OāConnell seemed to play well, but the low effort we started to see from the Chargersā defense coupled with the five turnovers will tilt things for sure. Yeah, they had the two defensive scores and some really short fields, but he seemed to manage the offense decently enough on the first scoring drive: a 12-play, 68-yard drive that put them up 7-0.
He was put in a terrible game state with the turnovers and how his defense was looking, but I think itās safe to say that Easton Stick isnāt starter material. I have an even lower opinion of Max Duggan, but Iāve been wrong before and I donāt hate the idea of getting him some playing time to at least see if the rookie is worth keeping on the roster longer-term.
In a game that saw 12 touchdowns, the coolest one, without a doubt was the pick-six.
This Pick-6! Even Mark Davis couldnāt believe it.
#LACvsLV on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlusatnfl.co/LACvsLVā NFL (@NFL)
3:55 AM ā¢ Dec 15, 2023
The Chargers are not eliminated, but of the teams who still have life in the AFC, they have the worst record. The season is over (a week ago). I donāt know that Staley is fired today, but I feel like we can say he wonāt be back next year at a minimum. Itāll be interesting to see how this affects OC Kellen Moore, who could be moving for the second straight offseason.
The Raiders improved to 6-8 and still have a mathematically feasible path to the playoffs, but with a road game against KC next week, it feels more like a moral victory than anything.
READ:
Itās Friday and Connor promised to try harder this week. I know itās not a Saturday play (I should have specified to him), but itās very on brand: a gross under in a game you werenāt going to watch otherwise.
Desmond Ridder under 185.5 passing yards -114
Since their Week 7 bye, the Panthers pass defense has been playing well. They are allowing just 162 passing yards per game and only one QB has cleared 190 passing yards in 7 weeks. That includes games against CJ Stroud (140 passing yards) and Dak Prescott (189 passing yards)! It's not just because they are getting their teeth kicked in and opposing teams don't need to throw anymore, their pass defense is 12th in success rate, 3rd in explosive pass rate, and 12th in EPA per dropback. Now we factor in that the Falcons love to run the ball and are coming off a game where they opened up a bit and got burned against the Bucs. I expect an extremely run-centric gameplan here against Carolina. The last time they played in Week 1, it was tied 10-10 entering the 4th quarter and Ridder finished with just 115 passing yards on 21 pass attempts. With the Panthers remaining extremely run-heavy on their own end and incapable of sustaining consistent offense, this figures to be neutral or positive game script for Atlanta for the entire game. Even if the Falcons do fall behind, I expect them to lean on the run to maintain offense as we have seen in years past.
LIVE SHOW AT 3 PM EST:
Check it out if you wanna grab a few more free props to fill up the pending bets in the accounts this weekend.
WeatheršŖ
If you havenāt learned yet, this stuff changes on a dime and all you can do is monitor it and try not to overreact. There are a few games worth keeping an eye on though. Iāll include some updates on gameday for sure.
Saturday looks fine: Cincinnati appears to be staying dry and the other two are in domes.
Chicago @ Cleveland: Decent chance of rain and winds bordering on significant.
Atlanta @ Carolina: It looks like itāll almost certainly be raining and have 15+ mph winds
NY Jets @ Miami: Heavy winds, 35+ mph plus gusts with 20 mph sustained. This stadium does a good job protecting from winds, but these are still high enough speeds to watch.
Dallas @ Buffalo: More than likely will see rain during this game and winds 15+
SNF: Baltimore @ Jacksonville: Like Charlotte, it looks like rain and some 15 mph winds
MNF: Philadelphia @ Seattle: probably going to rain
Another week of the listed and ranked teaser legs running hot and me still somehow picking the only loser to include in the official Sunday teaser. Guess I should have just doubled down on the Buccos. Good job by the Ravens to eek it out and the San Francisco alternative/secondary teaser zone plays will continue until someone can stay within a TD of this team.
From last week:
Light card again with a TON of games sitting on 3 and possibly sliding into a nice teaser spot by Sunday. For now, I still love the teams with good offenses, hell one of them is getting points this week. I put a gap in there just to show my disgust for even thinking about a game with Mitch Trubisky on the road as a leg and of course, as I mentioned on the podcast this week, the KC leg terrifies me.
Dallas +2 at Buffalo (teased to +8)
San Francisco -12 at Arizona (teased to -6.5)
-GAP-
Steelers +1.5 at Indianapolis (teased to +7.5)
Kansas City -8 at New England (teased to -2)
Before you go
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Contest locks on Saturday, December 16th at 10 AM.
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Iāll check back in on Sunday morning with the bets for the week
Due to scheduling multiple damn games on a Saturday (my day off), there will be a BONUS newsletter tomorrow. Iām huddling with the smart kids I know now to find some good props for the triple-header. Iāll try to keep it brief because no one wants to read on a Saturday, but Iāll have some thoughts on all three games and do a full-ass injury run-down for the Sunday slate ahead of time.