This is when it starts to feel like we’re really gearing up for the playoffs. The schedule starts to get funny (Saturday games incoming), divisions begin to get locked up, and we go through infinite amounts of clinching scenarios that always involve multiple games ending in ties.

Injuries 🤕

• KC - Kicker Harrison Butker is back. OT DJ Humphries has been ruled out; Wanya Morris will likely return to the starting OL spot.

• CLE - TE David Njoku is going to be a game-time decision. WR Cedric Tillman remains out.

• CIN - OT Orlando Brown and DT Sheldon Rankins remain out

• TEN - RB Tony Pollard is expected to play. CB Roger McCreary is listed as questionable.

• WAS - DT Deron Payne is questionable after missing practice late in the week. There is some doubt as to which kicker they’ll be using.

• NO - Jake Haener is your starting QB this week. Bub Means is not returning this week.

• BAL - DT Michael Pierce looks likely to go after being activated off the IR.

• NYG - G Jon Runyan is headed to the IR. Tim Boyle will be the backup QB behind DeVito, with Drew Lock injured. CB Cordale Flott is doubtful.

• DAL - CB Trevon Diggs joins a list of Cowboys defenders on the IR after losing DeMarvion Overshown last week as well. Center Cooper Beebe is out again, likely to be replaced by Brock Hoffman.

• CAR - CB Jaycee Horn is expected to play

• NYJ - Breece Hall is looking likely to go this week, but the Jets will be without CB DJ Reed

• JAX - TE Evan Engram is done for the year.

• MIA - OT Terron Armstead is listed as doubtful

• HOU - Again, thin at guard with Juice Scruggs still out and Kenyon Green not ready to return.

• IND - WR Josh Downs is expected to play, but Ashton Dulin is not.

• DEN - CB Riley Moss is again ruled out. Some combination of Levi Wallace and rookie Kris Abrams-Draine will fill in for him.

• BUF - WR Keon Coleman will make his return, and TE Dalton Kincaid may as well. DE Dwuane Smoot has been activated off the IR. CB Rasul Douglas is out

• DET - LT Taylor Decker and DT DJ Reader are both off the injury report

• PIT - George Pickens will again be out with his hamstring injury. DT Montravius Adams has been activated from the IR and will play

• PHI - WR Britain Covey is ruled out, otherwise the Eagles are healthy

• NE - OT Caeden Wallace is out

• ARI - Trey McBride is good to go. The Cards will be trotting out a new punter. Black Gilikin heads to IR, and Michael Palardy replaces him.

• TB - Bucky Irving is questionable, as are a handful of defenders. Antoine Winfield is out for a few weeks.

• LAC - Will Dissly is still out. Denzel Perryman and Ladd McConkey are listed as questionable. McConkey will test things out before the game, but the feeling is optimistic. QB Justin Herbert has been removed from the injury report.

• GB - Romeo Doubs is cleared to play. CB Jaire Alexander and S Javon Bullard are out for the GB secondary

• SEA - Kenneth Walker III is again doubtful. CBs Tre Brown and Artie Burns are out.

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Weather ⛈

• Chiefs at Browns is starting to look pretty nasty. 20 mph winds with gusts over 30 mph and a very high likelihood of rain.

• Bengals at Titans has a small possibility of rain with the winds sitting right on the borderline of being impactful, in the 10-15 mph range.

• Cowboys at Panthers has a 40% chance of rain.

• Packers at Seahawks have a possibility of rain, somewhere in the 40-50% range

• Colts at Broncos is looking pretty windy, with sustained 15 mph+

• Steelers at Eagles has a small chance of rain.

Situational 📆

• CIN@TEN: the Bengals are coming off a short week, having played Dallas on MNF. This is also the 2nd straight week on the road for them.

• WAS@NO: Commanders are off their bye (and are getting the backup QB from the Saints)

• BAL@NYG: Baltimore is off the bye, and the Giants are quiet quitting

• DAL@CAR: Dallas has a short week after Monday’s loss to Cincy

• NYJ@JAX: 2nd straight week on the road for the Jets

• MIA@HOU: Texans are off the bye

• IND@DEN: BOTH teams are off the bye week, for whatever that’s worth. Indy is playing away games on both sides of their bye week; Denver is the opposite

• BUF@DET: The Lions are coming off extra rest, having played TNF

• TB@LAC: This is the 3rd road game in the past four weeks for the Bucs, who will also be on the road again next week in Dallas

• NE@ARI: The Pats are off the bye week to make this cross-country trip.

• GB@SEA: Green Bay has extra rest coming off a Thursday game but is playing their 2nd straight week on the road

Monday

• CHI@MIN: THIRD straight road game for the Bears

Sunday Bets

It was a tough week, 14, but I have a short memory. The last time I checked, I started a winning streak with the Rams +3 on Thursday. Back in the fold, so we’ll have a halftime show and a 2nd half bet for tonight’s Holmgren Bowl.

Colts +4

I dunno if Anthony Richardson is going to get any better than he has, but the bye week has maybe made us forget what this Denver secondary looked like when they were last on the field. With the WR corps mostly intact for the Colts, I would expect them to build on the success we’ve seen since the “un-benching” of Richardson.

Cardinals -6

Pats are off the bye. That’s the only real positive I have for them and my ratings have this prices on the other side of a touchdown. It wasn’t very pretty last week, but with the upgrades we should be giving the Seattle defense, this is a massive difference in strength of opponent for the Cards’ offense today. The Pats rate as a bottom-three pass rush AND coverage unit in my numbers.

Chargers -3 +100

The Bucs are still pretty beat up defensively and now will be without their best defender in Antoine Winfield Jr. I’m not assuming that Ladd McConkey is playing, but it’s trending that way and would be massive for this offense that had started to hit it’s stride a bit. This isn’t one that I make a big value in my numbers, but all the in-game matchups seem to tilt toward the home team here.

Cowboys/Panthers over 42.5

The Boys allowed 433 yards of offense on Monday and likely should have gotten beaten worse than they did. Throw in a couple of extra meaningful injuries and a feisty Panthers team this week, and we may continue to see them struggle to slow down ANY offense. It’s not the team they envisioned at the beginning of the season, but Cooper Rush, Rico Dowdle, and all the tight ends aren’t a terrible supporting cast for CeeDee Lamb.

Tua Tagovailoa under 264.5 Passing Yards

Tua’s been great, but for the most part, it hasn’t been against very good secondaries, or defenses as a whole for that matter. This game's total drop down to 45.5 shows the market respect for the Houston defense, I suppose. My only regret is that this isn’t a Saturday night newsletter; this was 271.5 yesterday (I still like it)

Teaser: Washington -1.5/Seattle +8.5

I love the Commanders in a nice spot to exert their will on offense, and it’s a perfect time for them to get their new cornerback on the field finally. Lattimore revenge game maybe loses a little juice since it’s Jake Haener under center, but it’s still nice to see a bad secondary get a boost for the stretch run.

Seattle draws a tough Packers team, but this defense is starting to look like Mike MacDonald can repeat his success. With the Packers still missing some key defenders in the secondary and the birth of a new Slot King in JSN, I would expect them to build on their offensive success from last week’s 30 point outburst.

Want some quick thoughts on any of the other games?

We touched on all 16, even though my wife was mad at me for podcasting from the balcony of our cruise ship.

My Power Ratings Update for the Week

Week 16 Lookahead Lines

The Deep Dive Week 15 Preview Show

Deep Dive Week 15 Preview Podcast (Apple | Spotify)

4for4 Free Player Props Livestream

Follow me on Twitter

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