bet365 is the official odds provider for the Deep Dive Newsletter

Go Rams. It's not exactly the game I pictured, but it was still a good job by McVay for the most part, despite the mid-off that Purdy and Stafford. That’s probably all she wrote for the 2024 49ers; their playoff probability drops to damn near zero.

ICYMI

My Week 15 Power Ratings Update

Deep Dive Week 15 Betting Preview

Also in podcast form ( apple | spotify )

4for4 Player Prop Livestream

Yell at me on Twitter

Lookaheads

Pretty decent set of looks from Last Week, I just had the two that I fired on, but also didn’t do terrible in the spots I avoided.

• Tampa +3 is still sitting firmly there. I likely will buy out and perhaps even come back over the top with more on the Chargers here with the Antoine Winfield injury and the hopeful return of Ladd McConkey.

• Cincy -3.5 is out to -5 and looking like a good bet with the health of the Bengals in decent shape and the Titans being anything but, possibly even at QB.

Bets for week 16:

• Baltimore -4.5 (vs PIT) in a rematch of an earlier loss. This time after a cupcake game off their bye while the Steelers have Philly to deal with.

• Indy -4.5 (vs. TEN) doesn’t feel as good, but it’s a bit of an extension of this week’s bets as I expect the Denver secondary to struggle against the Colts and just have zero faith that we see improvements from the Titans as the season winds down. I currently make this (and Baltimore) -6.5

• ARI/CAR over 45.5: Both with very soft targets this week to help bolster their offenses’ standings in the market. I make this 47 and change, but I also have had very little luck on totals involving NFC West teams.

My pricing for KC is high every week compared to the market, but I likely would again abstain from betting them early. If the secondary is truly regressing like the eye test seems to indicate, then the Browns’ current offense will take advantage. This matchup just gets worse with Nico Collins on deck.

Keeping an eye on👀

weather

• KC@CLE is looking like rain and winds over 15 mph, possibly up to 25-30 mph gusts

• CIN@TEN has a high likelihood of rain during the game. Winds 10-15

• NYJ@JAX will be a windy one; good possibility that we see sustained winds over 15 mph

• DAL@CAR has a 50/50 shot at rain right now

• Lower chances of rain in a few other spots (GB@SEA, PIT@PHI, & BAL@NYG), but it’s only Friday, and those might be worth keeping an eye on.

injuries

• Is Justin Herbert 100%???

• George Pickens is likely out, but I need to hear them say it

• Kenneth Walker not practicing may be Chardonnay time again

• Breece Hall’s knee is still a problem

• As always, the Bills receivers Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid

• Keeping watch on Tony Pollard after he missed Wed/Thurs practice

• Giants wideout Malik Nabers is still limited at practices

• Cowboys have a few to watch: CeeDee Lamb, Trevon Diggs, and center Cooper Beebe

• Miami OT Terron Armstead

• Denver DBs: Riley Moss (almost certainly out) and Brandon James

• Lions DT DJ Reader

• Browns TE David Njoku

• Cards TE Trey McBride has been limited in practices

• RB Bucky Irving and WR Mike Evans for Tampa

Outside of the NFC West looks, it’s a bit of a light week again.

The Commanders, off their bye, against Jake Haener, is solid tease down to -1.5, and despite it all, I really don’t know that I can see Dallas getting blown out by the Panthers.

The scary one is, of course, the game with the total in the mid-50s. Buffalo may win, Detroit may win, and either team may do so by 10+ points if this gets to be a track meet. I’m using the Bills sparingly, if at all.

Week 15 Teaser Rankings (Best to Worst)

See ya Sunday morning! Have a GREAT WEEKEND!