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You probably shouldn’t be making big changes to your power ratings this late in the year outside of big, impactful injuries.

I think the part of the process I enjoy the most is running my raw numbers through and comparing them to the market. Instant feedback on where you disagree (where you’re either very smart or very dumb, usually more of one than the other.)

At that point, though, it’s not always clear exactly what you disagree about. It’s still a comparative number between two teams so, you may be way too high on one, way too low on the other, or sitting someone at one of a million points in between.

Some Changes I did make:

• The Saints needed to drop heavily for the Derek Carr injury. Both Haener and Rattler are at least a 5-point downgrade in my numbers.

• The same goes for the Raiders, to a lesser extent. It’s not that Ridder is better than the Saints’ backup options; he’s not. It’s just not quite the fall from O’Connell to where we’ll be at this weekend.

• The 49ers number is very much in flux with key players still not practicing on a short week. Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, and Isaac Guerendo all seem like they will miss TNF, but they obviously need monitoring.

• An interesting one for the week is the Bucs-Bolts, with Antoine Winfield now ruled out for a couple of games and Ladd McConkey possibly coming back for the Chargers. Not names that change my raw ratings a ton, but certainly a massive change in the matchup.

• My Houston number is too high, but I don’t have the time to fix it right now. I feel like that offensive line is much worse than maybe it’s getting credit for. Something to figure out this afternoon.

My Biggest Disagreements

1. Oh Good! The Chiefs again! Once again, the market says KC -4, and I say KC -6 vs the Browns. Maybe one to stay away from considering the matchups (Garrett vs the horrible KC tackles and YOLO Winston vs a rough KC secondary).

2. I must talk to someone about my Arizona and New England numbers. This one is now down to -5.5, and I’m VERY MUCH on the other side of a TD for this matchup, even with the Pats off the bye.

3. My numbers are starting to respect the Seahawks a bit more on both sides of the ball. I’m well off the -3 we’re seeing and am pretty interested in taking Seattle straight up as an underdog in this one. Green Bay has extra time off the Thursday game, but even with an adjustment, I don’t see them taking advantage of the poor Seattle O-Line.

🚨Podcast Tonight🚨

Gonna run back another afternoon one as I try to sneak away from the beach and call Drew for about an hour without my wife knowing. If I’m successful, it’ll be out in podcast form tomorrow morning.