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The Miami Dolphins 📈

Quarterback play trumps everything, and Tua has been about as good as we’ve seen for a while. Hell, two months ago, I was very earnestly thinking that he should think about retiring. The level of competition hasn’t been the greatest over the past couple of weeks, but even in a loss to Buffalo, he looked very solid. I think McDaniel deserves some credit as well, the offense looks a bit different and is spreading the ball out nicely; they’ve gotten a ton out of Jonnu Smith.

Additionally, the defense is showing some signs of life, including rookie Chop Robinson, who took advantage of a bad offensive line last week to add a sack to his tally.

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Other upgrades: DET, SEA, GB,

• The Detroit secondary still could be a little healthier, but this defense isn’t as bad as I had feared after the loss of Anzalone and Hutchinson. The offense has a million ways to kill you, and unless they suffer some injuries, that isn’t changing.

• Seattle feels so close to being a very good team. The defense is finally starting to come around for Mike MacDonald. If Geno can clean up the turnovers, this team will host a playoff game.

• Green Bay got a gift last week with the injuries to the 49ers, but it doesn’t change the fact that they looked excellent in all facets of the game early on, quickly turning the game into early garbage time. Xavier McKinney continues to pay dividends; one of the better offseason signings.

San Francisco 📉

Quarterback play trumps everything, and Brandon Allen is a far cry from Brock Purdy. Maybe this answers some of the questions about how much Purdy relied on the system around him (Brock is good). Throw in injuries to your stalwart left tackle, your star pass rusher, your chain-moving tight end, and a cavalcade of supporting pieces and you’re left with a team looking unlikely to find a playoff spot, much less compete with the best in the NFC.

A note on my current price: My quarterback number is somewhere between where it would be for a limited Purdy and where I adjust to with Allen. I think Purdy starting could take this down to Bills -4.5/5, and if he’s confirmed out, we could stretch all the way out to -8.5. Other injuries play into this as well, of course, even on the other side of the ball where several receivers and even LB Matt Milano could be back!

Other downgrades: WAS, NYG, LAR

• There are lots of theories about Kliff Kingsbury, but I called up Occam, and he confirmed that explosive, mobile QBs are indeed much worse when they are playing through an injury. Daniels is still outstanding, but there’s been a clear downtick in production. Washington’s offense will go as he goes.

• It looks like the Giants downgrade I made last week wasn’t big enough. DeVito will continue to kill drives by taking big sacks, Nabers is way ahead of pace in becoming a disgruntled WR on a bad team, and the defense is now down another player in Ojulari.

• The Rams’ defense seems solvable if you can scheme around the pass rush. The secondary is quite beatable, and the tackling can be an issue (google “Saquon Barkley highlights”)

Week 13 Biggest Disagreements

As I’ve explained, these are my “RAW numbers” and don’t include matchups and scheme adjustments.

It doesn’t mean I’ve bet these yet (although in a few cases, I absolutely have via last week’s lookahead prices), but they are on my radar for the week. Wednesday practice reports, deep diving in the inter-game matchups, and asking the Discord to talk me out of them all have to happen before I get too wild with it.

I’m sure I’ll have a couple locked in by the time we do a lunchtime podcast today.

1. Falcons +2.5 (my price +0.5) - Brutal travel spot going cross country after an MNF loss to play a team off the bye. The Falcons injury reports today will be very impactful, as last we saw them, they were down a half dozen defenders. If they are trending healthier at all, I don’t see why this should move closer to a pick.

2. Colts -2.5 (my price -3.5) - Not the greatest day last week against the Lions, but even on the road, I’m not sure you could get a bigger difference in class now getting to face defense in shambles and an offensive line that’s markedly worse than Detroit. I have this on the other side of 3.

3. Pittsburgh +3 (my price +1) - tough loss, but extra rest heading to play and incredible beatable defense. If they can scheme ways to stop the Cincy passing attack, even for portions of the game, I would think they just win. I don’t always love what Arthur Smith does, but he should have a massive advantage in this one

4. Cleveland +5.5 (my price +4) - I don’t know if Jameis will get a 2nd straight upset win; I think this number is a smidge big, even after coming down a bit off the opener. Cleveland's defense looked a bit rejuvenated last week, and my numbers don’t support a price this big in what should be a low-scoring game.

5. Washington -5.5 (my price -7). I know I just said that I downgraded them, and Jayden Daniels is hurt. Still, that’s about as good as you’ll likely ever see this Tennessee team play last week, and it’s probably downhill from here. Bit of a buy low/sell high spot as the Titans hit the road for the 2nd straight week.

Am I stupid? Are my numbers bad? Should I “watch the damn film”?

I like to think of myself as someone who’ll listen to any and all sides of an argument, so by all means, yell at me on Twitter or Bluesky if you disagree (I will also accept praise and adulation if you agree).

🚨ADJUSTED HOLIDAY SCHEDULE🚨

LIVE STREAM - 1 PM ET

Due to travel and wanting to spend some time with family we’ll be recording a full six hours early today. This is also nice for anyone looking to get a head start on Thursday’s three-pack of games. Normally released overnight, I’ll be putting the podcast version up immediately following the live stream, sometime around 3 PM ET.