Week 13 NFL Bets

Four Bets for Sunday, plus weather, injuries, news, & more

Andy Molitor
December 01, 2024

News 📰

Details are out on how the Giants were trying to handle the Daniel Jones situation before his release.
The RB-naissance is starting to spread; 29-year-old James Conner is getting a new deal in Arizona
Jameis is hoping to stay in Cleveland beyond 2024

The NFL fined #Browns S Grant Delpit $11,255 for unsportsmanlike conduct (taunting) — snatching #Steelers WR George Pickens’ mouthpiece last Thursday night.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero)
9:01 PM • Nov 30, 2024

Injuries 🤕

Jags QB Trevor Lawrence is planning on playing
49er QB Brock Purdy got in enough practice and is looking healthy enough to play. He’ll start in Buffalo. DE Nick Bosa and OL Trent Williams & Aaron Banks will be out.
Eagles WR Devonta Smith is still going to be evaluated before making a final decision, but it seems less than likely for him to play this week.
WR Alec Pierce is expected to play for the Colts, WR Josh Downs is out.
LB CJ Mosely will be a game-time decision for the Jets, RB Breece Hall is “trending in the right direction”. LT Tyron Smith heads to the IR.
LB Roquan Smith seems likely to go today for the Ravens
Commanders RB Austin Ekeler is now on the IR and will miss at least four games.
The Bucs continue to have injuries on the defensive side of the ball; OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka is out today.
The Chargers placed RB JK Dobbins on the IR with an MCL sprain.
LB Matt Milano will make his return to the field today for the Bills. TE Dalton Kincaid is out, and Keon Coleman is a game-time decision.

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Weather ⛈

Buffalo: while the news has focused on the snow, there’s actually a chance it’s done for the weekend, and it should be cleaned up before game time tonight. There is still a fair chance that we will see flurries during the game, but the heavy stuff appears to be done for now. Winds 10-15 mph with low temps as well.

Let it snow!
#GoBills | #BillsMafia
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills)
8:10 PM • Nov 30, 2024

No real other “weather impact” games despite some action in cold weather cities. It’ll be very cold in Cincinnati and New England, but without enough wind to affect the game. The Jets game may feature some winds that get into the 15-20 mph range, the Meadowlands can be unpredictable.

Situational 📆

LAC@ATL - The Chargers are heading cross country to play a Falcons team off their bye; additionally, LA is on a short week after Monday Night Football
PIT@CIN - Both teams are on extra rest with Pittsburgh coming off TNF and Cincy off the bye week. This is the second straight divisional road game for the Steelers.
ARI@MIN - The Cardinals are on the second straight week of travel
SEA@NYJ - The Jets are coming off their bye week
TEN@WAS - The Titans are on their second straight week on the road
HOU@JAX - the Jags are coming off the bye week.
LAR@NO - Saints are coming off their bye
PHI@BAL - Baltimore is on a shorter week after playing on MNF, Philly is on a back-to-back
SF@BUF - Second straight week of travel for the 49ers with a cross-country trip on a holiday weekend and the Bills off the bye week
CLE@DEN - Cleveland has extra rest, having not played since last TNF

Sunday Bets

Not as many strong looks as I had hoped this week, mostly just doubling down on the stuff I liked right off the bat.

Atlanta Moneyline +100

Situationally, it's not a great spot for the Chargers, and we’ve seen a couple of spots where the LA defense has looked very beatable (2nd half of the Cincy game, all of the Baltimore game). After scoring just 23 combined points over the past two games (both losses), I see a nice spot to get the running and short-passing game going against a Chargers defense that lacks a little bite in the pass rush and was just run on for 200+ yards. On the other side, the loss of JK Dobbins is non-trivial, Herbert will have to shoulder most of the load this week.

Minnesota/Arizona over 45

Maybe being held down a bit based on the week, we saw from the Arizona offense and the reputation of the Flores-led defense. With some cracks showing and the injury of Ivan Pace Jr., I’ll take what I have rated as two top-ten offenses to clear a below-average total indoors here. Minnesota has also struggled a bit with mobile QBs, I think it’s a great day for Kyler to get it going again.

Indy -2.5 -114

A massive step down in class from last week’s loss vs the juggernaut, the Detroit Lions; this is a New England defense that’s given up gobs of yards, and the Colts should find themselves in much more conducive game states, even on the road here. New England’s defense is 28th in pressure rate and this coverage unit is 30th in EPA/dropback. Richardson has every opportunity to shine here.

Tampa/Carolina over 46.5

Carolina is suddenly a bit of an over team and has some serious signs of life in their offense since the return of Bryce Young off his “timeout.” The Bucs' defense continues to never be at 100%, and Carolina’s reinforcements have mainly been offensive. Going up against Tommy DeVito isn’t a fair way to judge how beatable the Bucs have been. Some are calling for a bit of a letdown spot for Carolina after nearly beating the champs, but I’d think they’re just playing with house money, and first-year head coach Dave Canales will be looking to build off of three straight games where they didn’t embarrass themselves.

Almost: Saints ML

Including this just to point out what kept me off a bet. I don’t think the Rams are good enough currently to be laying this many points on the road facing a team coming off their bye, BUT the matchup between the young pass rush for the Rams and the decimated offensive line for the Saints is enough to keep me away. Watching Derek Carr make horrible decisions under constant duress isn’t my idea of fun. My numbers say this is a bet, but the matchups are keeping me on the sideline.