News (NY QB Edition) 📰

• Both Rap and Shefty wrote stories about Daniel Jones and where he’s like to end up playing out the 2024 season. The Vikings and Ravens are apparent front runners

• Sources are also saying that Aaron Rodgers’ status for 2025 is extremely unclear. Dianna Russini says he may be benched or possibly put on IR this season.

• We’ve had our first Thursday Night Football FLEX! Week 16 schedule adjusted by the league.

• Biggest Fine of the Week: Jameson Williams hit for $19,697 for an obscene gesture

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Injuries 🤕

• Brandon Allen will start at QB for the 49ers today with Brock Purdy sidelined. The team is optimistic that LT Trent Williams can go, but he’ll still be evaluated pre-game. Star pass rusher Nick Bosa has also been ruled out.

• Good news for the Bears: Keenan Allen and D’Andre Swift are expected to play.

• Eagles WR Devonta Smith will not play due to a hamstring injury

• Giants WR Malik Nabers expects to play despite missing some practice

• Giants DL Kayvon Thibodeaux has been activated, further strengthening the Giants’ pass rush, which is even more critical since…..

• Tampa OT Tristan Wirfs is doubtful. The good news for the Bucs is that WR Mike Evans will make his return today.

• Cowboys: did NOT activate WR Brandin Cooks. TE Jake Ferguson remains out. CeeDee Lamb is playing despite missing some practice.

• Lions TE Sam LaPorta will return to the field this week.

• Will Anderson Jr. will return for the Texans, but they may still be shorthanded up front with DT Foley Fatukasi out and DT Denico Autry questionable.

• Panthers WR Adam Thielen seems likely to play this week. RB Miles Sanders is headed to the IR.

• Both Raiders’ RBs remain doubtful for this week: Alexander Mattison (ankle), Zamir White (quad). Cornerbacks Jakorian Bennett (shoulder) and Nate Hobbs (ankle) are also out, with a third CB, Jack Jones, listed as questionable.

• Dolphins tackle Terron Armstead is a game-time decision

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Weather ⛈

• ARI/SEA - showing a 60-70% chance of rain

• TB/NYG - Windiest game on the docket with 15+ sustained and 30mph gusts

• GB/SF is looking cleaner than it was during the week leading up, rain chances are dropping, so it may just be a cold game rather than a cold, wet game.

• MIN/CHI - Winds still looking like they’ll be under 15 mph, so maybe just a normal fall day in Chicago.

Situational 📆

• Minnesota is on its third straight week on the road

• Tampa Bay and the Giants will face each other, both off their bye week

• WIDOWMAKER: The Cowboys are on a short week, facing extra-rested Washington

• Carolina is off their bye hosting KC, who is on a back-to-back travel spot

• Houston is coming off MNF, so they’ve had a shorter-than-normal week to prep

• Arizona is off their bye week, heading to Seattle

• Philly has extra rest coming off TNF as they head to play the Rams in LA

• Baltimore is on the second straight week of traveling as they also head to LA on Monday.

• NO TEAMS are headed into their bye weeks. All 32 teams play on Thanksgiving week.

• Speaking of: Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Green Bay, Dallas, and the NY Giants all play on Thursday for the holiday. The Chiefs and Raiders are the black Friday game.

Sunday Bets

Colts +7.5 -120

A little spendier than it was earlier in the week as this has been a hot side; I still like this spot for the Colts against the best and hottest damn team in the league. I thought they did an amazing job of getting the offense tailored to Richardson’s strengths last week, but now they face an easier defensive test. The Lions will have a new green dot LB, and they will be getting the communication from the sideline with Alex Anzalone sidelined for some time. The Lions are also dealing with some injuries in the secondary.

Miami team total over 27.5

It’s a big number, but this has become one of my lower-rated defenses they’ll be going up against. Tua has quietly been one of the most efficient QBs since returning from injury. His 0.365 EPA/play over the past 4 weeks is third behind only Kyler and Jared Goff. I like the full game over in this as well, but I leaned more toward this, with the Miami defense being a little hit or miss for me so far. With cornerback Christian Gonzalez is now questionable with a hip injury, this could be a nice day for the speedy Miami offense.

Dallas/Washington over 45

I would have loved Brandin Cooks to return, but even without him, this is still CeeDee Lamb against a weak secondary. So long as Cooper Rush can stay upright, I think he’ll be able to move the ball. He didn’t look that terrible last week and even with some improvements, this Washington defense is a far cry from where Houston is at. I’d expect a half-decent day from him. Meanwhile, the Dallas run stop, secondary, tackling, and everything else on that side of the ball is in in disarray.

If you’re a trends guy, this rest disparity spot (one team off TNF, the other off MNF) goes over at about a 70% clip as well.

Minnesota -4 +106

Sold this out past the number since I’m not going to pay extra for -3 in this one. With the secondary beat-up, I’d expect a nice day for the Vikings pass catchers. I’m guessing they’re getting a little extra love based on a nice (relative) performance by the new OC in town, but this is a much tougher matchup for a young QB, a fresh play caller and a running game that’s been stuck in mud at times. I would think we see some fun pressure looks from Minnesota DC Brian Flores.

Teaser Houston -2/Miami -1.5

Double dipping in TWO games for a 6-point teaser. But more of the same: love both matchups for these offenses against two defenses that are miles away from where they started the season.

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Still need an opinion on a specific game? We covered em all on Wednesday. Click the show, and find the time stamp for what you’re still up in the air on.

Prop Bets: Check out Connor, Noonan & Slop giving out tons of free bets

The Numbers: My Power Ratings Update for the Week

Head Start: Week Thirteen Lookahead Lines

Game by Game: The Deep Dive Week 12 Preview Show

Podcast: Deep Dive Week Seven Preview Podcast (Apple | Spotify)

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