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Good morning from Adam Schefter.

Detroit 📈

They are probably about as high as they can go, and I’d assume they are #1 in any sort of rating system right now. This is likely the best offensive line, a top-5 play caller in Ben Johnson, and they can beat you in a multitude of ways offensively.  

Losing another defender that matters isn’t great, but that may be more impactful come January than it is right now. A tough stretch ahead will help determine if the current Super Bowl favorites have taken another step forward or if they’re still very beatable by the right team in the playoffs again.

Other upgrades: BUF, PIT, PHI, HOU

• The Bills got a massive win in their quest to steal the top seed. They’ll still need some help from the Chiefs, but Josh Allen is starting to really step up and is turning this team into a juggernaut.

• It wasn’t pretty offensively at times, but that was a big win for Pittsburgh and their grip on the AFC North. It always feels like something’s gotta give with them but Wilson is playing well enough and the defense continues to keep games close even against top teams.

• Philly scares me since they’ve decided to take nose dives at the end of the year a couple of times over the past few seasons, but for now, this is an elite defense paired with the perfect offense to work with a lead.

• Nico Collins's stat line won’t show just how “back” he is, and that wasn’t exactly the stiffest competition on Monday, but seeing the offense look much more viable has me moving the Texans back up. Will Anderson may still be a couple of weeks out, but the defense is very good as well.

Dallas 📉

Having a terrible run defense is going to continue to be exacerbated as they will likely be in more and more game states where they trail. There were things that worked at times offensively, and CeeDee Lamb is still a dangerous weapon, but the playcalling at times is pretty rough, and Cooper Rush is taking some drive-killing sacks. He’s basically Will Levis with a star on his helmet.

There are some players starting to return from injury, but with the current QB situation, I’m not so sure that Brandin Cooks and Marshawn Kneeland are enough to move the needle.

Other downgrades: NYG, WAS, ATL

• Not as big of a downgrade as I thought for Daniel Jones to Tommy DeVito, but only because I had a very low rating at QB already. DeVito had the second-worst success rate among passers last year (min. 250 snaps).

• I’m still keen on Washington, but as I said last Thursday, maybe they are a “good-not-great” team and that’s just fine, all things considered. A little correction on their price and I’m just realizing that this is the third straight NFC East team I downgraded. Congrats to Philly, I guess?

• The defensive injuries piled up, and they mattered a lot last week. They gave up 400 yards to the Broncos and put themselves in a bad spot against a bad pass rush with their less-than-mobile QB. Not every matchup is going to be this bad, but if they don’t start getting some guys healthy, there’s a chance the Falcons end up collapsing and losing their playoff spot.

My Top 5 Disagreements

I'm not betting on all of these (yet), but I just wanted to highlight some spots where my numbers do not line up with the market prices after my first run-through. Injuries, matchups, situational stuff, and team tendencies will help me adjust as the week goes on, but here are my top five as we stand on Wednesday morning.

1. I’m quite a bit off on SF/GB, a lot closer to a pk’em than the current Packers -2.5 at the moment. Some of this is just me having to make some adjustments for injuries as we find out more in today’s practice reports.

2. I’ve downgraded Dallas enough that I have Washington closer to -13 than -10. Deciding on how I approach this one will come down to matchups.

3. As much as I love Tampa Bay, I’m still pricing them as if Tristan Wirfs would be out right now, and while I do hold some Tampa -3 from the lookahead bets last Friday, I’m not quite able to get out to -5.5 here at the moment. The Giants’ pass rush is their top unit. I’m also pricing this (at the moment) as if Mike Evans is not back. They’d get a small bump up for his return.

4. I make Minnesota more like a 5.5-point favorite in Chicago. Nightmare matchups all around for the Bears against a top WR tandem and a good pass rush, seeing how they’re thin at OL and in the defensive backfield. This one’s a bet.

5. The matchups will likely keep me off of this, but my numbers disagree on how big of a favorite the Broncos should be on the road in the division. Currently -5.5 in the market versus the Raiders; I’m closer to a field goal.

Playoff Markets

I took the updated power ratings, ran them through the Unabated simulator, and let it rip while I hunted down the perfect Dan Campbell photo for the newsletter cover shot today. Once it finished, I took a dive into the division and playoff odds for all 32 teams. This has suddenly become a huge talking point for about five teams on Discord and Twitter.

I need to spend a little more time looking at schedules, possible players returning from injuries, and matchups before I pull the trigger on any of these. I’ll talk about them all on the podcast tonight as we get to the games and let you know if I’m adding any futures this week.

Here are the seven wagers that my numbers like and that aren’t Ravens -2000 to make the division (my fair is -2677).

Rams +550 to win the NFC West (my fair price +478)

Seahawks +600 to win the NFC West (my fair price +470)

Commanders +450 to win the NFC East (my fair price +348)

Vikings +600 to win the NFC North (my fair price +496)

Baltimore +160 to win the AFC North (my fair price +145)

Broncos to make the playoffs +100 (my fair price -114)

Colts to make the playoffs +180 (my fair price +144)

🚨Podcast Tonight🚨

Six teams on byes, so we can let a few of these games breathe a bit tonight. If you can join us live, we’d love it. Bring your questions, and we’ll do our best to answer them.

Live at 7 PM ET on YouTube and available in podcast form tomorrow morning.

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