Week 11 Lookahead Lines

Five more EXTRA early bets ahead of the weekend

Wicked good game last night (once again marred by the officiating at the end). Lamar is now the MVP front runner, but we still have some very meaningful games in the coming weeks. If Buffalo goes on a run against the competition they have lined up, Josh should be right back in this. Still a banger and even though all my anytime TD bets failed, we did end up on the right side of the 2nd half with Ravens -4.5 on the halftime stream.

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Lookaheads

Last week’s lookahead bets were a bit of a mixed bag but mostly positive (we still need to play the games). The Bears -6.5 and Atlanta/New Orleans over 47 lost a half point each off the prices I took last Friday. Denver/KC under 42 moved down a half point in my favor, Colts +4.5 did as well. The big winner was San Fran/Tampa over 47.5, currently at 50.5 after a nice performance by Baker against a tough KC defense and SF looking healthier on the offensive side of the ball.

This week, I’ll be firing on a few more that I think should/could shift in my favor:

Chicago +3 +100

Seattle/San Francisco over 49

LA Rams/New England over 43

Minnesota/Tennessee under 42.5

Houston/Dallas under 42.5

Keeping an eye on

Weather

Bears weather may be present in Chicago. Keep an eye on the winds in that one. Same story in Kansas City and Tampa Bay, with winds not quite to the 15 mph threshold, but strong gusts expected.

Vikings/Jaguars looks to be a messy one with similar wind concerns but also a chance of rain throughout. There is a chance for rain as well in Washington.

Injuries

  • Really doesn’t feel like Trevor Lawrence plays, but we’ve been fooled before and it’s a legit 3-4 point adjustment to the line.

  • Baker Mayfield has a toe issue that’s kept him out of practice, but he does sound like he’ll be on the field Sunday.

  • Michael Pittman is out for the week

  • Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) won't play Week 10.

  • The Bills WR room is again beat up with Amari Cooper questionable and Keon Coleman ruled out

  • Nico Collins has been designated to return to practice and was seen out there today. I’m still assuming he’s out for Sunday, but again, he matters so much to this team, it’s worth monitoring.

  • Certainly sounds like CMC is playing, finally. Deebo and Jauan Jennings as well.

  • Dak Prescott still hasn’t decided if he’s having surgery on his hamstring or not. CeeDee Lamb continues to be limited in practice with his shoulder injury.

  • Eagles TE Dallas Goedert is back to practicing after missing multiple weeks!

  • Other guys I’m watching: Tony Pollard, Drake London, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Brian Robinson, Khalil Mack, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Gabe Davis, Dameon Pierce, and suddenly Jalen Hurts.

I’ll be updating my full list of injuries all afternoon, still catching up. This part of the season tends to have some pretty long lists for a few teams.

All season long we’ve seen the underdog teasers do well when pushed out past a TD, but the Browns +2, Bears +1.5, and Packers +2.5 lost by a combine 47 points. Seattle +2 got home if that made your card. It was the big favorites teased down that cleared nicely with Cincy -8 in a blowout, Philly -7.5 holding on despite themselves, and Kansas City -8.5 finding a way (never in doubt) in overtime.

A decent amount of looks this week as the board sits right now. Kansas City’s defense has a bit of an easier test and should continue to see more out of Nuk. The Chargers may actually be the best defense in that division and face a Tennessee team that should scare anyone. Philly is a bit dicy with accidental reports that Jalen Hurts may have an ankle issue, but Dallas is starting a backup vs that pass rush.

The underdogs all have good cases, but the cold water for Pittsburgh would be going up against a high end offense on the road. The Cards defense stinks but Kyler should look better against the Jets pass rush than Stroud did. Lastly, the Dolphins actually got a pretty stellar game out of Tua last week, but they’ll again face an offense that could dice them up. Stafford isn’t Josh Allen, but the WRs he has have a massive mismatch against the Miami coverage unit.

Week 10 Teaser Rankings (Best to Worst)

  1. Kansas City -8

  2. LA Chargers -7.5

  3. Philadelphia -7.5

  4. Arizona +1.5

  5. Pittsburgh +2.5

  6. Miami +1.5

  7. Bonus: Minnesota -7.5 if it gets there?

See ya Sunday morning! Have a GREAT WEEKEND!