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Minnesota 📈

Cam Robinson looked good, especially considering the very abbreviated amount of practice time he’s had with his new team. Hell, we even got a little production out of rookie pass rusher Dallas Turner. Darnold is going to make mistakes, he’s definitely got a ceiling. But the playcalling and scheme of KOC is more than enough to overcome that. Likely should have have closer to 30 points last week, the young kicker being injured is a bit of a bummer.

Other upgrades: PIT, CIN, KC

• The Steelers upgrade is more of a catch up for me. I doubted Russ a bit (still do, just to a lesser extent), but the coaching, defense and run game is all above average and this team should be considered a legit threat to do enough to keep fending off the Ravens for the division.

• Cincy had an easy test, but seeing Burrow do what the did without Higgins was a breath of fresh air. The defense is still flawed and losing Moss isn’t great, but if they can just keep excelling as a passing offense, they can simply outscore you.

• Hopkins paying immediate dividends in Kansas City. Not what you want to see if you’re the other 31 teams.

Dallas 📉

It's an obvious one, but it's worth discussing. Even though we saw a nice garbage time drive and some success in previous stints, this is still a decent downgrade. I think this would have been a much bigger downgrade if the offense looked better, but I already had this offense fairly low after the struggles and there’s just not room for a sizeable downgrade. Only dropping my QB grade by about three points.

The addition of Jonathan Mingo likely has little to no effect on this team’s offensive success going forward.

Other downgrades: NO, IND

• Maybe the Saints get the interim coach bump this week, but it’s certainly not a great time to face a good offense with the defensive injuries and the trade of Lattimore. Without Olave and with Carr looking like he may have been rushed back, this team is moving down.

• Flacco was pretty bad, all things considered. He didn’t look like much of an upgrade, even allowing some leeway for playing a good defense on the road. I think Jonathan Taylor will play well behind this line going forward, which kept me from moving this Colts number too much.

Win Totals

I ran my numbers through a couple of simulators this morning as I start to dig into some mid season futures bets. Hat tip to Christopher Davis for having some cool instant data viz for me using his sim site. The big line through the middle is my average projection.

Week Ten Best and Worst

Top and bottom five from my updated ratings for the week. Congrats to the AFC West for having three elite defenses.

…and since I haven’t done a tier in a while (and I enjoy them), I sat down and tossed one together. This is not the same order as my power ratings. Those are for game-by-game comparisons. This is more of a look at how I think the season and the playoff picture are shaping up.

🚨Live Stream Tonight🚨

Getting together with Drew again tonight after a pretty damn decent week 9. We’ll try to replicate the success as we go over each game, the matchups inside the matchups, the injuries that matter, the adjustments we made, and most importantly: what we bet on this week. See ya at 7 PM ET

As always, it’ll be out in podcast form tomorrow morning.

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