bet365 is the official odds provider for the Deep Dive Newsletter

Last night, the Jets kept the season alive, and the big takeaway was the pass rush waking up. After some weird offseason moves and a lackluster season so far, they were by far the most impressive part of the win for me. If that can keep up and the corners get healthy, this defense should start sliding back up the rankings. With Rodgers and Adams getting comfortable again with each other, the sky is the limit! (the sky, in this case, is a wildcard spot.)

I moved their probability of making the playoffs into the double digits! It’s a start.

The other takeaway, of course, is how sick Wilson’s catch was and how happy I was that they ended up calling it a TD. Maybe controversial but I still think OBJs was clearly better.

ICYMI

My Week Nine Power Ratings Update

Deep Dive Week Nine Betting Preview

Also in podcast form ( Apple | Spotify)

4for4 Player Prop Livestream

Be cool and subscribe to the YouTube channel while you’re here

Lookaheads for Week 10

Philadelphia's -2.5 heading to Dallas was tempting, but with Parsons, Bland, and other injury situations improving for Dallas, it’s hard to see this getting to -3, even if Dallas looks bad against Atlanta this weekend.

Similarly, Washington's -1.5 for next week is piquing my interest, but the risk of reinjury for Daniels coupled with the Steelers sitting on bye where nothing bad can happen has me off.

I did add a few spots that I like ahead of time for next week. More than I like to, but such is life. So here’s to good results, great injury news and some CLV to keep me warm next week.

Chicago -6.5

Indianapolis +4.5

Atlanta/New Orleans over 47

San Francisco/Tampa Bay over 47.5

Denver/Kansas City under 42

Keeping an eye on:

Weather

• Kansas City (hosting Tampa) may see some rain

• Green Bay (hosting Detroit) is likely to get some rain and could have game-time temperatures in the 40s.

• Both Cleveland (vs Chargers) and Cincinnati (vs Raiders) could see some rain.

• Seattle (hosting the Rams) again could get some rain

Injuries

• Jordan Love says it’s realistic for him to play this weekend, even with limited practice time.

• Tee Higgins is still not practicing on Friday. This doesn’t bode well for him making a return.

• Derek Carr is expected to start this week; he hasn’t seemed to have any setbacks.

• After having a nice little breakout last week, Giants RB Tyrone Tracy is expected to clear the concussion protocol.

• Rams WR Puka Nacua showed how important he is to the offense last time out. His knee injury is said not to be “serious.” Worth monitoring, obviously

• Drake Maye remains in the concussion protocol despite practicing in a limited sense all week. His status for the game likely won’t be decided until Saturday or Sunday.

• Andy Dalton has been a full participant in practice, but Bryce Young will get the start.

• Watching all the Miami injuries, especially on the defensive side where they have a half dozen or so at all three levels.

• Similarly, the Browns have a few injuries on defense that might matter, including multiple pass rushers and CB Denzel Ward (concussion)

• Also, I am keeping a close eye on the Bears and Jags offensive line injuries.

• Check out my full notes.

If you teased the Texans +2.5 last night with something from the weekend, congrats and maybe you should consider figuring out what Demeco Ryans’ favorite charity is ahead of the holidays.

It feels like a banger in Philly, but that’s a team that can struggle a bit if they aren’t front-running (not enough to scare me off). Jameis as a teaser leg is scary, but it just doesn’t seem like a spot where they’ll be blown out. The rest have their warts, but I’ll likely be mixing and matching a bit of Baltimore, KC and the Bears in as well.

Week 18 Teaser Rankings (Best to Worst)

See ya Sunday morning! Have a GREAT WEEKEND!