NFL Week Two (Overreaction Week) 🥴

Working through the rest of the awards updates as well, but wanted to get to my favorite one right off the bat. Not a big shift in any of the odds, but a few guys jumped up based off week one. Mostly the same names at the top with a little bit of separation in the three QBs. I’m still cheering for Flowers.

Starting from the top….

Bijan Robinson

Current Odds: +260 (previously +300)

32/48 offensive snaps, 21 in the backfield, 11 as a receiver. Bijan had 10 carries for 56 yards, 6 catches on 6 targets for 27 yards, and a nice TD on a bubble screen where he slipped multiple tackles. The only issue is that Tyler Allgeier still exists and is getting the bulk of the carries for now.

Anthony Richardson

Current Odds: +600 (Previously +800)

AR was 24/37 for 223 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT and was sacked 4 times. He also had 10 carries for 40 yards and a TD. The bright spot was the rushing TD and having had the highest scoring output for the three rookie QBs even if we just call it 14 instead of 21 (which we should since one of Indy’s TDs was a scoop and score).

Bryce Young

Current Odds: +900 (Previously +500)

20/38 for 146 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs and three carries for 17 yards. Took two sacks, and had one fumble that he recovered himself. Young was missing his top wide receiver in D.J. Chark, but even at full strength, this offense may not have enough pieces to keep him in this race.

I looked at the snaps, stats, and general temp on the rest of the market as well if you want to read through my notes here ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Overreaction week is a real pain in the ass and truthfully there’s one massive lesson I’ve learned over the years that applies to every week, but especially here: you don’t have to bet every game. There are a couple that are exceedingly difficult to price and bet and I’m just going to gloss right over them and move on to spots where I think I have a good enough grip on how the two teams should be rated.

Example number one is the 49ers vs. Rams game this week. I certainly needed to bump the 49ers up a bit after a dominant road performance on both sides of the ball, but pricing the Rams is a bit of a problem. I’m more willing to lay blame on the Seahawks than to laud the Rams for now but currently, my pricing says I should consider betting on Los Angeles in this one. (yeah, I know I teased the 49ers with the Jets on Monday)

A look at the adjustments I’ve made to my pricing for the upcoming week:

Biggest Upgrades:

• Dallas - Game state got thrown off kilter right off the bat with the D/ST scores, but the Dan Quinn defense looked great and the offense moved just fine for a road game in the rain. I do not miss Zeke

• San Fransisco - Beat the tar out of a team on the road, and looked good in all phases. The only reason I started them a bit lower to begin the season was the Purdy factor.

• Cleveland - The offense was not great outside of Chubb, but I had this team a bit lower than I probably should have. The addition of Jim Schwartz at DC may make them a big problem for offenses all year. This upgrade is almost completely due to the defense. Losing an offensive lineman sucks though, and totals will remain low in Browns games until further notice.

  

Biggest Downgrades (that aren’t the Jets):

• Pittsburgh - A tough opponent to face to start the season, but looked lost for most of the game. The Injuries to Dionte Johnson and Cam Heyward are certainly playing a part here.

• Seattle - We talked about the strange roster-building strategy in the offseason but gave the leadership the benefit of the doubt. With some of the worst grading for coverage and pass rush in the league last week against a team missing their top weapon, it was not hard to give the defense a big downgrade. The injuries to the O-Line are bad enough that they just signed a 41-year-old.

• NY Giants - I almost bet them at +3.5 after the injuries up front for Dallas up front. Near miss! Even with the context of how good the Dallas defense is, the weather, and the game state, it was just a poor showing all around.

Pumping Brakes:

• Philadelphia - Philly's offense was very much below average, but it was against what I expected to be a high-end defense, so the jury’s still out. The offense will likely be something halfway between what we saw last week and what we’ll see against Minnesota tomorrow. (Update: Garrett Bradbury has been ruled out and you might get another show from this Eagles pass rush as well)

• Baltimore - I have them on watch. The offense didn’t look great at times under new play-caller Todd Monken. Unless Lamar gets comfortable, really fast they could stack some losses. You can’t play Houston every week.

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