Bills vs Jets Best Bets

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Closing out the week with a very fun divisional matchup tonight and I’ll be damned if Jets money isn’t showing up again this morning. This spread has bounced around a bit but hasn’t really tested -3 and today again saw a drop to the current Bills -2.

The Total has seen nothing but under moves since the mid-summer early lines of 46.5/47. Currently, at 45, it’ll be interesting to see if this continues down and pushes up against 44.

Even without betting on this one, it’s a crazy fun game from a “finding out” standpoint. Hard Knocks isn’t real life, but man it seems like Rodgers is in a good place for the first time since he told us to Relax. Excited to see Nate Hackett prove me wrong and come up with a viable game plan with the weapons he’s been given.

I don’t have a strong take on this game, I’m pretty on market with my power ratings making this one Buffalo -2.2 and the total in the 44-46 range as well. I do have the Jets +8.5 to close out some teasers, so in the interest of betting something today, I’ll put together ONE MORE teaser with a week 2 line I like.

As always, some darts for tonight. I bet these fairly small, so take it easy, have fun, and let me know if you have a sneaky long shot with a good enough reason to put a few bucks on.

Dalvin Cook +850

Hate prices that are this low, but he’s still a good back and apparently will be leading the running back room for now.

Josh Allen +1100

The Jets gave up six rushing TDs to QBs last year, tied for third-most in the league, and Allen isn’t afraid to call his own number. He had the third most rushing attempts amongst QBs last year and scored seven times on the ground in 2022.

Allen Lazard +1700

Wilson is clearly the number one wideout, but Rodgers has still only spent a single training camp with him and his price is sitting down at 9/1 in this market. Lazard was Rodgers’ top target last year with the savvy old signal caller looking for him 100 times with Green Bay. He was also tied with Christian Watson last year with 17 Red Zone targets.

Dalton Kincaid +2200

Not only are we expecting a ton more 12 personnel this year from the Bills, but Kincaid was getting a bunch of snaps in the slot during the preseason. It took a coin flip to decide on which of the two TEs to take. So looking forward to the inevitable long TD to Dawson Knox.

I wanted to take some Tyler Conklin, but I’m not 100% sure what the mix between him, Uzomah, and Ruckert will look like at tight end for the Jets, so I’ll be sticking to these four for now

A Good weekend for me/the newsletter all things considered!

✅ Winners: Tampa +5, Green Bay ML, Miami +3, Jags/Colts over 46, Noonan’s defensive prop and Connor’s Mixon prop. Also moved to 2-0 on the primetime halftime show 2H bets with the DAL/NYG under 18.5 last night, despite Drew being inside of a Long Beach Uber.

We’ll be back at it tonight for halftime in New Jersey with our attempt for a 3-0 primetime halftime week.

❌Losers: The teaser I decided to highlight: Steelers/Commanders. Pittsburgh was dead on arrival.

Although the silver lining is that all the other “math” teaser legs I mentioned did win if you did some mixing and matching (NYJ pending).

Doing a recap stream/podcast today at 2:30 EST on the YouTube channel where we’ll hit on all the games so far and look ahead at MNF/week 2, but I did have a couple quick thoughts I wanted to get off my chest.

Negatives

-The Bears are doing themselves a great disservice with the playcalling so far. Green Bay showed up and deserved the win, but the Bears’ offensive game plan needs to change in a hurry. It’s one thing to lose games this year, it’s another to end up in the same spot as last year in January, not knowing enough about Fields to make a decision moving forward. I’d throw it to DJ Moore more than twice per game going forward.

-Denver may just not have the weapons to get Russ back to where they hope. Jeudy hopefully is back soon, but they also likely lost one of their tight ends, Greg Dulcich, for a bit to a hamstring injury.

-Adding Kellen Moore to the Chargers may have exacerbated Herbert’s reluctance to throw deep. They scored a bunch, but it’s a shame to waste a cannon like that on 5.5 yards per pass.

Positives

-The 49ers may be the best team in the league. If there is no massive drop-off for Purdy compared to what we got out of him last year, the NFC runs through the Bay Area. Truly a great performance on both sides of the ball against a well-coached team with a bunch of top defenders.

-The score was a little misleading, but Jordan Love looked good enough for the Packers to win the NFC North this year. His deep ball needs a little help as he missed a couple of easy TDs, but overall it’s a passing grade considering he was missing his top WR in Christian Watson.

-Jim Schwartz may have unlocked a bonus we didn’t know Miles Garrett had. His sack was from the edge, but he looked pretty good sneaking up to the line from the ILB spot. Extra flexibility, misdirection, and confusion are going to be a plus for this already good defensive front.

The Ravens likely got the worst of it in week one. RB J.K. Dobbins is out for the year, and the Ravens are now forced to bring Melvin Gordon up from the practice squad. With Mark Andrews and Marlon Humphry missing week 1 due to injuries, they also saw safety Marcus Williams leave the game with a shoulder injury, left tackle Ronnie Stanley get banged up with a knee injury, and center Tyler Linderbaum tweak an ankle.

Also in the AFC North, the Jack Conklin injury turned out to be a worst-case scenario for Cleveland. Expecting rookie Dawand Jones to step in at RT for now.

I’ll be keeping an eye on a bunch, but Jeff does a good job of rounding up the injuries every Monday, and is worth a quick read ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Last Call for Survivor

good news/bad news: you can still enter, and 1471 people are out before you even started but, you have to pick either the Jets or Bills tonight. Winner goes to the Super Bowl.

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