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While I’ve always paid close attention to the awards markets during the year, this season I wanted to be set up with more of a plan rather than the scattershot approach I’ve often taken. Hoping to tie up less money in the summer and have a few spots where I can take some live shots at lagging prices as players begin to find bigger roles due to any number of reasons.

Award markets are tough because you can often “nail” your prediction for a certain player and still lose. The overall landscape plays a big part in how this will all shake out when they hand out the trophies next year. Justin Jefferson’s rookie numbers were not far off what his college teammate Jamar Chase would put up when he won the award and were a fair bit better than Garrett Wilson’s winning stat line last year. That said, Justin Herbert threw for 4,000 yards and 31 TDs in the same year, whatcha gonna do?

Another wrinkle: Last year was the first time we saw ranked-choice voting, where selections were made for 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place by each voter. The biggest takeaway is that someone who’s clearly the 1st or 2nd choice for the majority gets a boost with the 2nd place votes putting him over the top. Kenneth Walker actually had the most 1st place votes, but Garrett Wilson’s overall score gave him the award. If you had only given each person a single vote, would it still have turned out with Walker getting more than Wilson? Probably not, but it’s a useless hypothetical and we’ll need to start thinking about how this will affect things when ballots are cast going forward.

The basic equation to win: opportunity and stats, and one breeds the other under the right conditions. You don’t even need a great record. Chase and the Bengals did finish as a 10-win division champ the year he won but the Jets went 7-10 last year, Herbert finished 7-9, Kyler Murray and Saquon Barkley won it with 5-win seasons before that. A good team helps, but is not necessary (this is good for our rookie QB class).

The biggest and maybe most important point I’d like to make about Rookie of the Year and all awards is that you don’t have to bet it right now. This will be up all year and you’ll have a chance to add to your portfolio if you see some guys finding big jumps in their usage and opportunities due to performance of or injuries on their teams.

As a lot of places tend to do, and because it’s fun, I’ve put them in three different categories. The Contenders, the Upside Guys and the Dark Horses. I grabbed the best legal odds I could find using the 4for4 Futures Comparison Tool and laid out my thoughts on a couple dozen guys.

The Contenders

Bijan Robinson, Running Back, Atlanta +300

They didn’t draft him that high to not use him, right?

Yes, they have a young 1000-yard rusher on the roster already in Tyler Allgeier and a “do-it-all” guy in Cordarrelle Patterson who also carried the ball 144 times last year, but if they are going to truly commit to leaning into the run again, while also getting Bijan out in space and using him as a receiver much more than he did while at Texas, then he has a chance at big numbers.

One of his main downfalls may turn out to be Ridder though. If he struggles, Bijan will lose carries (more passing situations if the team is trailing) and TD opportunities (bad offenses have fewer red zone chances). The number looks pretty bad off the top, especially considering the fact that there are at least THREE quarterbacks who will get significant starting time this year.

Speaking of…

Bryce Young, Quarterback, Carolina +500

Each of the next three players’ bull case is simple: they are a QB who will start. If they play well enough stat-wise and the team wins a couple more games than last year, they are instantly one of the contenders to win this award. Just like the Herbert/Jefferson example, a QB will usually trump a WR/RB.

Bryce’s knock coming into the draft was obviously his size, and while we didn’t get to see a ton of him yet, it’s not as if a smaller QB hasn’t ever had a good year. Remember, this isn’t a bet that his body holds up for the next 15 years, we just need 3000 yards, a couple dozen tuddies, and some highlights over the next 18 weeks.

His biggest advantage heading into the season may end up being a crazy weak schedule. It’ll vary by source and of course, these things change, but right now most would agree it’s a bottom 5 schedule as far as the strength of opponent. He won’t have the strongest positional group around him, but of the three rookie QBs, he has the most experienced Head Coach, and considering what Frank Reich was able to do as Carson Wentz’s OC, Bryce has a shot to play well enough.

C.J. Stroud, Quarterback, Houston +1000

Not as easy as the Panthers’ schedule, but still projected to be a bottom-10 slate of opponents. The Texans have a ton of “what if?” to them. As posited on the Deep Dive, there’s a chance that this defense isn’t too bad. The issue again is the skill position players surrounding the young signal caller. Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Noah Brown don’t exactly get the blood pumping but, the trio of Tank Dell, Xasvier Hutchinson, and John Metchie offer the hope of upside from three unknowns with potential. Like Carolina, they snagged an offensive coordinator from a proven tree with Bobby Slowik coming over from San Francisco. A defensive-minded head coach puts a bit more pressure on the new OC, but they have a very proven commodity at RB and some competent pieces on the OL. I won’t be betting on him at these pre-season prices and will look for the mid-season emergence of any or all of the young WRs as a possible entry point.

Anthony Richardson, Quarterback, Indianapolis +800

Maybe unfairly labeled as a “project” based on some of his college stats.

Detractors point to his completion percentage and gloss over his rushing stats (654 yards, 9 TDs in 12 games last year). Ryan Noonan (4for4) has already proclaimed his love for AR and made a pretty good case that he succeeded at Florida despite how often they asked him to do things outside of his wheelhouse, instead of working with his strengths. It’s worth a read. Noonan also bet him for OROY earlier this month, along with a couple of others.

While the experience may be lacking for head coach Stane Steichen, I’d have to think he’s very excited to build on what he was able to do with Jalen Hurts, now with a bigger, even more athletic young QB. The team hired Jim Bob Cooter as OC, apparently, I dug in a bit on why and he did cross paths with Steichen a few years back when he took a consulting job with Philly in 2021, so they’ve worked together before. Steichen will still call plays, and if the appetite to use the QB is short yardage is the same as it was for him last year, the upside to an offense with some growing pains could be extra chances via 4th down conversions and a better red zone percentage via goal line sneaks.

Losing Jonathan Taylor for at least the first four games (the team will still be listening to trade offers and can move him any time before October 31st) sucks and the protection wasn’t great last season but, in an attempt to put some spin on that: his sack avoidance ability is elite at times, so a little extra pressure combined with his athleticism may just be what the doctor ordered to pad the stat sheet with scrambling yardage.

The negative side (besides his price): Short, quick stuff could help a QB like him, but for that to work it would help to have a good TE (they don’t) a nice receiving back (JT on the PUP), or an experienced slot WR (they have a rookie, although Josh Downs has looked good). I’m worried that he won’t be able to get the commensurate passing numbers to go along with the possibility of double-digit rushing TDs to actually get the award.

The Upside Guys

The way I look at this, it’s a four-leg parlay. The legs:

• All three QBs with starting jobs play poorly enough

• Bijan doesn’t get the work to put up the stats needed/gets hurt

• The Rookie WR you bet has 1000 yards and half a dozen TDs, or the RB you bet has either the same or the “Kamara Season” (700/700)

• None of the other guys do slightly better (or play in a better media market)

It's just food for thought when you look at the prices. Like anything you do, look at that price as a probability and really think about the odds of meeting those criteria, even if you find an off-market price. Anyways, pressing on:

Zay Flowers, Wide Receiver, Baltimore +2000

Baltimore wasn’t a team that populates high on the “vacated targets” lists if you're looking for the opportunity, but they also were in the bottom five in the league last year in passes thrown per game due to a number of reasons so those numbers are a bit deceiving. There is an opening for someone to step in and become the guy outside of Andrews.

The knock: even in Lamar’s MVP season, we didn’t see a 1000-yard receiver, tight end Mark Andrews led the team in targets, catches, yards, and TDs. The counter-knock: new play caller. Although it’s a bit of an unknown how exactly this new Todd Monken-led offense will look, indications from preseason saw Flowers very active underneath. If OBJ and Bateman can pull defenders deep with him, he could eat in the middle of the field and obviously had the speed and shiftiness to turn high volume/low air yards into bigger numbers with some yards after the catch.

Jordan Addison, Wide Receiver, Minnesota +2200

Of ALL the WRs drafted, he’s the one who’s closest to firmly being in a WR2 spot and should be out on the field quite a bit even in 12/21 personnel. I get that JJ has to eat but on the other side of that coin, the silver lining is having the reigning OPOY taking the top CB and likely some safety help with him a good portion of the time.

Adam Theilen did have 107 targets last year, so if Addison can take what’s left for him and turn the role of possession receiver into something a bit more, this is an offense that likely has 4500 yards to go around.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Wide Receiver, Seattle +2100

I love this kid and really think the world of his long-term success, but it’s a spot with no real non-injury path to rising higher than WR3 this year. Maybe this sounds a bit of hypocritical considering how I framed the situation of Zay Flowers, but I’m not willing to say the two WR rooms’ top ends are even remotely similar.

He’s injured with a broken bone in his hand. The prognosis is always sunny from coaches, but numerous sources pointed out that bones just don’t heal that fast and he’s a WR who uses said hand to catch the ball. The team opted to keep him on the active roster and he won’t have an IR stint, which seems like good news for now.

Even if he does sit a bit, missing games early is much more forgivable to the voters than missing them late.

Quentin Johnston, Wide Receiver, LAC +2500

Maybe another WR who’s further down the depth chart with a good chance to move up just based on the fact that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams tend to miss games.

Chargers are lower on the list of vacated targets/yards/air yards with lower turnover, but with your WR1 taking 60% of their snaps in the slot last year (maybe more now that they can replace Palmer with Johnston), there’s a nice chance at some big stat games for QJ lining up outside opposite Mike Williams. Kellen Moore’s changes loom large, a bit of a wait-and-see bite for me.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Detroit +1000

While I hate any argument that leans on how many TDs a running back (who’s moved on) scored last year, it’s still a part of the equation. I almost don’t want to spend time on this one considering how low the price has gotten. I like Ben Johnson as much as the next guy, but I still expect to see David Montgomery getting snaps. If Gibbs is going to be as big a part of the passing offense as folks are saying, he’s got a shot, I’m just not interested at this price.

Dark Horses

This is already too long so going to keep this semi-brief:

Tank Bigsby, Running Back, Jacksonville (+7500) Love this kid, but the excuses for him not being even bigger in college were running behind a bit of a poor offensive line. He’s running into the same problem as a pro in Jacksonville and now he’s the backup. Exciting fantasy football stash, just don’t see him getting the stats. If ETN is hurt early on and looks to miss time, a big price might be worth an add in an offense on the rise.

Zach Charbonnet, Running Back, Seattle (+5000) Injured a bit already this summer, and sitting behind a guy in KWIII who got some rookie of the year votes last year. Despite the depth at WR, it’s still a team that loves to run. If this price drops, he’s behind a guy who just suffered a groin injury and that alone makes him interesting.

Rashee Rice, Wide Receiver, Kansas City (+4000) Patrick Mahomes in his quarterback. If he’s back in week 1, Rice may find himself behind Kadarius Toney on the depth chart. Kelce is likely to see 150+ targets again but, he’s still someone to watch out for if his snaps and target share increase.

De'Von Achane, Running Back, Miami (+6000) Well, they didn’t sign Jonathan Taylor! So that’s a positive for now. Still in a running back by committee but Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson are both injury worries. If he slides into a spot where he’s getting consistent touches and targets, he’s worth a peek at a big number.

Jayden Reed, Wide Receiver, Green Bay (+10000) High upside, likely better than Doubs, but currently the usage looks like he’s still WR3 playing mostly slot and off the field when the Packers bring in two TEs. If he can work his way into the WR2 spot, this is the team with the most vacated targets from last year with 200+ catches and over 2000 yards no longer on the team. The opportunities for numbers are there if he can get more snaps.

Jalin Hyatt, Wide Receiver, New York Giants (+5000) I wish he were bigger, but the math adds up. He did it on the field last year in Knoxville and the Giants have a need for someone to step up at WR. I think Waller becomes a de facto WR1 here, but there’s still plenty of meat on the bone in the Daboll/Kafka offense and I’ll be paying close attention to his snaps and routes early in the year.

The Tight Ends - A tight end has NEVER won OROY, but obviously, the position has evolved quite a bit recently. I think the stigma of the position is enough to keep most voters in the mindset of “he had a real nice year, I’m going to reward him with a 3rd place vote”. Kincaid (+4000) has the biggest opportunity, Musgrave is my favorite to have a monster year, and LaPorta & Mayer could sneak into a conversation (all three at +10000 or bigger).

Bonus Section: Other Guys to Monitor:

• All the other Quarterbacks, (i.e. who can pull a Dak)

  • Aiden O’Connell - Las Vegas (+5000) may be a viable longshot because he plays QB behind a guy who’s been injured seemingly every year. Final Roster has him listed as the #3 behind Brian Hoyer, so maybe the dream of Dak II is dead for now, especially at 50/1.

  • Will Levis - Tennessee (+7500) Difficult to assume that they’d use him over Malik Willis given the time missed in camp/preseason. Also listed as the #3 on the depth chart. Also, not the offensive line I’d want to have protecting my bet.

  • Dorian Thompson-Robinson - Cleveland (+10000) had everyone pretty excited and comes with the bonus of being on a good team (Dak went 13-3 when he took over for Romo). He is the #2, so this is a “run to the window” bet you make anywhere that leaves odds up if you see Watson grab his knee.

  • Stetson Bennett (LAR) and Clayton Tune (ARZ) have realistic shots to play significant time this year, but it’d be really tough for me to bet on either. I refuse to list their prices.

• Josh Downs, Wide Receiver, Indianapolis (+10000)

  • Love Downs, but for the same reasons one could be lower on Anthony Richardson, it’s hard for me to see him find a way to the 1,000-yard/8 TD season that seems to be the bar to clear to get in the conversation this winter.

• Late Addition: Evan Hull, Running Back, Indianapolis (+7500)

  • He’s suddenly the best pass-catching option out of the backfield, has shown he can handle pass protection assignments and the opportunity afforded to him given the Jonathan Taylor mess is massive. The price is really big if you think it’s worth a tickle. Multiple rookies on the roster (especially Richardson) that will steal away votes and credit if the offense succeeds are the downside, so he’ll likely need a big year rushing and receiving.

• Second Late Addition: Marvin Mims, Wide Receiver, Denver (+6000)

  • Gets a bump after the injuries, but we still aren’t 100% sure what his usage looks like nor if Payton can fix Russ…. holding pattern with a close eye on week one.

Who did I miss? By all means, leave me a comment about the sneaky upside of Trey Palmer or Roschon Johnson, I’m all ears.

Q: Hey, I just read (skimmed) 3000 words, did you actually make a bet?

A: After spending most of the morning on this I did indeed go shop a couple of positions.

I’ll work on weekly (much shorter) updates throughout the season, and you’ll be the first to know who the next addition to the portfolio is.

Hey Kentucky!

Legal betting is live Sept 28th, but the pre-registration period is open and you will more than likely be able to double dip on offers over the next month.

If you do live in the Bluegrass State and want to nab $450 in bonus bets ahead of time:

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