Week 3 NFL Best Bets: Sides, Totals, Moneylines and Props

Weather

Tropical Storm Ophelia is making landfall and will affect a few games today, although I think it’s going to be a much lighter weather impact than originally thought. Rain usually isn’t a massive factor unless it’s really heavy. It’s the wind that can really mess things up, especially from a totals standpoint.

The three games that were expected to be impacted the most were:

Bills @ Commanders

Colts @ Baltimore

Patriots @ Jets

According to everything I can find at online weather sites and talking to a few people in the DMV area, the worst of things was yesterday and the conditions for the Baltimore and DC games shouldn’t be too bad.

The Meadowlands is a different story. Not just the rain that should continue all day, but sustained winds close to 15 mph with gusts into the 30s. This one was already a very low total with two solid defenses up against two struggling offenses, but has continued to see under money, now sitting at 35.5 and trending lower as I type this. Could be an all-time slogfest.

Burrow Situation

Nothing is for certain, and I learned a harsh lesson last year when everyone on Earth except Justin Herbert was sure that Justin Herbert would be sitting out with an injury (he should have).

That said, the moves we’ve seen from the team, the quotes from teammates, and the meeting Burrow had with the owner make this feel like a spot where you don’t see the young gunslinger out there. Patrick over at Bleacher Nation covered all of the Burrow-related going-ons in more detail.

Most places have moved off the 3 and down to Cincy -2.5, but if you buy what we’re selling, this should drop a little further once he’s actually ruled out. My best guess would be around a pk’em for Stafford vs Browning.

ALL WEEK 3 INJURY NEWS

Went over every game on Wednesday afternoon, a little quicker this week as Drew was joining us from his Croatian vacation at like midnight local. Time stamps in the video notes if you want to skip to a certain game. Podcast is available for anyone who wants to listen while they prep the Sunday feast.

Everything I’ve wagered on, including a few things I’ve added just this morning.

Panthers +5

Missed the best of this on Friday and kicking myself for it but as of right now, Andy Dalton is probably a very mild upgrade at QB. We last saw the Seahawks put up 37 on the Lions, but this is a much stiffer test for them defensively, especially up front with their banged-up OL. The injuries to the secondary should help to finally unlock a little bit of offense for Carolina who have played two defenses so far that are playing well above my preseason expectations. I have the Saints and Falcons as the 5th and 10th best defenses so far, respectively. I currently have Seattle 30th.

Eagles -5 (Monday)

I bet Tampa week one as a six-point dog, covered, cashed a small ML, and didn’t adjust their rating one bit. This team has some talent but has been very fortunate thus far in the defenses they’ve played. Swift running for 150 yards this week seems terribly unlikely with Tampa being fairly stout against the run, but the fact that the brain trust in Philly identified the proper game plan and stuck with it to much success last week has me hopeful they can do the same thing this week by attacking Tampa’s secondary with A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

This time they’ll have 10 days to prep instead of 3.

Bears Team Total under 17.5 -125

Half “Chicago is a mess”, half “KC might have a really good defense this year”. Setting the Detroit game aside a bit, we saw an incredible pass rush last week and I think that’s what we'll be getting going forward, especially with another lower-end offensive line to take on this week.

If this defense has a weakness in it currently, it’s still probably coverage, which lines up well this week with a group of receivers that haven’t done much and a QB who isn’t making good reads anyway. The blowout factor here has me a little worried about garbage time points but my projection for the Bears is around 15 in this and I’m happy to get a team in turmoil at this price.

Washington/Buffalo over 43

I advocated for this early in the week and got my hand slapped hard by the market as this took heavy cash to the under all week. Some maybe based on the defenses playing well, some on the weather. Either way, I still make this total 45+ even if I make adjustments for some wind (which I don’t think will be too bad).

Buffalo’s offense looked miles better on the road last week and should be able to replicate some of that success going forward. Meanwhile, I think we are seeing some early positive returns from Eric Bieniemy’s playcalling and mentoring of Sam Howell.

Jaguars -7 (-115)

The Jags ran into a buzzsaw last week and one of the best defensive performances we’ve seen from the champs in a while. I think the offense will be just fine and with the defensive injuries to Houston, this is a GREAT get-right game for Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, and the gang. Multiple starters are now sitting for the Houston secondary a week after we saw them forced to play missing multiple starters on the offensive line. Two cluster injuries this early in the season can make for a very long year.

Sharp money came in on Houston last week, and gameday money is again coming here and I’ll be the buyback at a 7 that I don’t think should have ever shown its face on the board.

Teaser Saints +7.5/Baltimore -1.5

The Packers side took some action with good news on Aaron Jones, but late this week found us wondering if CB1 and true stud Jaire Alexander would be able to go for the Packers Sunday. Already a fairly bad run defense, this would be a crushing blow to that side of the ball. I already liked the Saints in this one, and don’t hate even looking at their ML here (I’m laying off since I bet the Saints to win the South on Monday.)

In the other leg, this will be the best defense Indy has faced all year by quite a margin. Minshew isn’t much of a drop-off, but he limits the big play potential and isn’t the threat in space that we’ve gotten to see so far from Richardson. I have this priced higher than the current -7.5 and will use it with some other legs as well (Pitt +2.5, LAR +2.5)

Another week, another winner from our friend Ryan Noonan. Last week he advocated for Julian Love (Seahawks) Over 5.5 Tackles + assists (he had 13)

We’ll keep these rolling as long as he keeps giving me a free one when I beg for it on Sunday mornings. For this week:

M.J. Stewart (HOU) Over 6.5 Tackles + assists +100

“The Texans defense is in shambles again, and M.J. Stewart will be playing every snap in this one for the Texans. Stewart has been an incredibly efficient tackler in a part-time role, with snap-per-tackle rate of 7.74 over the past two seasons. It's a smaller sample, but that's better than most other safeties and a lot of MLB's. This through two games this season, it's 7.08. He totaled 8 TAs last week playing 100% of the snaps, and with LB Denzel Perryman out, I expect more opportunities will flow back to Stewart here.I have him projected for 7.93 and considered playing the +money 7.5's at open but this buyback against him is a mistake.”