Week Seven NFL Best Bets

and everything else you should know before you fire away this morning

Author

Andy Molitor
October 20, 2024

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News 📰

Injuries 🤕

  • QB Russell Wilson is getting the start for the Steelers “now that he’s fully healthy.”

  • RB Rhamondre Stevenson is good to go for the Pats

  • It doesn’t sound like WR Cooper Kupp is going to return this week.

  • TE Dallas Goedert is out for the Eagles.

  • WR Jakobi Meyers is expected to miss the game for Las Vegas.

  • QB Will Levis is out with a shoulder injury, Mason Rudolph gets the start for Tennessee.  RB Tyjae Spears was ruled out and WR Treylon Burks was put on IR after an injury in practice.

  • RB Aaron Jones is expected to play for the Vikings this week. TJ Hockenson is not.

  • ALL the Colts’ WRs are expected to play. Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs are listed as questionable but should see the field. RB Jonathan Taylor was ruled out earlier in the week, though.

  • Panthers WR Dionte Johnson is expected to play despite an ankle injury.

  • RB Brian Robinson is expected to go for the Commanders.

  • Seattle RB Kenneth Walker is questionable with an illness. The internet has theories on this one.

  • RB Jordan Mason will play for the 49ers today, and WR Jauan Jennings is out.

  • Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster will play

  • RB Nick Chubb will be making his long-awaited return.

Monday:

  • Bucs WR Mike Evans is good to go, Marvin Harrison Jr cleared concussion protocol & Joey Bosa will be OUT. (full updates in tomorrow’s edition)

For the Latest Injury Updates, be sure to have the Bleacher Nation Fantasy App

Weather ⛈

  • London may be rainy. Looking like a 90% chance of rain and some winds. The shape of the stadium likely means the winds don’t matter as much though. Rain trending toward being early and may taper off as the game goes on.

  • Nothing else really stands out, with a bunch of indoor games and a distinct lack of precipitation. I guess you can keep an eye on the wind in Buffalo, Green Bay, and Tampa Bay, but none of them look like they’ll get up toward the 20-25 mph range that can actually affect a game.

Situational 📆

  • NE@”JAX” in London: the Jags travel situation is obviously not the same as they spent the week in England after last week’s debacle.

  • MIA@IND - Miami coming off the bye week

  • TEN@BUF - Buffalo on short rest after playing on MNF

  • CIN@CLE - Cincinnati is on the 2nd week of a back-to-back travel spot (but it’s only up to Cleveland).

  • HOU@GB - Houston is also on the 2nd week of a back-to-back

  • SEA@ATL - Seattle is off extra rest from TNF but is making a cross-country trip

  • DET@MIN - Minnesota off the bye week, Detroit on a back-to-back roadie

  • PHI@NYG - nothing outside of a SAQUON BARKLEY REVENGE GAME

  • LV@LAR - Rams off the bye, Vegas finally moving past the Adams drama

  • KC@SF - Chiefs off the bye, SF off TNF with extra rest as well

  • NYJ@PIT - Jets on a short week off a MNF game

Patriots +6.5

First off, this is a gross one. Secondly, I’m holding off on placing this until closer to game time as it’s inching perilously toward possibly getting to +7 at some square shops.

I have the Patriots as my lowest-rated team currently, but I can’t get to them being this much worse than the Jaguars on a neutral. The Jags have the advantage of being in London all week, and we saw that play out well for them last year versus the Bills, but after last week’s performance, I’m not sure we see the same kind of juice as that 2-2 Jags squad from a year ago. Getting Rhamondre Stevenson back seems like a huge boon for Drake Maye’s success against a poor defense. (albeit one that’s getting CB Tyson Campbell back)

Green Bay/Houston over 48

A ton of things to love about the prospects for both offenses in this one. A strong Green Bay offensive line hampering the pass rush for the Texans while the sometimes problematic Texans line gets a Green Bay front that has been no-showing a bit too much this year. Both QBs should have ample time, and even with WR injuries on both sides, we should see a back-and-forth game where it’s hard to see a game state that puts the dampers on the offenses.

Geno Smith over 36.5 Pass Attempts

I’m still very out on the Seattle defense, both for injuries and just a seeming lack of figuring out how to become successful under the new scheme, and this isn’t a great road spot for them to get right. Projected an awful lot of game states where Atlanta is leading for heavy portions of the game forcing the Seattle offense to do what they’ve done for the better part of a month. This could get blown out of the water again if the Falcons are taking care of business offensively, forcing Grubb to call another 50 dropbacks for Smith.

6-point teaser: Det +7.5/KC +7.5

Two offenses I have rated too highly to get blown out, even by very good defenses. The Lions are apparently getting better as they go, and even as they win games by slim margins, the Chiefs are still the Chiefs, and Mahomes as a dog has been a staple.

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In Case You Missed Anything: We go over every game every week, talking about the line movement, market sentiment, injuries that matter, and our ratings for the game. Both Audio and Video versions have timestamps if you want to jump to a specific game:

Deep Dive Week Seven Preview Podcast (Apple | Spotify)

What’s on the Docket for Tomorrow?

  • MNF Breakdown

  • Sunday First Reactions

One last thing, do me a favor and forward this email to someone you think may like a little more football in their life.