NFL Week Seven Early Line Moves đź“Š

A Horrible Longshot OROY Bet I Made, MNF Recap, and Big Market Moves

Author

Andy Molitor
October 17, 2023

No earth-shattering takeaways for me from this one last night. Impressed with Dak, depressed by most of the playcalling, and sick of yellow flags.

Neither team ran the ball very well and a close game hinged on some massive leverage plays. A couple of 4th down touchdowns were huge and in the end, the 3rd down plays that Dallas was able to make late in the game made the difference here.

Always good to get a road win and Dallas will take it after last week’s ugliness, but going forward they’re going to have to keep Dak a little cleaner. He did a good job of sack avoidance, and was pretty great at times when he was on the move, but still was sacked five times and hit another six.

There were plenty of calls that we obvious and needed to be flagged, but 20 accepted penalties makes for a poor watching experience. I hate the refs so much.

Going down the rest of this boxscore, it’s wild how even a lot of this was, really came down to a few big plays going the Cowboys way late: The Chargers doing a horrid job of finishing Pollard off on his long run, Micah finally breaking through and getting a sack on the final drive, and obviously the underthrown ball that ended that game via interception.

Won’t be making much of an adjustment to either team here, but I suppose you can make a move on Quentin Johnston if he’s on your fantasy team. They clearly don’t like him/he isn’t getting it. Even with Williams out and Palmer banged up, he not getting looks.

Cowboys 20, Chargers 17: Dallas Bounces Back Again

As bumpy as it was, the Cowboys moved to 10-1 following a loss since 2021.

Betting Recap

Chargers ML had some nice CLV but in the end failed, yesterday’s teaser did stay alive into the weekend though!

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Line Moves

Early Week Action in the Week Seven Markets

‎Deep Dive Gambling Podcast: Deep Dive ep 621 - NFL Week 6 Recap & Week 7 Opening Lines on Apple Podcasts

‎Show Deep Dive Gambling Podcast, Ep Deep Dive ep 621 - NFL Week 6 Recap & Week 7 Opening Lines - Oct 15, 2023

Recap pod is up for the week, we went over every Sunday game and looked at the week seven market. Been some moves already, some make perfect sense and some need a little looking into:

TNF: New Orleans vs Jacksonville

Total 42 to 39 and Saints +1 to -3

Big moves off the news that Trevor Lawrence could be limited and possibly miss Thursday Night with a knee injury he sustained late. C.J. Beathard would be the man who steps in. The Iowa QB hasn’t started a game since week 17 of the 2021 season for the 49ers. It’s tough, and everyone has a system for adjusting, but this is probably worth 3-5 points ATS for the QB change.

I would make this Saints -4.5 if it’s Beathard.

Las Vegas at Chicago

Total 42.5 to 37.5 and Raiders -1 to -3

Another one with huge quarterback uncertainty that sort of went opposite directions for the two teams with Justin Fields being ruled out early due to a thumb injury and Jimmy Garappolo getting good news after leaving the stadium in an ambulance last week.

Buffalo at New England

Total 43.5 to 41

Both teams: “had two nice drives in the 2nd half last week and not much else”. Totals across the board are dropping but this one makes some sense after seeing some poor play against defenses that should have been gettable last week.

After seeing the Raiders get to the red zone six times last week, I’m semi-interested in a Bills Team Total over at a depressed price, they’ve been solid in the red zone. Going to keep an eye on the weather and injury reports.

Detroit at Baltimore

Total 44.5 to 41.5

Unders are getting hit and Detroit hasn’t been as explosive, but I disagree with this a bit since Baltimore’s defense hasn’t been tested yet. Slight move on Baltimore too pushing them from -2.5 to -3. Again, something I disagree with considering the matchup with Goff and a mostly healthy Lions offense.

Miami at Philly

Miami +2.5 to +1

Strongish move on the early week number for the Dolphins (the only good red zone offense) but maybe some anti-Philly sentiment too after a strong defensive game plan put Hurts into bad situations last weekend. Some buyback on the Eagles starting up this morning. This total has dropped a bit off open, down to 51.5.

Awards Odds

Updates in the Season Long Awards Markets

Not a terribly exciting week for movement in the awards markets, so just some quick notes.

MVP

Tua (+330) and Mahomes (+340) are virtual co-favorites with the rest of the pack having sub-optimal weeks even in the wins (looking at you, Josh). Looking down the list, not sure there’s a guy that can jump up too much considering Tua’s torrid pace (which is currently not on pace to break Manning’s record somehow).

No one I’m terribly excited to look at in the longer odds, Burrow or Lamar have the most upside, but the prices are probably where they need to be.

OROY

Stroud (-145) is quietly on pace for like 4500 yards and 25 TDs. There’s just not anything a WR or RB can do if he stays healthy and maintains even 80% of that pace this year. Injuries exist, but it’s hard to place a true probability on that.

If you wanted something to throw some pizza money on, Bryce Young is 75/1 and is getting a change at offensive coordinator when he comes off the bye. ONE good game with Thomas Brown calling plays would catch some hype and Carolina does have a bottom-5 remaining strength of schedule. Grasping at straws here on an 0-6 team, but it won’t take that many good games to get him back into the running.

Panthers' Frank Reich Gives OC Thomas Brown Play-Calling Duties Amid 0-6 Start

As the Carolina Panthers enter the Week 7 bye with a 0-6 record, head coach Frank Reich is making a significant change to the offense. Reich has decided to…

OPOY

If McCaffrey misses time, this one may be all but over. Any bad news on him would have me heading to play some Tyreek +150 well before I thought about making any bets on the Vikings this week. I made a case for him at 20/1 preseason and obviously wish I had taken a much bigger swing.

DPOY

The big three remain the big three until further notice. Other names keep trying to get close, but no one can string together enough big weeks to get under the 10/1 mark. Parsons had a decent game on primetime with a big play moment that helped his cause and he’s again your 2/1 favorite with Watt and Garrett not far behind.

DROY

Interesting since Jalen Carter didn’t even play and still kept a stranglehold on this one. He’s probably just that good. Carter -140, Witherspoon +300 seems pretty fair. Will Anderson 11/1 is interesting, but I think you’d need a long-term injury to Carter to see that one get there.

COY

Barring something crazy, it is still just the two-man race with Campbell leading slightly over McDaniel. Anything can happen, but winning the division for the first time since ever is still such a solid narrative. On paper, Detroit has an easier schedule, but Miami’s isn’t tough by any means.

CBPOY

Damar(-190) was inactive again.

Would a Mahomes MVP voter put Tua (+430) first in this market when they fill out their ballots? Still not interested in investing in this one either way.

What’s on the Docket for Tomorrow?

  • Updated Power Ratings and a new TIERS

  • Remaining Strength of Schedule with an eye on RSW totals

  • and any other news, notes, or thoughts that come across my desk.

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