NFL Offensive Player of the Year 🏈

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Not going to get into 27 different players like I did with offensive rookie of the year last week. This is a dumb award in general due to its overlap with MVP. MVP is going to be an offensive player, so often, this is sort of the Miss Congeniality for guys on that side of the ball.

I think any number of the top QBs can win in a case where two of them have outstanding numbers and voters opt to give one a bump in the OPOY market (that said a player CAN win both awards). Running backs are in a weird spot at this point in NFL history, but there still are a couple who are used enough in the passing game to merit consideration. Wide receivers are getting the most market share here with a half dozen high-end guys that possess the ability and opportunity for 1800+ yards this year.

I highlighted a few I like at the current prices, but by all means, let me know where I’m wrong and who you took this season. I’m on Twitter.

Tyreek Hill +2000

The worry was that he would drop off without Andy and Pat. Turned out he had his best season yet from a statistical standpoint. 170 targets for 119 catches and 1740 yards. This included two concussions for Tua that led to Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson starting 4 games and filling in to finish others. This was also the first season under a new head coach/offensive mind. A healthy Jiu-Jitsu QB and a full season of unleashing Mike McDaniel’s vision upon the league means that Tyreek’s ceiling is flirting with 2000 yards.

Christian McCaffrey +1500

Folks may have some cold feet after Kyle Shannan’s quotes regarding keeping him off the field more, but this stat upside for him is still just so stupidly high. I don’t love a running back to win this award much these days since true three-down backs are becoming a dying breed and teams are more willing to rotate guys through. That said, this is a player who also lined up out wide and in the slot at least once per game each in every game he played as a 49er last year, including a 10 target, 8 catch, 80-yard game vs. Miami. A 1000/1000 season is in the cards and without a viable MVP candidate on the team, it seems like a great way for the voters to finally give the 49ers an offensive award.

Guy even has an arm.

Jalen Hurts +3000

Initially, I was looking at Jalen as a sneaky MVP candidate this year, but Drew did well to convert me to a buyer on him as OPOY.  

3rd in the voting last year for OPOY and 2nd for MVP (a bit misleading with Mahomes taking 48 of the 50 1st place votes), he’s on the precipice of some hardware if the switch at OC doesn’t end up hurting his ability to produce like he did last year: as a passer, a runner, and a drive extender on short yardage. Another year of team success will help, but a jump in the stats (by playing 17 games) is probably what the narrative for this is built around.

While they weren’t the most vital games for the teams’ success (as the Eagles were still the top seed) missing two games late was very painful for his awards campaign last year. I expect him to be in the conversations around awards this holiday season if he stays healthy.

My Power Ratings are never really finished since the whole point is to stay ahead (at least at the same speed) of things via adjustments throughout the season, but I have mine about as tight as their going to get heading into week one and I have a couple of teams I wanted to talk about for a second.

A quick aside for anyone unfamiliar: Power Ratings aren’t Power Rankings. We’re not trying to just list 32 teams in order of best to worst, we’re tying to put a number on them so that we can compare them to another team and make a price to see if you’re finding any value against the number the betting market is putting out there.

Obviously, a lot of the market prices are going to be fairly close to what I have for my teams’ power ratings. If they were all off by a few points, I supposed I’d have to wonder about my methodology a bit. I’ll be updating teams that I upgrade and downgrade throughout the year with some reasoning as we go in early week editions of the newsletter. Today, I wanted to go over a couple that I have the biggest differences with compared to what the betting market as a whole is telling us.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’m a bit higher here and almost certainly will take a swing at them vs Minnesota this Sunday.

I understand the downgrade considering the 8-9 season and the bad playoff loss coupled with losing the starting HOF QB. I just don’t have the fall off quite as hard as the current sentiment.

This can be a top half of the league offensive line, and they have two very legit WRs. If healthy this defense is going to be fine and finish a lot better than last season. On top of it all, and I hate to cape for this coaching staff, reading some of the quotes from Todd Bowles, a guy forgets how late in the offseason cycle he was given the keys to the team. Still not sold on him but willing to give more of a benefit of the doubt with a full offseason, even if he spent it with Baker.

I want to make it clear that I’m not looking at them long-term right now, this is simply where I stand on the team on September 6th when evaluating the week one spread and taking an early peek at week 2. Currently marketing price has this as somewhere between 4 to 5 points worse than an average team in the league and I’m a bit higher than that.

Arizona Cardinals

This one is a bit funny since you’d think there’s only one direction to go with them, but I’m somehow at a point where I don’t think their rating is low enough. Given the current roster, the installation of a new offense, a bottom 5 OL group, a very low-end quarterback, and a bottom-tier defensive roster, I can make a case for them being eight or nine points worse than an average team.

They are already 32 of 32, this is just a lower floor for dead last. Again, like all power ratings, this is “for now” When and if Kyler Murray makes his return to this starting lineup, despite all the shortcomings I’ve listed, they still have an okay-ish group of WRs, and that alone (coupled with the massive jump at QB talent) can bring them quickly to the group of teams that are “below average” rather than the current “home underdogs nearly anyone in the league”

A new coaching staff brings possible variance and I could be wrong about this team, but for now, I’m not going to wait for the downgrades and will be starting this team a couple of points worse than where the market has them.

We’ll go over all this week’s games tonight at 8EST on the YouTube channel (podcast out in the morning for your commuting pleasure). If you don’t mind, it’d be awesome if you could subscribe to the channel and maybe even drop a thumbs-up on the video when you get time.

I’ve always bet a lot of NFL teasers and will continue to do so. 

Every Sunday I’ll outline which games I’m using that week and how many combos I’ll be making. I did want to lay out where I’ll be at with these 99% of the time. Unless there’s some unforseen circumstances that force my hand, I will be only be using “Wong” or “Basic Strategy” teaser legs.

A real quick primer for those who are unfamiliar:

• Since a teaser pays the same price to adjust a line six points, there’s inherent value to do so across key numbers. Without the simple yet boring math, moving from -4 to +2 costs the same as moving from -8 to -2, but the latter is much more valuable.

• So, teasing -7.5, -8, -8.5, +1.5, +2, and +2.5 offer the most value since you cross 3 and 7. Over the past 10 years, these six legs have won at a 77.9% clip (72.4% is the breakeven point at -110).

• There is some thought that games with higher totals can also diminish returns even when following the guidelines outlined above due to the higher variance that comes with more scoring. Generally, 49 is a cutoff you see used, but over the past 10 years, there has been very little difference.

• The price matters a ton. If you can’t find a place that lets you bet 6-point NFL teasers at -120 or better, you’ll have a hard time grinding a profit on these.

• Most of the time this is a Saturday or Sunday bet, as the data proving the profitability uses the closing lines, but there are going to be times where the writing is on the wall and you can get a nice teaser leg with some CLV to boot if you take advantage of an early or lagging line.

• Bonus: Teasing totals is generally a horrible idea, please avoid. I will be.

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