Week Five Bets

A couple of looks for Sunday ahead of a LONG day of football.

First off, the answer is NFL Network or NFL+ if you’re trying to figure out where to watch the early London game. Fubo or YouTubeTV work as well. Remember this. We’ve got London games for the next three weeks running now.

I’ve never seen a prognosis drawn out like this.

Injuries

  • Jonathan Taylor is OUT, and Anthony Richardson is doubtful. It looks like Joe Flacco will be carrying the Colts this week.

  • Maxx Crosby is expected to play this week for Las Vegas

  • RB Brian Robinson is expected to play for Washington despite a knee injury

  • WR Romeo Doubs is out after the team suspended him one game.

  • Jacksonville TE Evan Engram is not looking like he’ll be playing against the Colts today with a hamstring injury.

  • WRs Kendrick Bourne and Odell Beckham Jr. will make the season debuts today for the Pats and Phins, respectively. RB Raheem Mostert will return for Miami as well.

  • In addition to Malik Nabers, the Giants will likely be without starting RB Devin Singletary when they take on the Seahawks.

  • Steelers RB Jaylen Warren is OUT.

  • The Browns’ offensive line woes continue: OT James Hudson heads to the IR with Jack Conklin and Jed Wills still banged up and questionable for Sunday. They are expected to see TE David Njoku make his return today, though.

  • RB Joe Mixon will miss the game for Houston with an ankle injury. Dameon Pierce remains out as well

Weather

There is not a ton going on, with most of the concerns for bad weather drawing back a bit as the week went on. Carolina @ Chicago looks to have some wind, but it may be closer to 10 mph than 20 now and should be less impactful.

Jacksonville and Pittsburgh are also looking at some rain, but neither has a high probability.

Situational

  • Seattle is in the unenviable spot of facing a team with extra rest (The Giants off TNF) while coming off of MNF themselves and having a short week. The Giants DO have a long travel spot, though, heading cross country and playing their third road game in four weeks.

  • Dallas is your other TNF team from last week, taking on the Steelers with 10 days to prepare for Justin Fields, minus their key defenders. This is a 2nd straight road game as well.

  • Miami is also playing on a short week off of an MNF game.

  • Buffalo, Cleveland, and New Orleans are all on the 2nd week of back-to-back road games. All off of losses as well.

On Bye: Tennessee, Detroit, LA Chargers, & Philadelphia

Sunday Bets

Lighter card as I try to get right after a rough week four soured what’s been a pretty solid season. I won’t add it here, but I did end up on Seattle -6.5 and wrote about it in Thursday’s newsletter. I also have a few looks for tomorrow’s game, but will leave that for Monday’s edition.

Chicago -4 -105

I didn’t think I’d be laying points with rookie QBs this early on, but if you look across the board, all three rookie QBs are favored this week at home. While I think Caleb Williams is starting to improve, a lot of this bet is based on the Bears’ defense going up against a Panthers team that has very little to offer on offense right now. If they can take away Dionte Johnson, I’m not sure what plan B is for Andy Dalton. On the other side, if there ever was a spot for Caleb to build on what he’s done so far, it’d be against this Panthers defense, down two more players after last week.

Drew made the case on the podcast: if you are looking at going against Jayden Daniels for OROY, this may be the time to bet on Caleb. The Bears are entering an easy chunk of the schedule.

Cardinals/49ers over 48.5

Fred Warner looks likely to play for the 49ers but is dealing with an ankle injury. On the other side, the Cards are getting Trey McBride back this week. Just a spot where I make both offensive ratings pretty high compared to the defenses they’ll be facing. Pass rate over expectation has been low for both teams, but a lot of that is situationally based and both have been dealing with injuries in their receiver rooms. Fully expect the Cardinals offense to get back on track, which in turn should force the 49ers to keep their foot on the gas.

Indianapolis +3.5

I don’t love clicking this, but even with Jonathan Taylor out and Flacco playing QB again, I can’t find a way to have a high enough rating on Jacksonville right now to get to a field goal, even at home. Now that some 3.5s are popping, I’m going to have to add this to the card. Not only has Flacco come in and done this before, he’ll be playing behind an incredibly strong offensive line, with what I believe to be a much better coach, against a bad/injured defense.

We went over every game on Wednesday evening, time stamps in the video. Including the MNF game, the secret podcast team total bet and anything else we could muster midweek.

What’s on the Docket for Tomorrow?

  • Monday Night Football breakdown including a bet I made

  • Quick thoughts on any Sunday surprises

  • Maybe some First TD scorer Darts???

One Last Thing: do me a favor and forward this email to someone you think may like a little more football in their life.