TNF in the ATL

Bet365 is the official odds provider for the Deep Dive Newsletter.

Market

Lookahead on this total was 43.5 but opened a bit lower, 42.5 for the most part. Bet up during the week before finding some under money at 44, ending up right back where we started at last week.

Mostly Tampa Bay money on the side as this lookahead was Atlanta -3 and reopened at -2.5 Sunday night. Some push back as it approached pick em on Tuesday, with Falcons money taking us back to the -2.

Injuries

Tampa Bay will be down their third and fourth WRs again with Trey Palmer and Jalen McMillan out this week. S Antoine Winfield Jr., OT Luke Goedeke, and DL Calijah Kancey are all out again this week. 

Bucs LB SirVocea Dennis will also miss as he was placed on the IR this week with a shoulder injury.

The Falcons’ list is much shorter but does include an impact player on the defense, with LB Troy Andersen out for tonight’s game. He was a pivotal part of last week’s win. Rookie RB Jase McClellan is questionable with an illness, but he’s less of an impact since he’s not even playing special teams right now.

Matchup

It’s still early (not sure how much longer I’ll get to rely on that as an excuse for not being able to pinpoint exactly how good a team is), but seeing four weeks of the Denver defense has me less worried about the hiccup that was week three for the Tampa Bay offense. As it turns out, Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has been able to get a ton out of the secondary and pass rush up there, most recently evidenced by an absolute stonewalling of the Jets that somehow got Bo Nix a “Quarterback Win” on his record.

Missing the depth at WR isn’t great, but Mike Evans is proving to be very much timeless, and without any decent play at the slot/nickel corner for Atlanta, Chris Godwin should be able to create instant and constant separation as well.

Devil’s Advocate: I don’t have the Tampa Bay defense rated terribly high as currently rostered either. '

I just have the much larger mismatch between Baker and the Atlanta defense. He’s struggled throughout his career against pressure, and this presents another “weakness on weakness” matchup that pits a below-average pass-blocking offensive line and an Atlanta pass rush that ranks 29th in the league so far in Pass Rush Win Rate %. If Atlanta isn’t getting home, the Bucs will move the ball and that’ll put the onus on a Falcons offense that rates in the bottom half of the league for most offensive metrics. Even when they were able to muster some offense last week, penalties, often from the cobbled together offensive line, held them back. 12 points from the offense isn’t a sustainable way to win games.

On the other side, pass rush hasn’t been something I’ve looked at as a strength for the Bucs this year, but they absolutely got after it last week vs the Eagles. The Atlanta offensive line is not only still down a starter, they are getting a less-than-stellar performance so far this year from their best lineman in Chris Lindstrom. He’s been giving up more pressures than they’re used to and now finds himself next to a backup center and a tackle that’s returning from a knee injury.

Betting

I talked about it on the podcast last night already at length, as well as some other content I’ve done this week, but I’ll be on Tampa Bay straight up tonight. This has not been an Atlanta offense that I trust to be able to take advantage of the Tampa Bay defensive injuries at the moment. Hoping we just get the kind of Baker we saw in week one and this isn’t even close.

Bet: Tampa ML +115

• Baltimore/Cincy total is down to 49.5 after some Monday openers up around 51

• Vegas/Denver has been one way to the under as well, just at a much lower range, now sitting at 35.5 after opening 37. Additionally, Denver has been bet our to -3 after opening -1.5 Sunday night.

• Rams money coming in this week, pushing the Packers from -4 to -3

• Some over money in the Seattle/NYG game, pushing up to 44 from an opener of 42. It’ll be interesting to see how Malik Nabers’ status affects this.

• Same story in Cowboys/Steelers, pushing up to as high as 44.5 after opening 42.

• Some back and forth on KC/NO opening at KC -4.5 and being bet out to -6 before being smacked back down to -5 and then seeing more money take it back to the current -5.5

We’ll take a full look at weather forecasts tomorrow, but if you want to get a jump, the games to keep an eye on are in Chicago, Cincy, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and possibly London, England.

Bonus Bet: Again, talked about this on the podcast, but my numbers are quite bullish on the Seattle offense and with the Nabers news trending poorly, I’m grabbing the best Seattle -6.5 I can find with lunch today.