NFL Week Eight Early Line Moves 📊

Kirk tossed a pick on the game's third play and still finished with a pretty amazing day. In the second game without Justin Jefferson, we saw Jordan Addison take a step forward and light up an otherwise great defense for 7/123/2.

In a season marred by horrible turnover luck, it’s still apparent that if the Vikes clean up a few things, they can win some games, maybe even get into the playoffs, and get destroyed in a rematch.

I really thought this was going to be a tough matchup for them and obviously I was a little worried about life after JJ, but if Addison can seamlessly transition to the WR1 role, it’s a team with a solid offensive line, a good TE, and high-end QB play. The offense can keep them in games if this is the level we get each week.

I liked this take and want to rewatch the compressed replay today and see how much this was happening in the 2nd half. I don’t think it’s a “Purdy is solved” thing, but it certainly will be something Shanny has to adjust for if it works.

As is often the case, it comes down to turnovers and 3rd downs. Minnesota looked like they were going to have one of those days with the early pick, but ended up winning the battle 3-1. The SF turnovers were big swings in the win probability considering the field position of the CMC fumble and the time remaining on the final INT.

The playcalling and execution on 3rd down for Minnesota was top-notch. That’s how you play with a lead.

I think Purdy will be fine going forward. He still had a good game by most metrics and will get a home game and then they bye. If Deebo comes out of the off-week healthy, the race for the top seed in the NFC is back on.

Betting Recap: Split the props, somewhat annoyingly with the late first-half TD that Addison ripped away from the defender, dooming the Vikings team total under. At least the Cousins INT was nice and easy. First TD props continue to be a black hole of slowly bleeding.

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A quick run through of some moves in the market early on in the week:

Atlanta/Tennessee Total down to 36.5

There are books hanging as low as 36 in this one. Not getting to see much of Levis in the preseason makes it tough for me to say it should be him, but man the Willis game logs are bad from last year. Vrabel saying now it’ll be both is something. The Falcons are closing in on being a top-10 defense as well.

New Orleans/Indianapolis total up to 43.5, Flipped Favorite

The Saints stink out loud in the Red Zone but can move the ball and may accidently fall over the goal line one of these times. Minshew bounced back last week and remembered he has 2-3 pretty decent offensive weapons. Even with the Saints getting extra time to prep, the market flipped the lookahead line to make the Colts a slight favorite as the total ticks up from 41.5 to 43.5.

New England down to +9.5

The lookahead line was Miami -13 before going off the board Sunday, most places reopened with a -10, but even that is seeing money on a New England team that was able to move the ball against Buffalo last week. The fly in the ointment for the early road dog steam may be Jalen Ramsey’s status.

Houston/Carolina Total up to 43.5

Both teams are off a bye, Carolina with a new play caller heading into the week. I guess there’s some belief in what the Panthers offense can look like with two weeks for Thomas Brown to prep. This is up two points off a 41.5 open.

Chicago/LA Chargers total up to 46.5

Another decent jump up in the total after seeing Tyson Bagent game-manger the shit out of the Raiders game and Justin Herbert make some big-time throws against a good Chiefs defense. I agree with this move, a couple of above-average red zone teams with playmaker WRs.

Minnesota now favored in Green Bay

Still bouncing around a bit, but this has seen a small move across the zero (not a ton of implied win probability shifting, but still worth noting as I think they may keep getting money). The Vikes looked good last night, but I think the Green Bay injuries may be the bigger factor in this one.

We recapped week 7 and dug into the early lines for week 8 on Sunday night, then uploaded it as a tidy little podcast for your listening pleasure.

Bit of a boring week in Awards. Patty is likely the best, no one took a real run at the favorites in any of the other categories and one man even saw his odds greatly improve by staying home all week.

Quick notes on the Big Seven Markets:

MVP

Mahomes and Hurts jumped forward with Pat now favored (+240 at FD) ahead of Tua and the Eagles’ signal caller (both +450). Josh Allen (+650 to +1000) and Brock Purdy (+1000 to +1400) took tumbles after losing road games this week with Lamar hurdling a few names and being listed as the fourth favorite (+700).

No real high-level takes here other than probably talking to anyone who’ll listen out of any long shots in this market. Really just not a big enough chance that all of them fall off enough to be overtaken by someone down the board.

OROY

Stroud didn’t play, and is still -175 here. Puka hanging tough at +230 and Addison supplanted Bijan as your third fav after one had a big night and the other pissed off every Fantasy/SGP player in the world.

I played Bryce Young at 80/1 last week, a number that’s still around if you want to grab a QB with 11 weeks to prove himself against a soft schedule. I can’t think of any other way to bet on the new play-caller and love a long shot.

OPOY

Tyreek (+130) had a big day, but apparently will NOT be getting the bonus of CMC (+250) missing time. Big drop after the two studs with AJ Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, and Stefon Diggs all around 20/1.

DROY

Carter still rules (-150) with Witherspoon hot on his tail (+230). Will Anderson (+750) and Brian Branch (+900) the only other names within spitting distance. Continuing to produce for a good pass rush probably keeps Carter at the top all year. He might just be the class.

DPOY

The top three are still there, with Garrett and Watt having big flash plays to get the bump this week. The three-way stalemate shows no sign of stopping any time soon.

COY

McDaniel and Campbell took tough Ls, which led to my favorite line move in the awards market this week

DeMeco Ryans moved from 10/1 to 6/1 during his bye week.

CBPOY

Damar Hamlin update:

Still a -165 favorite (was -190). Lamar saw the biggest move up, from 14/1 to 10/1.

What’s on the Docket for Tomorrow?

• Updated Power Ratings

• Week 8 Tiers!

• a look at the trade markets

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