🍺Friday Free Bet: Free Prop Bet for Steelers/Jags

The second half had ZERO juice last night…. until it did. 15 more games this week and I’ll have bets on at least eight of them. Friday Injury reports and final designations are just a few hours away, time to make the sausage.

Watching this one back and going through the boxscore, I think I feel bad for the folks that got good numbers on Buffalo here. Most of the luck and high-leverage stuff fell Tampa’s way:

1. Buffalo failed on 4th down and goal

2. The only turnover in the game (Int leading to a TB TD)

3. Multiple penalty calls that converted 4th downs

4. 4th down TD to Evans

5. Tipped ball 2-point conversion

In the end, they did run out of good fortune on what was a pretty damn good-looking Hail Mary ball by Baker Mayfield.

And yeah, not everything went their way, there were a couple of big plays on offense called back for holding, but for the most part, it was a little wild that they were in this game at the end considering how Buffalo had moved the ball for most of the night. I guess you have to give the Bills a bit of the blame for not finishing any drives after the first one out of the half as well though.

The big takeaway was Buffalo’s ability to spread the ball around and the emergence of Khalil Shakir. After losing a couple of tight ends forced them to mix up the formations a bit, it was nice to see him step up and give them a solid third option behind Diggs and Davis. Obviously, Kincaid was great as well, but I suppose that was expected.

The shoulder injury for Josh Allen is concerning, but they do have the 10-day break here between games, so he can likely afford to rest and rehab until Monday.

The Bills’ pass rush had a nice day, getting home quite a bit with just the base rushers. Baker was sacked three times on paper, but just off the top of my head, I can think of at least three more near sacks (knee almost down in the end zone, Von Miller behind the back ankle hold, and the 4th down sack wiped off by the face mask). Boxscore also gives them credit for 10 hits on Baker; he was harassed all night.

Buffalo gets another primetime game next week: Football Night in America, live from Cincinnati. The Bills are 1 point favorites in that one.

The Bucs will head to Houston (currently a +2.5 road dog).

Last week was a bummer for the free props with Gus Edwards bending us over but that was last week, this is now, and we’re back fading another RB:

4for4 prop bettor extraordinaire Connor Allen sent me a message this morning, saying I needed to bet this one:

Najee Harris (PIT) under 41.5 rushing yards -115

“Najee Harris continues to be a plodder averaging less than 4 yards per carry. He has cleared this number in half of his games so far but that has come against the Raiders, Rams, and Texans. He now faces the Jaguars who have been stellar on a play-to-play basis against the run. They are 2nd in early down success rate and are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

Only 3 running backs have cleared 45 rushing yards against the Jaguars and all three are far superior running backs or in better situations than Harris. Also one of them was Alvin Kamara last week who got there on a random 15-yard draw play on a two-minute drill. I'm willing to bank on that not happening here, especially when Najee only has 56% of the carries on this team “

Obviously, follow Connor on Twitter for more NFL betting content, and get in the 4for4 Discord if you want to see everything he’s betting each week.

Need More Free Props, for Free?

Connor, Noonan, and Slop will be on at 3 PM EST giving out another half dozen or so!

Buffalo kind of harshed the vibe last weekend with that final drive killing some really nice teasers.

Unfortunately, I got scared of Tyrod and moved Buffalo up to the official Sunday teaser, breaking a nice little streak. The underdogs teased up out past a TD continue to crush this year though (checked and it’s over 80%).

Last week:

Sitting on half a winner from last night’s TNF, but will still look to add one to the Newsletter card on Sunday morning.

Week 3 Teaser Rankings (Best to Worst)

I’ll check back in on Sunday morning with the bets for the week. Enjoy your Friday, and maybe watch some baseball.