The podcast for the week is recorded and up anywhere you find that sort of thing. Surprisingly had stronger feelings about more games than I thought I would, and as it seems we keep finding: there are likely another half dozen teaser legs this week. I’ll rank how I feel about them tomorrow.

Market

The Sunday Opener was -8 and saw some early Bucs money that quickly got obliterated the other way, out to -8.5 Monday -9 on Wednesday, and depending on where you shop, continues to push its way toward 10, with -9.5 showing at a lot of shops.

The lookahead total was 42, and it opened similarly, with Wednesday and Thursday over money coming to push this up to the current 43.5

Injuries

I guess there was some concern about Baker Mayfield missing the game, but multiple sources have now confirmed that he’s going to go. We’ll have to see if the knee injury causes him any issues with his mobility. Seems as if WR Chris Godwin is a full go as well.

A few other names on the Tampa report: starting LG Matt Feiler (knee) will miss as well as S Kaevon Merriweather. Vita Vea’s fate will be decided in pre-game warmups.

The Bills’ injury report is mostly tight ends with Dawson Knox and Quintin Morris ruled out. DE Ed Oliver is questionable with a toe injury. LB Baylon Spector is also ruled out, but he’s been strictly a special teams contributor.

Matchup

Over the past three games, the Bills have scored 10 TOTAL points before halftime. Just a single TD in London vs the Jags, nothing at home vs the Giants, and a lonely FG last week in Foxboro.

This was a team that finished last year THIRD in 1st half scoring with over 15 points, only behind the Eagles and Chiefs.

While I’m apprehensive about the Bills’ defense after the injuries to White, Jones, and Milano, maybe I should be more concerned about what Josh Allen is doing right now.

The good news, the Bucs defense has been pretty fortunate on turnovers and may not be as good as they look on paper. If you take out plays with turnovers, they drop from 10th to 24th in the league in defensive EPA/Play. Still some big names here, but maybe due for regression if the turnover luck starts to fade.

Betting

I just shit-talked both defenses, and I still don’t think I can sell myself on an over in this one with both QBs not at 100% (Baker - knee, Allen - swag).

Though we did see an outburst of scoring last Thursday, short-week game plans can sometimes be a bit vanilla.

I don’t have a lot I like here. I’ll be tailing the entire internet on the Dalton Kincaid overs for a few bucks, but I’m not sure on which TB WR to back or fade and can’t get a good grasp on the Buffalo game plan, so I’ll just be adding a late teaser after the steam here.

This one gets lost a little bit in the shuffle on Wong teasers, I should probably do some sort of companion piece to reference, but there are “basic strategy” teasers at the 6.5 and 7-point teaser level. It’s the same principle: cross the seven, cross the three, try not to pay too much.

Teasing the -9 down to -2.5 and the +1 up to +6.5 at -120 is a profitable strategy, it’s just not something that often is afforded to you during a week of games.

The 7-point teaser is even rarer since it’s really only good on -9.5 (Books won’t ever make a team +0.5, this isn’t soccer). Traditionally priced at -130 (still available in some places) don’t get too weird with it if where you wager is going to rake you over the coals, I wouldn’t recommend this past -140. Even at -130, this has been less profitable than the others. I use this sparingly and only in spots where I show value on the side either way. Obviously love the Ravens this week and can surely be sold on the Bills’ offense to bounce back from whatever has been ailing them at home here.

7-Point Teaser: Bills -2.5/Ravens -2.5 -130

Early Week Eight Bets

Full on skipping First TD Scorers today, just wanted to touch on a couple of totals I’ve played this week:

Carolina/Houston over 43.5

A lot of eggs in the Thomas Brown basket here, but I do think this offense should improve if ANY of the things we see from what has made the Rams offense tick over the last few years. If this leads to more open receivers for the rookie QB, this is a game they can maybe even win. With a bit of a banged-up defense for Carolina and both teams coming off the bye, this could be a bit of a back-and-forth.

Chicago/LA Chargers over 46.5

Putting some trust in the Bears and Bagent again here, but they looked like an efficient offense that took what the Raiders were going to give them last week. They are still low on RBs, but this hasn’t been a team you want to run a ton against anyway, both defenses have gotten shredded through the air this year. Despite some pieces returning for the Bears’ secondary, it’s still a defense that gives up explosive plays at a high rate versus a team that puts them up a bunch. Like a big Herbert game as well.

Dallas/LA Rams under 45

Despite the injuries I like for matchup of the Dallas pass rush here and expect the Rams to be stifled a bit in the passing game. I also have downgraded the Dallas offense a bit as the Mike McCarthy experience has gone on and have them as problematic red zone squads (Dallas for their low conversion rate, LA for their lack of appearances in it).

Injury News for the Road

Lots more info to come out this afternoon, but a few that came across so far this morning:

• WR Curtis Samuel is practicing for the Commanders

• Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert were back at practice today in Miami

• Robert Woods will miss this weekend’s game for the Texans

• David Montgomery DNP for Detroit

• Defenders Preston Smith and Jaire Alexander missed practice today for the Packers

• Daniel Jones: same as the last 5 updates, no contact yet