🏈Week 8 NFL Best Bets: Sides, Totals, Moneylines and Props

It’s finally Sunday and despite the distinct lack of an early European game, it’s still a loaded slate with some impactful divisional matchups all day long. Bears/Chargers isn’t exactly the SNF capstone we all wanted, but don’t act like you won’t watch it.

It Snowed

There was some weather in Colorado this weekend, but I don’t think anyone should freak out over the conditions in Denver for the Chiefs game. Most if not all of the precip will be done by game time and the heavy stuff has come and gone. The field should be mostly clean and the winds don’t appear to be a factor.

The only games that really look like they have a shot at bad weather may be the Jets/Giants in the Meadowlands and the Pittsburgh game with some rain forecasted.

While there is some wind expected for Miami, don’t let someone talk you into it mattering. Hard Rock Stadium is fairly enclosed. The sun hitting the visitor sideline all afternoon is the real impact down in South Beach.

Injury Rundown

Lot more to be revealed closer to game time, but the high notes for now:

• Purdy cleared all the concussion protocol steps and we are spared a Darnold game

• Jimmy G is back and will play Monday versus Detroit

• Still no good news for Daniel Jones or Deshaun Watson, both are out until further notice.

• David Montgomery will miss MNF for the Lions

• Zach Moss looks like he’s good to go for the Colts

• Tyler Lockett is expected to play for Seattle despite the questionable tag

• Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu are projected to play for the Panthers defense

• WR Josh Palmer and Gerald Everett are game-time decisions for the Chargers

• Commanders WR Custis Samuel is a GTD

• Miami: Mostert is a go, but the defense may be missing both S Jevon Holland and CB Xavien Howard. Holland is ruled out already and Howard is trending that way. Jalen Ramsey will make his season debut.

• Kyler Murray not active, as expected. He’ll make his debut soon, but just not today.

All the bets I’ve got queued up (that are still within a reasonable price):

Vikings -1

Hate buying this team when it may be near the top of the market, but I think we might have a little ways to go before we find the bottom of the Packers pricing. The defensive injuries for Green Bay matter with a Minny offense finding it’s footing against a much better defense last week. The issues will remain for the Vikings’ defense (just not having enough good players), but the scheme adjustments by Flores were admirable and paid dividends. Laying points on the road in division isn’t fun, but I think the Vikings will have more luck moving the ball in this one.

Eagles 1H -3.5

Again back to the well on the Eagles, but in the 1st half. It worked in the Jets game (hard to cover as the favorite when you lose), and again even in a game state where they are leading and win, I don’t love how they often handle the 2nd halves of games. I’m well aware of how things went down in the 1st meeting between these two teams, but I’m more than happy to back the much better pass rush versus a kid who can’t seem to go 5 dropbacks without getting sacked. Both secondaries have seen their weaknesses exposed at times, hopefully, we can get AJ and Devonta moving early and often against the rookie and company.

Dallas/LA under 45

Chicago/LA over 46.5

Houston/Carolina over 43.5

I went over all three of these totals on Thursday, you can read about ‘em here.

Teaser: Colts +8 / Steelers +8

I do have a small position on the Saints +1.5 from early in the week, but they are a bit like the Falcons: I’m not going to be jazzed to be laying points with them, especially on the road. The Minshew experience can be a little disorienting, but the Saints are built to play in close, low-scoring games.

The Steelers also check similar boxes. Tomlin voodoo aside, this is still a very good defensive front. The Jags O-Line had a nice day versus the Saints, but still are a below-average unit and should have their hands full today. We’ll see how Trevor looks when he’s actually got a little pressure in his face.

One Dumb SGP for the Road

D.J. Moore over 5.5 receptions/Keenan Allen over 7.5 receptions +310

I think the game plan is similar again this week for Bagent and the Bears, getting a lot of short balls off and into their playmaker’s hands.

I don’t care if Palmer is in or out, Keenan still should get 12 targets versus this secondary.

Went over every game on Wednesday evening like we always do. Time Stamps are more important than ever with the lack of bye weeks for anyone. This show came in around 2 damn hours. The podcast is available for anyone who wants to listen instead.

it’s game day, which means some defensive props in the 4for4 Discord from our local tackles expert, Ryan Noonan. He sent over a free one for the newsletter, since he’s just that sort of guy:

Josh Metellus Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists -115

“The Vikings used three safeties as much as any team in the league, with Metellus used as a hybrid LB/big slot defender.

He's topped this mark every game this season, and it's a great spot for assists. Road teams in GB were a good spot for assists last year at a 48.4% assist rate (5.5% above league average), and it's been 51.8% so far this season.

I have Metellus projected for 5.73 in this spot.”