📊NFL Week 16 Early Line Moves

After a long weekend of travel, I was extremely tired and had a plan in my head to just go to bed after halftime and watch the shortened version on NFL+ in the morning. But, I needed a single catch from JSN to cash the prop from yesterday’s newsletter and I knew I would just lay there checking my phone anyway, so we persevered and ended up watching a pretty entertaining 4th quarter.

I did finally get that catch, it took a bit… and for anyone doubting just how beatable the Eagles’ defense can be, I present a 92-yard game-winning drive by Drew Lock. Still though to their credit, the Eagles only gave up 20 points on the road, the two late interceptions were massive. I understand the need for chunk yardage with the amount of time left on the final drive, but 15 yards likely gets them close enough to tie it up. Hell, you had multiple timeouts left, you can still work the middle of the field with Goedert there!

The first deep ball that ended up in Julian Love’s arms was much more galling. Working with a lead with under 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter on a night where you were averaging 4.7 yards per carry. A decision to launch a deep ball to your 4th or 5th best receiving option into that coverage makes a guy wonder how much Robitussin Jalen Hurts chugged at halftime. Call me old-fashioned, but I would have liked to see six more minutes come off the clock by repeatedly handing the rock to Swift and Gainwell.

Just so it’s not said that I’m salty (I’m holding a ticket for the Seahawks to miss the playoffs), good for Drew Lock. He wasn’t perfect on that final drive, far from it, but he did make some nice throws along the way and trusted DK Metcalf to do his part as well.

Playoff Updates

Unless I have it wrong if the Eagles and Cowboys were to both win out, they would be tied on the first four tiebreakers (H2H, Division games, Common Opponents, conference record) and would go to “strength of victory” for the NFC East crown. Despite a weaker final three games, I think Philly would still have the advantage there.

Seattle is still currently OUT of the playoffs at the moment, but with a final three games of TEN, PIT, and ARI, can make their way in if Minnesota or the Rams stumble. Going 0-2 vs the Rams may be a problem though. I’ll sort out my projections tomorrow after I finish up power ratings and run a final sim for the week.

Cincy Reopens as a Road Favorite

After a nice showing against a Vikings defense that had been playing at a high level and a Steelers loss, we saw an opener of Cincy -2 on the road after this was a PK all last week on the look ahead. The fact that it has only gotten out to -2.5 on the news of Mason Rudolph being named starter says a lot about how Trubisky was playing.

Even Easton Stick isn’t THAT Bad

I know that the Chargers looked like garbage last week, but getting 14.5 points at home with 10 days to prep was probably a little bit of an overreaction. This has been slammed in the early week and is down to LAC +11.

Houston and the Over

Not a big move, but the Texans are pushing toward -3 after a -1.5 open with some action on the over as well up to 43. C.J. Stroud assumed back for Sunday?

Jets/Commanders UNDER

Down a couple of points from a 39.5 open. It’s way too early to be looking at the weather (I did anyway and it looks cold and rainy), but after seeing these offenses last week this checks out. Washington did get some garbage time points, but if they are not willing to start Brissett over Howell, I think this move is correct.

Movement toward Tampa, but still circled

Lower limits on this at most places with the uncertainty surrounding Trevor Lawrence, and obviously a bit of action on the other side, seeing this out to Tampa Bay -1 after the look-ahead was +3. I would expect it to move closer to Tampa -3 if C.J. Beathard is announced as the JAX starter.

Pats/Broncos Under

As is tradition this year: Patriots unders. Down to 34 off a 36.5 opener. Both teams scored 17 last week against defenses that had been giving up over 20 per game over the last few weeks.

NFC North

Lions scare is over I would think, defense still stinks but have three very winnable games and can still push for the #2 seed with the losses by Dallas and Philly. Green Bay and Minnesota losing hurt the wild card chances, but it’s still such a mess of mediocrity that they certainly aren’t dead. The Bears should have gotten a win against a great defense last week, I think loss that was the nail in the coffin for the coaching staff.

NFC South

Tampa Bay continues to be sneaky good, but we can pump the brakes a bit considering how back the GB defense can be. They need to get healthy on defense to really become a pesky wildcard team. The Falcons announced the end of the 2023 season by way of starting Heinicke again the week after the embarrassing loss; Art Smith may need to update his resume. The Saints got a win against a bad team and are somehow damn close to a wildcard spot despite it all. Happy for the Panthers, it’s not like they have the top pick anyway.

NFC East

Dallas and Philly obviously have some stuff to fix if they want to compete with the fightin’ Shannys, both need to focus on winning the division and avoiding a road game in Tampa. The Giants have fallen back to earth and the biggest news this week for them is a kerfuffle surrounding Tommy DeVito's appearance at a Pizzaria (we need a name for this situation, but I feel like Pizzagate is taken). In Washington, Ron Rivera is just running out the clock, I personally hope we get more Brissett.

NFC West

Division is clinched, 49ers’ defense might not be elite anymore, but the offense more than makes up for it. The Rams and Seahawks are very much in the mix for the wildcard spots after nice wins. The Cardinals have to be happy with the results: a nice offensive output versus a tough team while still losing and maintaining a high draft pick.

AFC North

Ravens are far from perfect, but clinched their spot in the postseason and maintained a two-game lead over Cleveland. Two tough tests (@SF, MIA) coming up. Cincy and Cleveland with gritty wins to stay in the mix, currently in the fifth and sixth seeds. Guess we’re getting Flacco and Browning games on wild card weekend. The Steelers remaining schedule is all teams that are currently in the playoffs or tied for a spot.

AFC South

The Jags without Trevor are in big danger of losing this division and really should have been in that game versus Baltimore last week. Houston lucked out late and can absolutely win this division if they get their rookie QB back in time for a tough Browns defense. I don’t think the Colts are any good, but they have the Falcons and Raiders over the next two weeks and could be in a winner-take-all game vs Houston in week 18. Tennessee lost to Case Keenum, they can probably start thinking about who’s starting at QB in ‘24.

AFC East

Buffalo is alive again! I want to give Joe Brady some credit for the rush-centric game plan last week. They will be double-digit favorites the next two weeks before heading to Miami in week 18. Miami dropping games against the Cowboys and Ravens in the next two weeks would set up an amazing final game here. The Jets are eliminated, which hopefully puts the Aaron Rodgers stuff to bed. I’m not sure what the Pats plan is for the rest of the season if Bill is truly on his way out. They played hard vs KC but just don’t have the offense to hang with anyone right now.

AFC West

Two Hall of Fame head coaches and two interims. I think the Chiefs can still get the #2 seed as they have a much easier schedule than the Dolphins. Still not a team that scares me like they did in previous seasons. The Broncos’ loss was tough on the playoff chances, but they will be favored in all three games down the stretch and could step in if the Bengals or Colts slip up. The Raiders and Chargers 63-21 game feels like it happened weeks ago, I’m much more excited to speculate on their possible coaching hires than look at their week 16 matchups as double-digit dogs.

Finally, just because I mentioned it a couple times, here’s my list of coaches that I think join Reich, McDaniels, and Staley and are shitcanned after the season:

Matt Eberflus, Bears

Ron Rivera, Commanders

Arthur Smith, Falcons

Dennis Allen, Saints

Bill Belichick, New England 😢

Honorable Mention (I’m on the fence here): Robert Salah, Jets

Disagree? You know where to find me.