MNF Betting: One Prop I Like in Eagles-Seahawks

Four playoff berths have been clinched: Dallas, Philly, Baltimore, and San Francisco are locked into the postseason. The 49ers have also clinched the NFC West division crown.

On top of the loss, the Jags got more bad news with Trevor Lawrence now in the concussion protocol.

Not great timing with a three-way tie atop the AFC South. I’ll have to look at these a little later in the week once I have all my numbers updated. If Lawrence is good to go, I’d still have the Jags as a bigger favorite than currently listed but with the concussion statuses of both him and C.J. Stroud up in the air, this is a bit of a mess.

Remaining Schedules:

Jacksonville: @TB, CAR, @TEN

Indianapolis: @ATL, LV, HOU

Houston: CLE, TEN, @IND

Some fun overlap with the other division race that’s going to come down to it:

I won’t be making any wagers in either market currently, but I was looking at some bigger picture stuff for playoffs, in particular the wildcards, and I think I’d be betting Tampa Bay to win the NFC at 50/1 long before I was thinking about Dallas at +475 in the same market.

Market

Slight movement towards the home team on the side here. This opened as high as +4 and was down to a flat +2.5 for a stretch yesterday. The injury concerns around both QBs have had this one in a bit of flux but for now, we’re sitting back in the -3.5 range with Hurts looking more likely than Geno.

The total has been one-way action since yesterday. After seeing an initial small move up to 48, Sunday money has it down to 45

Injuries

So the big ones are the QBs.

Rap and Schefty are in agreement in this one for the most part. Jalen flew to Seattle separately from the team and both NFL insiders are saying he should play, even if he’s not feeling 100%

Geno Smith’s status on the other hand sounds much murkier. Rapoport called him a “long shot” to play with his groin injury.

As far as the rest go:

The Eagles ruled out CB Darius Slay, G Cam Jurgens, and LB Zach Cunningham. Slay should be back yet this season after having a quick knee surgery. Sua Opeta will be getting the start at right guard with Jurgens out.

For the Seahawks: Devon Witherspoon hasn’t been ruled out yet, but he did not practice at all this week with his hip injury. S Jamal Adams and LB Nick Bellore are also listed as questionable for knee injuries that kept them out of practice all week.

Matchup

Let’s assume it’s going to be Drew Lock for the purposes of this breakdown.

Say what you will about him, he will have a bit of a mismatch with his weapons in the passing game that he may be able to exploit. With Darius Slay out, the Philadelphia secondary that’s already struggling gets younger, less experienced, and most likely, worse. This game will feature the 27th-ranked 3rd down Seattle offense against the 32nd-ranked 3rd down defense. Seattle has been scuffling lately, but to be fair, the schedule has been very tough. I can see them moving the ball at home if they can avoid early down sacks and stay out of 3rd and long situations that would force Lock to have to do more than he’s probably capable of.

A wrinkle: the Eagles have essentially switched defensive coordinators this week. I think the performance so far this year may merit a move, but switching horses mid-race can sometimes just create new problems. I’d say “We’ll see” but, with the secondary being in the shape it’s in, it may be hard to tell if it’s making a difference either way.

What I’ll be watching for: Will the Eagles have to baby Hurts?

With the illness, I’m wondering if there will be fewer designed runs for the QB and possibly fewer long-developing plays down the field that would require him to sit in the pocket and avoid the rush for longer periods of time. I’m just spitballing here and have no idea what the game plan will be, just something to watch for and maybe look at the live markets with. He has averaged fewer yards on the ground this season but still is getting close to 10 carries per game.

🌧Weather: It will almost certainly be raining during the game. Additionally, the rain is supposed to start hours before the kick, so the field could be fairly soggy by the time we get going tonight.

Betting

Not a ton of feel in this one but I did like one small prop on the Seattle side. Lock targeted Jaxon Smith-Njigba more than anyone last week. In fact, JSN has led the team in targets two weeks in a row. Better yet, his receptions prop total is 3.5 compared to the 4.5 for Lockett and Metcalf.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 3.5 receptions -120