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🍺Friday Free Bet: Prop Bet for NFL Sunday
Plus the weekly look at teasers and a weather/injury whiparound
Andy Molitor
December 08, 2023
Losing to a two-win team this late in the season stings. Doing it two weeks in a row hurts bad though. The real winner here? Probably the Bears; it may take a miracle for the Panthers to catch anyone now that the Cards and Pats have three wins.
from tankathon.com
But, on to the positives: Bailey Zappe seemed to have a little more confidence even with the condensed time to prep. He had a few wild throws and a tipped pass was picked off in the second half, but for the most part, he looked like someone who at least belonged in the pocket, running an NFL offense.
Zeke wasn’t exactly killing it on the ground, but they stuck with him and he ended up with 140 damn scrimmage yards. He was a big part of the short passing game and also cashed every bet I placed on him in yesterday’s newsletter.
The Patriots ran 55 plays, 30 of them were handoffs or targets for Elliot. He was over 50% of the offensive game plan in a game played in 2023. Crazy.
As for the Steelers, this is another big hit to their playoff chances. I find it hard to put the blame solely on Trubisky, it’s not as if the QB play they’ve gotten out of Pickett has been markedly better this season. In the end, the Steelers are a very flawed offense that got some early wins on the back of a very opportunistic defense.
I think we can also safely say that the move on from Matt Canada, while warranted, hasn’t improved the team’s offensive game plan at all. The decision-making all around was odd and the execution was obviously spotty. From the 4th and 2 play call to the use of George Pickens, a lot of the scheme didn’t really make sense for a team that is fighting for a playoff spot.
George Pickens' average route depth across 6 targets was 3.4 yards past the LOS compared to 16.1 on non-targets, the largest difference among any receiver with 5+ targets in a game this season (12.7).
Every one of Pickens’ targets were under 10 air yards.
#NEvsPIT | #HereWeGo
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats)
4:27 AM • Dec 8, 2023
Betting Recap:
Finally, everything came up roses: Zeke over receptions, attempts, receiving yardage…. hell even the first TD came through. On top of it, Drew convinced me to snag some Steelers -4.5 for the second half. Starting the week with a winning Thursday really does change your outlook on life.
As a celebration of a fun game, Connor has a free prop play for the weekend, and he’s looking to take advantage of this East Coast weather system this week: