Pats vs Steelers: Preview and Best Bets

A bad football game is like a real ugly dog or a terrible pizza. I’d rather be petting the dog with half an ear and eating the frozen pizza with weird pepperoni cubes than not. The same goes for the Pats/Steelers game tonight.

I’ll be begging for a trash matchup like this in mid-February while I’m spending my time hunting down the 40 times of 20-year-olds ahead of the combine.

Market

This opened Pittsburgh -6.5 and saw a little bit of Pats money on Tuesday at a few places pushing this to -5. It moved right back to -6, so someone either disagreed strongly or it was some sort of nudging down of the price in order to slam the Steelers.

Some game-day action on New England has this down to the current -5.5 across the board.

The total was sitting already getting bet down last week with the lookahead price as low as 34.5 off the 35.5 open.

Of course, after the Pickett injury and the extreme no-show from Zappe, that actual Sunday opener was even lower at 33.5. Under money has still come in taking it down to as low as 29.5 before finally meeting some resistance and settling on 30.

Injuries

Not great for the Pats’ offense with RB Rhamondre Stevenson and WRs Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte ruled out. Stevenson was a big part of any success they were able to find, but Douglas was starting to become relied on as well before his injury, averaging eight targets per game over the final four he played in.

Backup CB Shaun Wade was also ruled out.

Questionable tags were given to WRs DeVante Parker & JuJu Smith-Schuster, OT Trent Brown, and DT Christian Barmore.

The Steelers ruled out Kenny Pickett officially, as he’s had his ankle surgery. Depth CB James Pierre is also out with a shoulder injury.

Questionable will be RB Najee Harris, G Isaac Seumalo, C Mason Cole, and LB Elandon Roberts. Najee Harris and Seumalo did not practice on Wednesday, but it sounds like Harris will be trying to give it a go. Cole and Roberts were limited participants in yesterday’s practice.

Matchup

We still need to answer the questions regarding the post-Matt Canada offense for the Steelers and for now, I’m still very hesitant to say that things are improving.

After watching more of the Bengals’ defense (32nd in the league in defensive success rate over the past five weeks), the less inclined I am to get excited about “that one time we got 400 yards.” They looked lifeless again on offense at times last week and will now have to go at it with a backup QB and a banged-up RB1.

If anything has been a positive for the Patriots, it’s been the defense, especially against the run of late. In the last four games, opponents are achieving under a 30% success rate on the ground versus the Pats front. So, while Jaylen Warren has been a very nice complimentary piece to Harris, it’ll be interesting to see how he does if forced into the lead role against a good defense. This all could lead to a spot where the Steelers are relying on Mitchell Trubisky to carry them.

Mitch is quoted as saying "We're trying to score points, I'm going to be aggressive.” before also mentioning that they need to take care of the ball, so it’ll be interesting to see what the new brain trust comes up with for an offensive game plan in this one.

On the other side of the ball, more than one media outlet noticed and commented on the Chargers’ defensive game plan from last week: playing press and bringing guys up into the box, daring Zappe to try to beat them with deep passes. Spoiler: he didn’t. The Steelers have been a little susceptible over the middle and against shorter passes, which is solved by moving the safeties up I suppose. We’ll see what they roll out with against the Zappe-led offense.

Communication: If Elandon Roberts doesn’t go, it will mean the Steelers will be switching up who they send plays to on both sides of the ball. It’s probably minor since the men taking over would be vets Mitchell Trubisky and likely Minkah Fitzpatrick, but it’s still another hitch in the all-important communication from the coaches to the players. Maybe something to watch for if the Patriots’ offense begins to work with any tempo: any delays or issues in getting the defense set, ready, and prepared could help a stagnant offense get started.

I brought this point up to my podcasting partner, Drew and he raised another interesting point. If all this comes to fruition and noted “tactical genius” Bill Belichick isn’t trying to take advantage, it will speak volumes to if he’s actually trying to win games at this point in the season.

Betting