The long Christmas break stretch starts today, even I’ll be mailing it a bit tomorrow and mostly just working on research for the Saturday games in my joggers and slippers. Not exactly a banger tonight to start week 16, but it’s still two teams that have very realistic chances to make the NFC playoffs.

Market 

There was some light early week Rams steam taking this out to -5 on the lower limit openers Sunday night, but this had fallen into the -3.5/4 range already by Monday. The Olave news likely helped keep this down, but even so, this was bet back up from -3.5 to -4 yesterday.

The total has ticked up a couple of points off the opening price of 44 and is currently looking like it could go higher on gameday with some of the 46s being priced with some extra juice to the over.

Injuries

Very short injury report for the Los Angeles Rams: OT Joe Noteboom is questionable and CB Tre Tomlinson is out. The rookie DB is mostly a special teams player and Noteboom likely won’t be called into action with Rob Havenstein healthy and starting. So, pretty close to full health for L.A.

Tutu Atwell cleared the concussion protocol after missing last week’s contest and will play tonight.

The Saints’ biggest news was WR Chris Olave practicing this week and ruled healthy enough to play tonight. RT Ryan Ramczyk hurt his knee last week vs the Giants and has been ruled out for tonight.

Rotational Edge rusher Isaiah Foskey, FS Lonnie Johnson, and DE Payton Turner have also been ruled out. Backup RB Kendre Miller is questionable, but reports this morning are saying he’s likely to go.

Matchup

The big question to answer tonight is “Are the Saints a good defense?”

I was a believer early on and the full-season defensive EPA/play numbers would indicate so, but it definitely has seen a downswing as the season has gone on, especially after the loss of CB Marshon Lattimore. Currently listed as the 12th-best defense by DVOA and even lower in my numbers. I have them around an average team on both sides of the ball and rate them so (check out yesterday’s power rating updates).

Last week aside, the Saints have been pretty soft against the run, seeing teams put up some decent numbers with some big plays mixed in. Since week 10 (the last five games for New Orleans) they’ve faced the Panthers, Vikings, Falcons, Lions, and Giants. I have all but the Lions rated as bottom 10 offenses currently and during that subset of weeks. If you don’t recall that game, go Google “Sam LaPorta has career day".

Meanwhile, the Rams have been a top-five offense over the past month and change, and looking back at the arc of the season, I really don’t think Cooper Kupp was 100% for a good stretch even after coming back. After back-to-back big games versus the Ravens and Commanders, I think we might be back to full-strength offensive power for Stafford and company. Not to mention Kyren Williams against a defense that’s very gettable on the ground.

On the other side of the ball, it appears we have a middle-of-the-pack offense versus a middle-of-the-pack defense. Olave being back is massive, but it’s still not the explosive team we thought we might get with Thomas, Kamara, Olave, and Hill. To their credit, they’ve been able to move against lower-end defenses, putting up 28 in each of the last two games versus the Panthers and Lions.

Derek Carr wasn’t asked to do a ton last week, but I think I believe that he can against the Rams on the road here. The Saints have been one of the fastest-paced teams in neutral game states this year. My main concern for the Saints offense, as always, is the red zone. The Rams have been above average at holding teams inside the 20 and the Saints have had their struggles.

Betting

I’m going to snatch up this over at 46 this morning.

Like I said, I’m not a big believer in the Saints’ defense against a strong passing attack and think enough of the New Orleans offense to keep pace. Prediction: Rams 27 - Saints 24

Saints/Rams over 46 -113

A few shots for small stakes on the first TD tonight, all that I ask is that it’s something that happens in the first few minutes or so. In the end, Kyren and Kamara have such a big piece of this pie that I’m happy to take some of the tight ends and nice prices.

Cooper Kupp +900

Taysom Hill +1400

Tyler Higbee +1700

Foster Moreau +5000

Week 16 Weather First Look ⛈

There are a few games worth monitoring this week, but nothing catastrophic unless the storm in Denver gets really weird Sunday night.

Saturday: Cincy @ Pittsburgh - Not much for winds but a fair chance of rain during the game.

Dallas @ Miami - Windy again, not as bad as last week. Remember that even if this forecast gets worse, it’s a stadium that doesn’t see the winds affect the game very much due to the stupid awning things.

SNF: New England @ Denver: Chance of Snow is real here. The effect it will have will depend on the timing. If it’s pre-game, it’ll be cleaned up and gone, but if it falls during the action Sunday night, we could have a SnOver in Denver.

Christmas: Las Vegas @ Kansas City: Good chance of rain, but this is still a ways out.

Survivor League Down to Two

Our Survivor League winner may be declared this weekend! Two final entrants and a trip to the Super Bowl on the line:

Before You Go

Are you from Vermont? Chances are the answer is no, but statistically speaking there should be roughly 100 folks from the Green Mountain State that read this newsletter.

Legalized Sports betting is coming in roughly three weeks, but you can still pre-register now and take advantage of some bonuses the books are giving for early sign-ups. Please don’t say I never did anything nice for you.

Lastly, I hate the Pro Bowl and the Chargers are in the toilet as a franchise right now, but dammit their social media crushes, every single time.