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Too much to do today to dally, so let’s jump right into the injuries that will matter and that need some eyes on them as we progress through the next three days of practice reports:

• C.J. Stroud’s concussion symptoms are apparently worsening, he’s “likely out”

• Trevor Lawrence in the protocol

• Zach Wilson is in the concussion protocol as well, it might be Trevor Siemian out there Sunday

• Saints WR Chris Olave got a limited practice in on Tuesday! He’s “expected to play”

• No practice for Ja’Marr Chase on Tuesday, he’s reported as OUT this week.

• Keenan Allen did not practice on Tuesday; I’m wondering if they won’t just shut him down for the season.

• Aaron Rodgers lied to us, he wasn’t coming back. Good for Pat McAfee I suppose… you can’t take back the attention and clicks from September.

• Both starting safeties (Minkah Fitzpatrick & Trenton Thompson) missed practice Tuesday for the Steelers. DT Cam Heyward is also in the concussion protocol.

• Kenny Pickett was a limited participant in practice but it sounds like his high-end could be dressing as depth and it will be Mason Rudolph (shown below) starting at QB.

• There is a long list of Bills players on both sides of the ball to keep an eye on, Dalton Kincaid, Micah Hyde, and A.J. Epenesa for sure.

• Will Levis suffered a leg injury late in last week’s loss. He downplayed it, but we’ll see what practice reports bring.

• Zach Moss and Jonathan Taylor both have a chance to play for the Colts is sounds like

• Colts WR Michael Pittman may miss this week after the hard hit that knocked him out last week has put him in concussion protocol

• Hollywood Brown was active last week for the Cardinals but exited again during the game with his lingering heel injury

• I don’t have a good update on Pats TE Hunter Henry and his knee injury yet.

• Packers offensive weapons: Watson, Dillon, & Reed

• Tyreek Hill!

Theme for the last month: It’s been fairly easy to rate the top seven teams and then damn near impossible to sort out the next 15-20.

I have a nice-sized gap between the 49ers and the next tier as well as a smaller, but noticeable gap between the next two tiers.

The toughest part was figuring out where to put the cut-offs for the next three. Every team below Philly is capable of losing at home to nearly every other team they are grouped with.

I did have a few adjustments this week that deserve a few words, but I’ll keep it brief. It’s funny that the four teams played each other, but for the most part they were the two most impactful games to my numbers that didn’t involve injuries or QB changes:

Buffalo 📈

Not just the nice win, but the fact that we may see the defense start to get a bit healthier. Also, a hat tip to new OC Joe Brady who seemed to get the assignment: Dallas could not stop the run, so he stuck with it instead of trying to be a balanced offense for no reason other than it’s a thing people say.

Green Bay 📉

Not only a terrible showing from the defense at home, but the quotes after the game make it seem like there is a disconnect between the players and the DC Joe Barry. Love has improved, but he’s not enough to overcome performances like that.

Tampa Bay 📈

Great overall gameplan knowing that they were a bit susceptible defensively. Again a hat tip to an OC; Dave Canales (Geno Smith’s QB coach last year in Seattle) has this team looking good. I don’t think Baker can actually win Comeback Player of the Year, but he’s in the mix of also-rans and that’s not nothing. Dave is going to get a reputation.

Dallas 📉

Not being able to make adjustments during the game seems like a terrible trait to have when you’ll be going up against some fairly sharp coaching staffs in the NFC playoffs. No real plan on either side of the ball to get back in the game vs Buffalo. Maybe they truly are the Quad-A baseball player.

Quarterback Changes

• Atlanta: Ridder out, Heinicke in - No real adjustment for me here, I’m maybe a half-point lower for Heinicke. They both are liabilities to turn it over too often.

• Pittsburgh: Mitch to Mason - One-point downgrade for my Steelers number based on the QB switch. I thought it would be more, but man Mitch has been bad.

• Jaguars: Beathard possible? - A five-point adjustment is about where I’ll be for this one. The market has moved roughly four points from the look-ahead line, but that’s clearly a number that’s sitting on the fence and some of that should be based on Tampa’s performance as well.

• Houston: Still no Stroud - Obviously an upgrade if he goes this week, but it seems very, very unlikely. Keenum wasn’t great last week, much tougher task this week vs a Cleveland defense. Dropped ‘em six points last week when I thought it was going to be Davis Mills and I’m going to keep it there for Keenum.

• NY Jets: Wilson Concussed - Small downgrade to Siemian (roughly one point). Ideally, this is a Trevor Siemian vs Jacoby Brissett game (I bet some Washington +3), but I don’t think Riverboat Ron will deliver for me.

• Tennessee: Levis Injury - Just in case it turns out he’s injured worse than reported, I would have Malik Willis as a one-point downgrade, and going back to Tannehill should be closer to a four-point upgrade, but I’ve written down three as my move since I don’t think that ankle is 100%.

Updated Projections

Updated simulations using Christopher Davis’ 2023 NFL Season Simulator.

Seattle and Indy getting wins was massive for their chances. Tampa Bay stays as my favorite to win the NFC South, and Jacksonville has a tenuous grasp as my leader for the AFC South.

If the chalk holds for division champs, I’d have the wildcards as:

AFC: Cleveland, Buffalo, Indianapolis

NFC: Dallas, Seattle, Los Angeles

Tiebreakers will be big in three weeks. The mess of 10-win teams in the AFC could be epic.

🚨Podcast Tonight🚨

First off, a small favor: if you have a second, go give us a vote! The podcast was nominated for an award this year!

Awards or not, we’ll be right back here grinding through a FULL slate of games ahead of the holiday. Maybe you have a long weekend: if you can’t join us live, you can always consume it in podcast form tomorrow morning.

MVP

Probably realistically just down to two and I’m not even sure if Lamar is in the conversation without the “benefit” of having the 49ers on the schedule. If San Fran romps at home, it’s probably over. Dak, Hurts, CMC, and Tua don’t feel like they have real paths to overtaking Purdy. I believe the Josh Allen number is where it’s at simply due to liability after everyone bet it over the past few weeks at bigger numbers.

COY

Early in the year, I was pretty convinced that it was going to be a two-horse race between Campbell and McDaniel, but coming around the turn and heading for the line, we’ve got like nine viable candidates here!

• Steichen or Ryans running the table/winning the South feels like enough to get it as first-year coaches.

• Campbell beating the Vikings twice and winning the division with a 12-5 record is probably the winner if Jacksonville gets the division. Running the table by also beating the Cowboys might be the coup de grace.

• McDaniel and Shannahan likely need nothing from the previous two points to happen to have a chance.

• Stefanski has HOU, NYJ, CIN left. A 12-win season with Joe Flacco as your closer? Maybe a knock against him is being someone who’s won it already.

• Harbaugh seems mispriced. I don’t see him winning this nearly as often as the odds imply.

• Zac Taylor would need to run the table similar to Stefanski to really get into the mix, but with a week 17 game at Arrowhead is seems less likely

• McVay is a fun name to talk about, but unless they get to play against Sam Darnold when they head to SF in week 18, their ceiling is likely 9-8, which isn’t enough in this loaded field. Also a previous winner.

Both Rookie of the Year Races are over

Both C.J. Stroud and Jalen Carter are listed at -6000 at FanDuel right now.

DPOY

Parsons lost a little ground to the AFC North boys last week. My vote would be for Garrett if that were a thing I was allowed to do.

Three-man race as always and all three men have some opportunities to shine with some national stand-alone games coming up over the next few weeks (pending flexing).

T.J. Watt will play Cincy in the Saturday afternoon game this weekend, Garrett gets the Jets’ porous OL next Thursday in primetime and the Cowboys will host Detroit on December 30th in a Saturday night matchup.

OPOY

Tyreek missing the game last week has given CMC a clear lead. These numbers have essentially flipped from last Wednesday. I fear that sitting another week may be the end of this. 2,000 yards is dead, but seeing Tua without Tyreek should still count for something.

CBPOY

I think the ranked-choice voting hurts everyone not named Damar here. The 2nd and 3rd place votes will be all over the place, but I can’t imagine anyone not putting Hamlin as at least the runner-up. He may not even need the majority of the 1st place votes (he likely gets most of them though)

Last Thing: Week 16 Clinching Scenarios

As the norm, a few of these are pretty straightforward, and a few are a wild mess of nonsense situations where four games end in a tie on Sunday. Just going to leave them here if you’re interested.

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