TNF Quick Betting Notes

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Market

This was a 49ers -3 last week in the lookahead lines as well, opening slightly lower at -2.5 last Sunday. Initially bet down pretty hard before some San Francisco money showed up, pushing the -1.5/2 back all the way out to -3.

The total has mostly been one way on the way up to 49.5. Lookahead price was 47.5, reopening there and seeing action to the over and getting as high as 50 at some places before finding some resistance.

Injuries

Injuries matter in every game, but this one has been especially impactful.

The 49ers have once again ruled out LT Trent Williams (ankle). They will also be without OL Ben Bartch (ankle) and S Malik Mustapha (shoulder).

DE Nick Bosa (hip, oblique), DT Khalil Davis (knee), and RB Isaac Guerendo (foot) are listed as questionable. I do wonder about Bosa, even if he is active. We’ve seen other pass rushers on the roster, but they are quietly limited to 10-15 snaps. Guerendo only got one limited practice in this week. If he can’t go, Patrick Taylor Jr. will likely get the first snaps at tailback.

LB Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) is also listed as questionable but needs to be activated off the IR in order to play. Shanahan didn’t make any promises.

The Rams have ruled out CB Cobie Durant (chest) and TE Tyler Higbee (knee)

They also have a half dozen players listed as questionable: TE Davis Allen (shoulder), DE Tyler Davis (calf), T Alaric Jackson (knee), C Beaux Limmer (knee), WR Demarcus Robinson (shoulder), and WR Jordan Whittington (shoulder).

Jackson and Limmer are starters up front, so this offense could be in a bit of a bad spot if they are unable to go. The depth at WR/TE may not matter as much considering the top options, but it’s still nice to have capable pass-catchers behind Puka & Kupp.

Matchup

First off: there is a chance we get some weather tonight. Should be some rain showers in the 1st half of the game, but they aren’t looking substantial. The winds will be in the 10mph range.

My Ratings:

San Francisco: 16th-rated offense, 11th-rated defense
Los Angeles: 11th-rated offense, 22nd rated defense

My Fair Pricing for tonight: San Francisco -1.5 (my updated ratings)

The absence of Trent Williams again is interesting for a Rams defense that can look pretty bad at times. They have the 5th highest hurry percentage in the league, but with the back end unable to maintain coverage on the opposing receivers and backs, just the 21st-ranked sack rate. Some of that is obviously QB-dependent but the eye test certainly says that the Rams pass rush can cause problems against the right matchups. Some are worried that Jared Verse has hit the infamous (and possibly fictitious) “rookie wall”

I agree with the directionality of the total. With Cobie Durant out and Brock Prudy looking pretty much mistake-free last week, the 49ers' passing game should be effective again, even if the running back room is down to its fourth or fifth option. Opportunistic and aggressive may have to be the game plan for the Rams, as sitting back may yield the same long-term result without the upside of some chaos or turnovers.

Depsite it being only one game in a full season of data, the 44-42 win really has a lot of folks questioning and downgrading this defense. In the same spirit though, I suppose we can also continue to upgrade the Rams’ offense.

Puka Nacua keeps impressing us with some amazing catches, showcasing body control that reminds us of a professional contortionist! While the run game faced some challenges last week, there’s a good chance Kyren Williams will find it a bit easier against the San Francisco front. They currently rank near the bottom of the league in EPA per play, success rate, and first downs allowed on the run.

Maybe I’m talking myself into an over here.

The crime here is that both of these offenses are playing at a super high level coming in, and the loser will have a very small chance of making the playoffs.

The Bears’ pass rush was nothing to sneeze at, and the 49ers' offense handled it with aplomb. It was a hell of a win for the Rams last week, even if they did give up gobs of points themselves (against the likely MVP).

Final note: With Deebo acting a damn fool on Twitter, does he get a squeaky wheel game, or is he targeted less by the QB/OC he threw under the bus?

Betting

A bad week of betting (last week was rough) always makes me hesitant to jump back into the fray, but an edge is an edge, and this +3 is a bit too much in a divisional game where I think the Rams have the superior offense. Hoping for a straight up win, but expecting a close game either way.

BET: Rams +3 -115

good luck whatever you’re betting!

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