TNF: Steelers vs Browns

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Market

Lookahead lines were around Steelers -4 or even -4.5, and this did reopen Sunday night similarly before seeing immediate Cleveland money take this down to 3.5, where we sit now. There was some back and forth between 3.5 and 4 during the week.

The lookahead total was 41.5 at one point, re-opening at 41 and getting hammered down as it became clear that the weather report would be ugly. This was as low as 36 before seeing some buyback on the over as the wind appears to possibly be a little lighter.

Injuries

Just two were ruled out on the reports for each team.

The Steelers will be without OLB Alex Highsmith for the 2nd straight game (ankle) and have also ruled out CB Corey Trice Jr., who is working his way back from injury and will be activated off the IR ahead of his likely return soon.

The Browns ruled out TE Geoff Swaim (concussion) earlier this week. The bigger injury is at left tackle, where Dawand Jones has gone to the IR, and Jedrick Wills has also been ruled out with a knee injury. This leaves the Browns starting Germain Ifedi to block Winston’s blind side. He’s an experienced player but has spent most of his time on the right side.

Matchup

Let’s start with the weather. Wet. Cold. Windy. Cleveland.

My Rankings:

Steelers: 16th ranked offense, 6th ranked defense
Browns: 24th ranked offense, 15th ranked defense

Biggest matchup disparity: Steelers Run Defense (7) vs Cleveland Ground Game (31)

Cleveland's offense is very pass-heavy even after trading away WR1 Amari Cooper, and with an able-bodied QB at the helm, it’s been improving. They may have to rely on Winston in this one if they are trailing, but I would love to see this run game start to look a bit more like last year’s version. They’ve struggled all year (to be fair, Chubb was out to start the season), and this may not be the spot to get right. Pittsburgh’s defense has one of the lowest usage of heavy boxes in the league, yet still rates out highly for me in most run stop metrics.

Another “wish this looked more like last year’s team” for the Browns is certainly the defense. They have pieces, but it’s not all coming together for some reason. Maybe Myles Garrett can get a little fired up after he had some words about T.J. Watt and his reaction to the DPOY award last season.

As for the Steelers, the defense is great. Not breaking news there. Even without Highsmith, this pass rush is a problem (more so for teams on their third-string LT), and the coverage unit continues to improve. They rank 8th in opponent EPA/pass play and 5th in completion percentage over expected.

I think it’s the offense that’s clearly the big surprise this season.

Russ-aissance ‘24 is in full display, and folks fading it have been doing so at their own peril. I personally wonder how sustainable this will be against a tough final stretch against all of their divisional opponents with the added distraction of the in-season Hard Knocks cameras. I trust in Tomlin, but Russ still takes too many sacks and relies on some tough deep balls. I would think he runs up against a good defensive coordinator or two over the next two months and has some down games. Hell, they didn’t score a TD last week against what’s been shown to be a leaky secondary, maybe the train is already starting to slow down a bit. I mentioned it yesterday, but I’ve added a position on the Ravens to win the division, so an upset tonight would be greatly appreciated by Jameis and the boys.

I still think Pittsburgh is a deserving playoff team; I just can’t quite get them to the point of being a legit Super Bowl contender (yet).

Betting

Absolutely disgusted with myself, but I cannot find a way to make Pittsburgh 5+ points better on a neutral field than Cleveland right now. The Browns have underperformed the past couple of times out, but their ceiling is the team that beat the Ravens at home in week eight. I guess I’m hoping for an ugly, low-scoring, gross one tonight.

My Bet: Browns +3.5 🤢

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