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- The Monday After
Three big things that stuck out for me yesterday.
Will Levis should be benched. This is a Colts defense that’s been sliced, diced, julienned, and deep-fried by everyone. Not having a better day is a massive indictment. I don’t know that you gain much by going to Rudolph, but I do know that Levis doesn’t seem to be the long-term answer. I’ve given up on the Watson benching, so this will be my new crusade.
We were all too worried about Drake Maye. He wasn’t great, but he got a bunch of playing time and looked competent at times. I hear the arguments for it being bad for him to play with such a poor line/offense; I just don’t subscribe to them. I want to see rookies play as soon as they are ready; it’s up to coaches to make sure they are put in a place to succeed. Looking forward to seeing him in a standalone spot Sunday morning.
Yeah, they lost, but the Commanders passed the sniff test. After playing three really bad defenses in a row, followed by whatever the Browns are, I was still a bit worried that you, me, and the market in general were too high on Washington. He’s good, they’re good (on offense), but likely come back to earth on a couple of things:
Huge fan of Jayden Daniels and the Commanders offense this year. That said, there's going to be some regression on 4th downs:
10-for-10 conversions, +32.4 EPA on those plays
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___)
2:03 PM • Oct 14, 2024
My best take ahead of Sunday
I thought Green Bay's offense would have a nice day, and they certainly did. They knocked out a 59% success rate on dropbacks, 30+ points, and everyone who was healthy was getting involved.
Hell, the rookie even missed a kick and they slid into garbage time a little earlier than my liking, but Packers Team Total Over wasn’t really a sweat. Injuries to the WRs seem to be a recurring theme from last year, but the whole offense showed up yesterday versus a bad defense and did what good teams do: thump. Two thumbs up, now just fix the pass rush (0 sacks this week).
My worst take ahead of Sunday
lol, the Cowboys? Virtually nothing good to take away from last night for Dallas. I didn’t expect the defense to be able to shut down what Detroit does, but this Detroit defense, at home, was ripe for the picking. Dallas’ offensive play calling and execution were atrocious and the game was quickly out of reach. It was probably over sooner, but the first five drives ended with a FG, an end zone pick, two punts and a turnover on downs. Not a recipe to keep up with a top offense.
My Good take that didn’t work out
My only other loss was on the Eagles, and I’m not so sure they fit here, although the kick return was roughly an 8-point EPA swing, so I guess even looking like a bad team, they deserved better against a REALLY dismal Browns team. Shoutout Myles Garrett for giving his all, that block was pretty nuts.
They did the Giants FG block, shoving down the snapper and had Myles Garrett jump over lol
If executed right, it’s unstoppable
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis)
6:24 PM • Oct 13, 2024
Lookaheads from Friday did well! Tampa is down to +3.5, the Rams out to -5.5, the Vikes are testing -2, and the CAR/WAS total is up to 51.5/52. Maybe I’m betting at guessing two weeks out than on Sunday mornings. Long ways to the close, but I’ll take it.
Market
Jets money for the most part, but nothing crazy. This opened Bills -2.5 after last week’s losses by both teams, and has been pushed down to -1.
This total was 42 last Sunday and was bet down initially but has seen some game day money to the over and it pushing back up to 41.5
Injuries
The Bills
Out
DT Ed Oliver (hamstring)
Questionable
RB James Cook (toe)
WR Khalil Shakir (ankle)
DT Austin Johnson (oblique)
CB Taron Johnson (forearm)
New York Jets
Out
Michael Carter II (back)
Questionable
TE Tyler Conklin (hip)
LB CJ Mosley (toe)
Matchup
Boy does this one stink to try and figure out. Fresh off a trip to London with no bye week in sight, the Jets and interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich will host the Bills for a massive divisional game in a season that’s somehow slipping away.
Meanwhile, the Bills have a few meaningful injuries. Josh Allen likely skated right past concussion protocol somehow, and neither team looks like a real threat to the actual “good teams” of the AFC.
Last time out we saw pretty pitiful performance by both of these QBs. Some of Rodgers’ stats didn’t look so bad, but the turnovers were very meaningful and cost them any shot at getting a signature win. I know he can play better than that, and I have obviously seen better days out of Josh Allen, but when it comes down to it, the Jets have the better defense.
Interim Bump vs Nasty Travel spot. You get to decide which matters more.
Betting
I did use the Jets in contest picks and lean that way, but I make this line roughly a pk’em and don’t see a big edge in the side or total. In the interest of making Monday interesting, I will play some props for what could be a new-look Jets offense under new OC Todd Downing.
Every article about him alludes to how good he had the Tennessee run game going when he was with the Titans; I tend to think it may have been personnel-related. If this becomes a run-heavy slog, I’ll be a little disappointed.
Nothing real sharp today I suppose as I see plenty of folks trying to guess as to how this Jets team will look. I’m rolling with Aaron having increased latitude to control the plays and playing some Lazard.