Was a slow week for updating prices, not a ton of heavy-handed moves were needed outside of deciding how big the gap from Burrow to Jake Browning is (I think it’s harder to answer since Burrow wasn’t 100%, but I’m going with a 7.5 point drop).

The biggest adjustments I made this week (again, that aren’t the Bengals)

Miami 📈

Seems obvious enough, but I didn’t take what I saw on film or on paper seriously enough after week one versus the Chargers, and I paid the price. To go on the road and adjust to the Pats defensive scheme like they did was impressive as hell. I moved them up just shy of a full point from last week’s numbers. They are my largest adjustment from preseason power ratings in the AFC.

Other upgrades: SF, DAL, WAS, ATL

Houston 📉

Another obvious one, but if you start to sort out the garbage time stuff as well as the fact that they were the beneficiary of a couple of things that should have helped:

1. what could turn out to be Lamar’s worst game of the year while learning his new system

2. Getting to face a backup QB for a large portion of a home game last week

it’s not great. Moved them down into essentially a tie for the cellar with Arizona. Offensive efficiency is struggling anywhere even close to neutral game states. I had them low to start, so they are not my largest adjustment down from pre-season. Funny enough, that distinction belongs to a team that won on Monday Night.

Other downgrades: CLE, PIT, DET, LV

There is no chart here, there just aren’t that many guys who can win this.  

I really thought we were heading into a two-man race very early with Parsons and Garrett but breaking the Steelers’ all-time sack record and being in the right place to scoop and score the winning TD on primetime will do wonders for your odds

The Contenders:

Parsons was the favorite to start, will likely continue to be the favorite, and has another tasty matchup this week vs. Arizona. Outside of the “why hasn’t this guy won one yet” factor we laid out before the season, Parson’s biggest advantage over the other two might end up being the team he plays for.

If the Cowboys keep rolling offensively once they start playing some good teams, it will just compound the chances for Micah to accumulate stats. Teams playing from behind in obvious passing situations for big chunks of games are a dream for his stat line upside.

I think the Myles Garrett price has probably gotten a little too big (there were 16/1s available early this week apparently) and might be worth a tickle, especially if you have preseason liability on either of the top two. I’m sitting pat with Micah for now.

While it’s painfully obvious pretty early on who’s going to be a part of things with the offensive rookies, it’s very much worth watching the usage rates for the guys on the other side of the ball as this market takes shape

The Only tickets I’m holding so far are Lukas Van Ness and Will McDonald at some bigger prices. Obviously not thrilled about their usage so far.

Some quick notes and one bet I made:

• Ivan Pace Jr. is sort of elite right now for a bad defense and saw his usage jump way up from the first week to the second. Not sure how live he actually is, but if he keeps this up, the media hype may embrace his story of being undrafted. If I can hunt down something north of 50/1 this afternoon, I’ll dip my toes.

• Brian Branch is a bit of a sell, probably just listed this high due to taking some action after week 1 with his return TD.

• Devon Witherspoon’s usage rate is listed at 44.9% but includes missing all of week one. He started in week 2 and saw 66 snaps.

I’m making a case for a small bet on Christian Gonzalez. To quote my colleague and defensive betting aficionado, Ryan Noonan: “Pats are tough to project playing time, Bill rarely plays anyone over 90% of the snaps, so a rookie playing 100% from day 1 is a tell”

You can find prices as high as +1200 from what I’ve seen and he checks the boxes for usage and stats, and will continue to get a boost as “being part of a top defense”.

Not a defensive award but I already had the header made, so here we are.

Todd Bowles moving up is pretty interesting, but that sort of thing tends to correct itself when you play the Eagles and Saints defenses the next two weeks. John Harbaugh won this award in 2019 with a four-game improvement over the year before in the “Lamar Year”. A win would have been great for Matt Lafluer, but at least the lions lost, right? The rest of the middle of the pack seems about right with the top three on the board seemingly forming the early top-tier.

Before the season I laid out seven names that I thought could feasibly win the award, with some devil’s advocate counterpoints as to how they wouldn’t and the paths seem to be going in the direction predicted so far.

From a newsletter a few weeks back:

So, if you’re looking to enter the market at this point, barring a name deeper down the board, I guess who need to ask yourself which is the most likely

1. Tua stays healthy and the offense keeps rolling

2. The Lions overcome their defense and win a horrid NFC North

3. Ridder improves and all these offensive weapons continue to unlock

Yeah, they could all three happen I suppose. I’d guess if you put me on the spot I’d defer to McDaniel, but not by much over Campbell.

🚨Schedule Adjustment Announcement🚨

Drew is still vacationing somewhere in Europe, so we’re doing things a little early this week.

5 PM EST we’ll go over each and every game, what we’ve bet, what to watch for, and try to answer any questions you have along the way. Jump in or catch it in podcast form tomorrow morning.