NFL Kickoff: Chiefs vs Lions

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Obviously one huge story here, and we’re still very much in the dark on exactly where Kelce’s knee is.

The market had been sitting at Chiefs -6.5/7 for a bit now with a total creeping up to 55. The surprise news of Kelce’s injury took KC down to as low as a 4-point favorite and the total all the way down to 52.5

There’s since been a little correction to the current prices, but the uncertainty around the reigning MVP’s favorite target still casts a pall over tonight’s opening game.

I won’t have a bet on the side or total in this one, but part of me wonders if at the end of the day, I’ll feel dumb not taking the discount with the world’s best QB, at home, against a non-playoff team from last year. Kelce matters, and so does Chris Jones, but it’s still Andy Reid with a good chunk of time to prepare against a very questionable secondary unit in Detroit.

My Favorite Bet

After spending too much time sorting out the pecking order for the receivers on this roster, a prop I did like was Marquez Valdes-Scantling to go over his yardage total.

With Juju gone and Kelce likely sidelined, he should naturally get more targets than he did last year, and as is often the case with him, deeper targets. He averaged 16.4 yards per reception last season and 45 snaps per game. With a bump in usage and a weak secondary to go up against, I like him to overperform tonight (hat tip Connor Allen for prodding me into the alt over rather than laying juice)

MVS Alt Receiving Yards, 60+ yards +188 (FanDuel)

The return of real football means the return of the most fun betting market in the entire universe. I’ve been digging into the data on every touchdown scored in the last season by team, every touchdown given up by teams in the last season, red zone usage, and snap percentage. Even dug into some fantasy stuff since it’s semi-relevant here.

The fun part: Most of that may be useless when a team’s best receiver gets hurt two days before the game and has everyone guessing at exactly what the offensive game plan will even look like.

My theory is obviously more balls to the wideouts and maybe even a few more carries for the back than normal, but it’s not as if they aren’t allowed to use a tight end anymore. Noah Grey and Blake Bell are on this roster. Last year Detroit gave up over 20% of their touchdowns to tight ends, again about th1t 16% league average. The rub is that their prices have been massacred over the past 48 hours.

On the other side, obviously, the Lions scored a large amount of their TDs with their RBs last year (50% compared to 33% league average), while KC’s defense was stingy in this regard, only giving up 12 rushing TDs to backs. KC instead had difficulties keeping WRs out of the end zone, giving up 45% to wideouts (league average 36%.)

Going to lean on both teams here, as they both ranked highly in the first TD ratio rankings. Detroit was the first TD scorer in 11 of their 17 games in 2022, KC 12 of 17.

My Bets:

Yesterday I went over OPOY looks I liked, and since someone took the time to bellyache that “my list” (screenshot of the top of the oddsboard from FanDuel) didn’t include Josh Jacobs (he’s 60/1), I will give you the FULL 32 coaches for this one. Another funny award since it isn’t actually “Who’s the best coach”, but more “Who’s the coach that we’re excited about right now”. This is quickly evidenced by the first and last names listed (tonight’s two head coaches).

Favorite Dan Campbell has never won a division, made the playoffs, and has just one winning season

Longest-Odds-Haver Andy Reid has won two Super Bowls in the past four years and will almost certainly become the 4th man ever to reach 250 regular season wins later this fall.

But, as I previously espoused when I made a case for Matt Eberflus, there are a few ways to win this, and already being a Hall of Famer with a team favored to win it all isn’t one of them.

My unifying theory on how to win coach of the year with some recent examples:

1. Eye-popping success in the form of the W-L record (Harbaugh 14-2 in 2019)

2. “The Last Guy Sucked” turnaround (Daboll playoff berth last year after the string of bad NYG coaches)

3. In the absence of the first two: actually give it a good coach who’s been impressive for years (Vrabel in 2021)

So here’s a handful of guys with a reason they CAN and a reason they WON’T":

Dan Campbell

Can: he’s favored in the market for the reason, the Lions have been a long-suffering team, and we did the same thing in 2020 when Stefanski ended the Browns’ 18-year playoff drought.

Won’t: he still may have a very bad defense in a division with teams ascending on the offensive side of the ball. Winning the division may be necessary for him to get this award

Sean Payton

Can: The “big win improvement” narrative can go a long way, and the Broncos only won 5 games last year. If he gets credit for fixing Russ and they find 11 wins and a wildcard, he’s in the mix for sure

Won’t: Russ just may be washed… and a middling team that misses the playoffs keeps him from even being considered.

Arthur Smith

Can: Another name that the media likes a ton and he’s in a spot where breaking a 5-year playoff drought by winning a soft division and “reinventing” the offense works.

Won’t: Ridder can hold this team back if he isn’t the guy and we could instead find Smith on the offseason Hot Seat list if the offense sputters.

Matt Eberflus

Can: Long runway in the “won this many more games than last year” department coming off a 3-14 season. May be able to get this without having to take the division, a 9 or 10-win wildcard team would have the Windy City buzzing

Won’t: The defensive rebuild is still a big old work in progress and Justin Fields is a bit of a project yet. His looking like the Bears’ long-term starter is a need to get this done.

Matt Lafluer

Can: Easy narrative for the media to gobble up here: “Rodgers moved on and the team from Titletown didn’t skip a beat.” Winning with Love answers the question of who was responsible for the success over the past 4 years to some folks.

Won’t: They have a bad defensive coordinator and already have injuries in their young WR corps. Winning the division may not be a prereq for a win, but they’d at least need a good record and wildcard berth.

Mike McDaniel

Can: This offense looks sick on paper and they have a legitimate shot to win their first division title since 2008. The Media already likes him, which is a dumb reason to win, but it helps.

Won’t: Tua’s melon gets another couple of knocks and he’s trying to do this with Mike White.

Doug Peterson

Can: Trevor Lawrence’s ascension to a top QB in this league seems imminent and with the addition of Calvin Ridley, this offense may be a very dangerous squad. Playing in a bad division heightens the ceiling with some easy wins.

Won’t: Winning the division with a 9-8 record last year can actually be a hindrance here. Simply winning a very weak division won’t be enough, the media has to view the Jags as a dangerous team, and it likely takes 12-13 wins and a top-two seed to get there.

My Bets:

I’m just such a Jags buyer that I have to take some Doug at 20/1 but also feel like there was enough meat on the proverbial bone to take Eberflus (at a worse number than currently available), again given the fact that he’s got so much room for improvement in the W-L columns from last year.

For full transparency, I do have a bet I wouldn’t recommend on Shanahan as well, likely my first bet of the year and one that will age like milk in the sun.

On Tap for Tomorrow:

Our first look back at a game all year, both defensive award markets, and some free prop bets for the weekend ahead….

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