Coming off an easy-ish first-half cover for the Jets moneyline last week had me even more pumped to start diving face-first into all the week 2 action. Sidebar: I wish they would just call it week 1 and the Hall of Fame game can be week 0 like in college but, I digress.

Quick recap on the HOF Game before we move on: Not a ton of thoughts on the Jets-Browns results, it’s a bonus game for the teams.

Mond likely lost the 3rd stringer job and obviously, nothing changed in the QB rotation for the Jets. It was nice to see some good performances for New York rookies Joe Tippmann and Will McDonald. DTR was fun, as expected.

Week 2 Begins!

You’re smart, you know how this goes, it’s an informational market for the most part and nearly every sizable move in the market follows camp news leaking out on who will start and how long they’ll play. I’ll obviously be looking at other positions, but for the next three weeks, the biggest thing will be puzzling out which QBs are suiting up and how many reps they’ll be getting.

We can often jump to conclusions in preseason games when there is some level of continuity in the QB room and coaching staff. Minnesota is a pretty good example. Three preseason games last year saw exactly zero Kirk Cousins and close to an even split between the 2nd and 3rd stringer. Since we have the same head coach and same veteran QB it’s fair to guess that it’ll be Mullins followed by Jaren Hall this week. They won’t all be that straightforward, but that’s half the fun.

So, I’ll hit on my thoughts and any bets on the Two Thursday games today, cover the Friday matchups tomorrow, and close up for the week with the eight weekend tilts in the Thursday and Friday editions. If that gets too long, it might even be in article form with the crib notes in the newsletter.

From the pressers and the updates, this one is looking like an evaluation and experience spot for C.J. Stroud, who (despite the BS coming from camp) clearly has the upper hand in the QB competition over Mills.

On the other side, per the usual, this is only in week one of eight for the Patriots’ preseason and they’ll go through the motions on the long road to eventually getting the defense rock solid again.

Quarterbacks

Texans: C.J. Stroud to start, Davis Mills to play as well.

Coach DeMeco Ryans has said the Rookie C.J. Stroud would start and when pressed for a reason just said that it’s preseason, C.J. has been practicing with the ones and it was his decision. No idea if we see any Case Keenum since he’s not really part of the QB Competition and is in more of a clipboard mentor role. He did have some thoughts on what the offense would look like this year:

Patriots: Baily Zappe, followed by some combo of Trace McSorley and Malik Cunningham.

Last year Mac Jones did start games two and three getting 6 drives between the two games, but it’s expected that, like last year, he’ll sit in week one. Zappe has seen actual reps in regular-season play but it’ll be tough to say what we’ll get after that with McSorley’s middling camp reports and Cunningham’s inexperience. From the past day or two at camp, it does appear that Malik will get some time Thursday night though.

What Else to Watch

• The offensive line is pretty messy right now for New England. It seems like most of the pieces should be ready for the regular season, but four of the five starting pieces on the projected O-Line have missed some or all of camp (+ backup tackle Calvin Anderson on the NFI list). I wonder a bit about how much playing time some of the depth pieces will see tonight and how quickly we delve into 3rd and 4th string territory in front of the Pats’ QBs. Note: Trent Brown did finally start participating in drills today.

• The depth at WR for the Pats. If you’re a New England fan mad about not getting Hopkins to bolster the WR room, what you’ve seen from Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte has to have cheered you up a bit. I could see either or both stealing time from Tyquan Thornton.

• WRs Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson headline the non-Stroud/Anderson rookie class for the Texans but I’m honestly more excited for John Metchie, who missed last season with a health scare. Last we saw him he was putting up a 96/1142/8 season with Alabama.

Betting

Nothing massive that sticks out here at first glance. After initially heading down to a pick’em there was some Texans steam on the Stroud and Jones news (taking it up to -3), while the total also ticked up.

With Houston likely sticking with Stroud for a while no matter how it looks and the other QBs that will see time I don’t have high hopes for the offenses. Couple that with the fact that I think we’ll see extra time spent by the Texans figuring out the defensive line rotation by getting some guys extra reps, I think this total could be ticking back down and will play on the under 38.5.

As I mentioned in the preamble, I’m expecting more of the same from Kevin O’Connell this preseason. This feels like something I’ll be grumbling about the next day after staying up well past my bedtime to watch a couple of teams grind out an ugly 2nd half.

Quarterbacks

Vikings: Nick Mullens followed by Jaren Hall

Brought it up earlier, but Cousins is at a point in his career where he won’t play before week 1. Likely goes for Mattison as the starting RB role is locked up as well. The 0-3 record for KOC last year coupled with how they approached the game makes it very apparent that we have completely shifted Minnesota’s preseason game plan from the Zimmer years. These games are for evaluation of depth and not getting too fancy with it.

Seahawks: Drew Lock and Holton Ahlers?

Last year at this time we were in a full-blown QB competition between Geno and Lock. They split time in week 1 of the preseason, both putting up good numbers. I had completely forgotten that Lock was forced to sit the following week with a positive COVID test (Geno and Jacob Eason would combine for 53 pass attempts and 11 points that week) and the job was all but Smith’s.

With an entrenched starter, I wonder if it’s closer to what we saw in 2021 with Russell Wilson not taking the field for the preseason at all. Without any real solid info, I’ll assume Lock plays at least the whole first half followed by the rookie.

Other Goings Ons

• Mattison is the starter, but with many (myself including) not sure about giving him a full workload, the fight for the backup RB spot in Minny is interesting. Considering the passing game appearing to be just fine and the level of the QB we’ll see, I tend to think we’ll see lots of running from the Vikes. Gotta get ‘em carries if you want to see who’s getting the job.

• Lots of youth and upside in the Seattle cornerback room, still waiting to see how that all shakes out. Rookie Devon Witherspoon is listed with the second group and may start out as a nickel/slot piece for now.

• The Seahawks have brought in a couple of different depth pieces at running back and I’d expect them all to see some play Thursday as a way to sort the wheat from the chaff.

• Boye Mafe. Widely lauded as a camp star so far, hoping to see the Big Ten product in live-action Thursday night.

Betting

Monday morning saw this get hammered from Seattle -2.5 all the way up to -5 with the total ticking up a point as well from 34 to 35.

I’d love to take Minnesota as an underdog in a spot where I think the quarterback rotations aren’t that far apart from each other, but KOC’s shown that the preseason isn’t about winning games to him.

That said, these were two pretty bad defenses that need to figure plenty out. And despite how we feel about them in the regular season, Lock and Mullens are guys who’ve gotten some real time on the field in the past, and will likely each have a high-end rookie receiver to throw to early on in this one.

I agree with the slight move to the over but can’t really justify sitting through the second half of a game that starts at 10 pm EST to watch Holton Ahlers and Jaren Hall try to get me over the hump. I like the over, but will opt for a 1st half look (which isn’t really up yet outside of the dirtiest corners of the offshore markets).

The implied price should be somewhere in the 17.5/18 range and if I can find that or better at a reasonable juice, I’ll be adding it for the nightcap.

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