Hall of Fame Game: Jets vs Browns

It’s here. The first of 49 preseason games fires off tonight and the market is already in regular season form. It’s not good, but it doesn’t matter. It’s like not eating pizza for a very long time, even a terrible gas station slice is going to be enticing as hell.

Betting Lines

SIDE: Still some -1.5’s out there for the Jets backers of the world, but the decisive move that saw the opening line of Cleveland -1.5 flip to making NY a favorite has pushed out to -2 at plenty of sportsbooks.

TOTAL: The total is essentially right back where it started after getting as low as 31.5 on Monday before a group moved on the over. This pushed it back to 33.5 and even touched 34 a couple of times before seeing any resistance.

Most of the time moves in the preseason come on the back of player availability news, and I’d assume most of this action has been attributed to Zach Wilson starting for the Jets. Additionally, there are other quarterbacks with some intriguing upside versus backup defenders in Dorian Thompson-Robinson (who ran for 645 yards in 13 games last year for UCLA) and NFLx MVP Chris Streveler (who somehow has FIVE game-tying/come-from-behind drives in preseason games).

Scoring Note: Probably a bit of a small sample size side note, but scoring to start the shorter preseason was up a bit last year. Not only did the HOF Game go over the total, but week 2, when the rest of the league joins in, saw 11 of 16 games get to the 40-point mark, and six garner 50 or more points in them. Haven’t found any real good reasons for it but there were a good handful of games that saw a ton of 2nd half scoring, seven games had at least 27 points scored after halftime.

Who and What to Expect

I just railed on about not using motivation as a reason to bet regarding the FedEx playoff chase in the PGA, but it’s tough to ignore the situations a few of these QBs are in. Most of the time motivation to win a preseason game comes from the coaches room via the game plan, but there are plenty of narratives around tonight’s handful of signal callers.

Browns: Kellen Mond 1st half, Dorian Thompson-Robinson 2nd half.

Jets: Zach Wilson starting with Tim Boyle and Chris Streveler following.

Aaron Rodgers has praised what he’s seen of Zach Wilson, and all things considered, even if he’s about what we saw last year, that’s still a few notches above what we’re normally rolling out for a ton of preseason games. It’s not often we see someone with this much real game experience playing meaningful time in the preseason kickoff game. Reports from camp say he’s making strides with new OC Nate Hackett and the aforementioned middle-aged 1st stringer, improving his “timing, rhythm, and confidence.”

On the other side, Kellen Mond pretty much acknowledged where he’s probably at without coming right out and saying it. With Watson and Dobbs locked in at the top two spots and Dorian Thompson-Robinson trending to take the 3rd spot with his rookie contract and long-term upside potential, he told reporters “You start to realize whatever you put on tape is going to be what people think of you and going to be your results.” Likely a realistic mindset that he needs to go out and execute the best he can with the backups tonight if he plans on finding a team to catch on with as the 4th QB in a room built for three.

As for when DTR takes the field: I’m a little worried and some of the quotes would lead me to believe they won’t be running very complicated concepts at that point in the game. He told reporters:

“I’m really good when it comes to the cerebral side of football things and being able to grasp a playbook and go out there and execute. But this is my first time having to call plays in the huddle, having to get it in a headset, and being able to spit it out. And we don’t have the shortest of play calls, so that’s probably the number one thing I’m going to be focusing on for sure. Making sure I can get guys lined up and making sure that everybody’s on the same page.”

Not exactly the confidence I wanted to hear to get excited about his 2nd half reps, but perhaps this will lead to him having to make some plays outside of structure, which could be a ton of fun. Plus there have been reports of plenty of rollouts in practice for all the QBs so far.

Looking past the QBs, neither team will play much in the way of starters, but there are a few younger players who will see some time and are worth watching. An already ascending defense added edge rusher Will McDonald from Iowa State in the middle of the first round, and while most scouting reports are critical of his size, he’s been an excellent pass rusher and left Ames tied for the Big 12 career sacks leader. Trivia: Who’s second (third, I suppose) on the list now. He’s playing in the NFL and put up 17.5 sacks back in 2009 (answer somewhere at the bottom).

I’m personally excited to watch McDonald’s early progress and will have to remind myself that sacking Kellen Mond after beating a backup left tackle isn’t the first step to Canton, even if it will be happening in Canton.

We’ll also hopefully learn a bit about some of the camp battles and depth that the Jets will be able to feature at the offensive line this year with Mekhi Becton reportedly getting 20-25 snaps at LT and both rookie O-linemen getting playing time to help in the evaluation process.

Other Notes

• Kickoff is at 8 pm Eastern, you can watch on NBC or Peacock

• It should be a pretty warm night with temps in the mid-80s in Canton, a light breeze, and no real concerns for bad weather.

• The excitement you’ve felt for months should wear off by about 8:15 pm after you see the 4th handoff to John Kelly Jr.

• This will be the first time we see the new kickoff rule in action. Refresher: A returner can fair catch a ball ANYWHERE behind the 25-yard line and their team will be given possession at the 25.

How I’m Betting It

I’d like to chase the steam and bet on the Jets, and really the only argument against it for me right now is that camp reports have called the offense “sloppy” so far. To be fair, it’s a pretty good defense they’ve been up against. Also, their WR1 is sitting with a dinged-up ankle and it’s a new offensive line arrangement, OC, Scheme, and QB. I can give them a bit of a pass.

No secret to the good people in the DDD Discord, but I’ll throw my lot in with Zach Wilson in the 1st half. Had planned on it and really just had to sit and wait as 1st half lines didn’t pop until this morning. The second half could be entertaining and I’d still give the Jets QB room a slight advantage there, but I like New York to start strong with Wilson at the helm.

Might instantly regret this after Wilson’s first duck, but I’ve never been overly impressed with Mond, even against preseason competition (2 TD, 3 INT, 55% completion rate in six games for the Vikings), and can get behind the Jets being the more efficient offense for the first 30.

New York Jets 1st Half Moneyline -125 (I got a slightly better price, but took too long to write this, and feel bad using a stale line)

Lots to catch up on right away, in no particular order:

Joe Burrow: Reportedly still on track to only miss the preseason and be ready for the week one opener. Was seen at practice with a sleeve on his strained calf but, wasn’t limping at all. The Bengals are a short favorite heading to Cleveland in week 1.

Cooper Kupp: Also out a few weeks after a hamstring strain in practice. The team is cautious but hopeful. The Rams are thin everywhere and the NFC West gets really soft for the 49ers if LA starts losing players.

Jimmy Garoppolo: Left practice early on Wednesday, but coaches said that there “is a plan” and he is being slowly eased in as his foot still is not 100%. The team was off Thursday, so I think we’d expect him back at the next team practice.

Calvin Ridley: The Jags had a bit of a scare when he came up with a toe injury but it appears to be a nothing-burger

Jalen Ramsey: His surgery went well, rehab is underway, and the target is sometime in December, but he’s already said he’s going to be ahead of that (I’m hopeful, but he’s not a doctor, I checked)

Seattle Running Backs: Not a ton of clarity as the timeline for a groin (Ken Walker) isn’t always clear and they are just being “cautious” for now with Zack Charbonnet. I think the takeaway here is: Please stop writing Jonathan Taylor trade articles every time a RB misses a couple of practices.

Unverified Stat:

Hard to not go with Ditka, maybe that’s just me.

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Trivia Answer: Texas A&M’s Von Miller has 33 career collegiate sacks. 28.5 coming in his final two seasons in College Station